It was a decent enough Wednesday despite the loss of my “Deadly Double” as my 11/1 “Tasty Treble” returned an overall profit of 2.3 points on the night thanks to some goals for Porto, BATE and Barcelona. I was spot on in Barcelona as the home side came from behind to win 2.1 and I was pretty pleased with the Porto tips as well on what was a good night in the Champions League but a disappointing one in the Championship with Brentford and Fulham both failing to score at home. Brentford had scored in 20 of their last 21 at home and Fulham in 13 of their last 15 but neither managed it on this night. We move on to another evening of Champions League action and I like the look of a fair number of the fixtures so I will split these previews into two parts, with my attention here on groups A and B and the second preview taking a look at groups C and D. My “Best Bets” will follow at some point later in the day. Here’s what I’ve come up with then for 3 of the 4 fixtures on offer from the first two sections. UEFA Champions League – Group A
19:45 Shakhtar Donetsk vs Paris Saint Germain = Prediction -2.2 Suggested Bets – BTTS @5/6, Draw @13/5 Key Facts * Shakthar have lost only 2 of their last 23 home fixtures, winning 18. They have won 4 of their last 5 at home. * Shakthar have lost only 1 of their last 10 home CL fixtures since 2012 * Only Bilbao beat Shakthar with the Russians avoiding defeat against teams including Chelsea (2.1), Dortmund, Man Utd, Leverkusen, Porto, Bayern Munich (all draws) * 6 of those 10 fixtures finished in draws * 4 of Shakthar’s last 15 home CL fixtures finished in a 2.2 draw – that’s 27% – 2.2 draw @16/1 * Only 2 of their last 8 CL fixtures at home have seen BTTS * Shakthar lost 4.0 at Real Madrid on match day 1 * PSG have won 8 of their last 9 away Ligue 1 fixtures * PSG have seen BTTS in 6 of their last 10 away Ligue 1 fixtures * Shakthar have scored 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 7 CL fixtures at home * PSG have kept just 3 clean sheets in 12 away CL fixtures since 2013 * PSG have won only 2 of their last 8 CL away fixtures. Final Verdict – PSG favourites but a draw could be on the cards PSG are the favourites here and are likely to score but I feel the home side can claim at least a goal as well and I’m backing BTTS based on their ability not to lose on home soil and PSG’s recent away form in this competition. Shakthar aren’t quite the same force they have been in previous years and while most will be tipping the away win here, I just have a feeling that the hosts can raise their game and earn a point while PSG may well be happy to take that back to France having beaten Malmo on match day 1. The French champions have only won 2 of their last 8 on the road in the Champions League and this could be a tricky fixture for Zlatan and co to negotiate in Ukraine. 19:45 Manchester United vs Wolfsburg = Prediction -3.2 – Suggested Bets – BTTS @4/6, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @11/10, Man Utd to score 2 or more @8/11 Key Facts * Man Utd have won 12 of their last 16 home PL fixtures * Man Utd have scored 3 or more in 9 of those 16 fixtures * They have kept only 5 clean sheets in those 16 fixtures with 8 finishing with BTTS * Man Utd have won 5 of their last 6 home CL fixtures * Man Utd are now top of the PL having won 5 out of 7, including their last 3 * Wolfsburg are 4th in the Bundesliga having won 3, drawn 3 and lost 1 so far this season * They had a bad week losing 5.1 at Bayern and then held 1.1 at home with Hannover * Wolfsburg have scored in 14 of their last 17 away fixtures * Wolfburg have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures and in 19 out of 25 going back 18 months – 68% success rate * Wolfsburg’s tough tackling midfielder Luiz Gustavo is set to miss out through injury * This match coincidentally falls 6 years to the day when this exact fixture was last played out, with United winning 2-1 at Old Trafford on that occasion. Final Verdict – Home win with goals to go with it I really like the chances of BTTS and over 2.5 goals here with United coming into form against a more than capable Wolfsburg side and we should see an exciting contest between two attacking teams. United certainly need to win having lost their opening day fixture at PSV while Wolfsburg can play with a degree of freedom and confidence having collected 3 points on match day 1 with a 1.0 home win over CSKA. Wolfsburg have lost just 1 of their last 16 fixtures, that a 5.1 thrashing at an unstoppable Bayern last week but they usually score on the road, doing so in 11 of their last 13 since April and they can give Man Utd something to think about in defence with the likes of Schurrle and Draxler supporting Dutch hit-man Bas Dost. Man Utd are now top of the PL and they should have enough quality to get the win they want @4/5 but I expect a really open game with chances at both ends so I’m taking BTTS @4/6 and BTTS and over 2.5 @11/10. 19:45 CSKA Moscow vs PSV Eindhoven = Prediction 2.1- Suggested Bets – BTTS @4/5 Key Facts * CSKA sit top of the Russian Premier League with 26 points from 10 games, with only 1 defeat so far * CSKA had not won in 7 CL home fixtures before beating Sporting Lisbon 3.1 in Moscow to qualify for this year’s group stage * CSKA have seen BTTS in 5 of their last 6 RPL fixtures * CSKA have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 5 home RRL fixtures and 6 out of 10 since April * CSKA have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 9 home CL fixtures – BTTS @4/5 * 6 of those 8 fixtures also went over 2.5 goals – Over 2.5 goals @4/5 * CSKA are prolific in the BTTS market – 16 of their last 20 CL fixtures since 2011 have seen BTTS – 82% success rate * CSKA goalkeeper Igor Akinfeev is doubtful with a knee injury. The Russia international hasn’t kept a cleansheet in the CL for 32 matches * PSV have seen BTTS in 5 of their last 6 away league fixtures * PSV have scored in 29 of their last 32 away fixtures in all competitions * They didn’t score in their last two trips to Russia though, losing 3.0 to Zenit in last year’s UEFA Europa League and 1.0 to Dinamo Moscow * PSV have scored 24 in their last 8 away league fixtures Final Verdict – BTTS has to have a good chance @4/5 CSKA’s record in this competition is reason alone to continue backing their fixtures to finish with BTTS and that’s the outcome I expect here with the home side capable of earning the 3 points as well against a less than stellar PSV. Suggested Bets CSKA Moscow vs PSV Eindhoven = Prediction 2.1- Suggested Bets – BTTS @4/5 Manchester United vs Wolfsburg =Suggested Bets – BTTS @4/6 Manchester United vs Wolfsburg – BTTS and over 2.5 goals @11/10 Manchester United vs Wolfsburg – Man Utd to score 2 or more @4/6 Shakhtar Donetsk vs Paris Saint Germain – BTTS @5/6 Shakhtar Donetsk vs Paris Saint Germain – Draw @13/5 Comments are closed.
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