So it's a big day of action across Eruope and with little form to go on t's tough to pick winners but it will become easier as the season progresses and already we’re seeing some form trends beginning to emerge in the English Championship.
It’s still early days though and I wouldn’t advise anyone tackle more than two or three of my Best Bet's while the Bookie Busters are for speculative gambles and to be played with your pocket change. So let's have a look at today's selections and remember it is the "Best Bet's" that I will be judged on and here where we base our profits and lossess. Bookie Busters Home Wins Chelsea to beat Leicester 1/5 Derby to beat Fulham 3/4 Watford to beat Leeds 3/4 Southampton to beat WBA 3/4 Swansea to beat Fulham 8/11 Acca pays at 10/1 BTTS Forest v Reading Southampton v WBA Wolves v Cardiff Dortmund v Leverkusen Acca Pays at 7/1 BTTS and Team to win Southampton to beat WBA 5/2 Derby to beat Fulham 5/2 Forest to beat Reading 11/5 43/1 Treble 4 Draws Crystal Palace v West Ham Blackburn v Bournemouth Wolves v Cardiff Everton v Arsenal Acca pays at 130/1 Anytime Goalscorers Schurlle (Chelsea) Tadic (Southampton) Sigurdsson (Swansea) 30/1 treble and another... Diego Costa Shane Long Wilfried Bony 8/1 Treble Hull v Stoke – 2.30pm
Hull entertain Stoke on Sunday following their defeat to Lokoren in the Europa league qualifying on Thursday and given that this is their first foray into European competition, the expected Sunday hangover could yet follow a team who look somewhat under prepared to deal with the rigours of both Premier League and European action this season. The loss of new signing Robert Snodgrass for 6 months is a huge blow to boss Steve Bruce and they will be surely looking to recruit some new faces before the window shuts at the end of the month if they are to cope with what is sure to be a tough season. Stoke themselves got their season underway with a hugely disappointing home defeat to relegation tips Aston Villa and will be determined to get some points on the board in this trip to Hull and with a full week to prepare for this clash I can see an away day victory on the cards although i am not yet convinced enough to back Stoke to win given that they are very much a home side, but on the handicap of plus 1 they are well priced at 11/20 and should avoid defeat at the least. Prediction Hull 1 v 2 Stoke Bo’s Best Bets Stoke not to lose – 11/20 Stoke to win – 15/8 Tottenham v QPR – 2.30PM Another London Derby for Tottenham with QPR the visitors to White Hart Lane as Harry Redknapp makes his first return to his former club since his rather acrimonious departure following all that will he won’t he nonsense regarding the England job. Harry has been up to his old wheeler dealer signings (we know he hates that term) and have recruited well in the shape of Ferdinand, Caulker and Mutch while Mauricio Isla arriving from juventus on loan represents a pretty fine coup. Given that they are also set to announce the signings of Leroy Fer and Eduardo Vargas, I am fairly confident that QPR are going to be a much better outfit than the one that departed the Premier League 2 years ago in such shameful fashion (yes I’m looking at you Joey Twitter Barton) and as such I expect a pretty good performance from them on Sunday. Spurs have yet to make any major investments in the transfer market although the recruitment of defenders Ben Davies and Eric Dier should help to make them sronger at the back although another centre forward must surely be on the managers wishlist with Roberto Soldado doing little to inspire confidence. Spurs were are also involved in Europa League action on Thursday although you would expect them to make a multitude of changes to the team that overcame Limassol in Cyprus. This could be a really good game on Sunday and I have a feeling that Harry might be the happier of the two bosses come 5pm on Sunday with the two sides having played out a rather entertaining draw and you can back QPR not to lose this one at a very decent 9/5. The draw pays at 10/3. Prediction – Tottenham 2 v 2 QPR Bo’s Best Bets BTTS – 5/6 QPR not to lose – 9/5 2.2 DRAW – 20/1 Sunderland v Man United – 5pm If Louis van Gaal thought that the rebuilding job at Man Utd would simply be a case of applying a new formation and telling people you are going to win with your trousers pulled down, then last Saturday’s defeat at home to Swansea would have been the rudest of all awakenings but as the Dutchman is surely not quite as arrogant as his public persona might suggestm, he must surely be aware of the depth of this challenge and for now the rebuilding starts here. Marcus Rojo has been brought in from Sporting Lisbon and he is sure to be an important part of Louis’s new look 3.5.2 shape but it is clear that much more will need to be done in the market if this United team are to have any chance of a top 4 position this season. Yes they were without 9 first team players last weekend but even with a full pool to choose from, this United side are clearly lacking in every area across the park. The interesting thing about this shift in formation is that it seems to cut adrift many of the clubs wingers (a problem I know too well from my time on football manager when rebuilding with a new look shape). Nani has gone home while the futures of Young, Valencia, Zaha and even the super talented Januzaj look to be in doubt. This is not going to be a quick fix and I think Van Gaal would be quite happy to come away from this game with a point and I think that is all they will get. Sunderland are still looking for that elusive striker as doubts remain about the abilities of Wickham and Fletcher to deliver enough goals to keep them in the right part of the table but with a packed house on Sunday, you can be confident that Poyet will have his men ready for this one and I fancy the Black Cats to take a point or maybe even better. Prediction – Sunderland 1 v 1 Man Utd Bo’s Best Bets – Sunderland not to lose – 23/20 Man City v Liverpool – 9pm (Monday Night) preview to follow... EPL PREVIEW – Saturday 23rd
Aston Villa v Newcastle (13.30pm) Newcastle travel to Birmingham to take on Aston Villa in the lunch time live TV game on BT Sport having lost their opening fixture to the Champions Man City while Villa will be looking to build on their terrific opening day away victory at Stoke. Many of been tipping the Villains for relegation this season but should they pick up another 3 points on Saturday then such predictions might begin to look a little hasty. Paul Lambert has brought some much needed experience into his side with the signings of bargain basement but Premier League experienced campaigners in the likes of Richardson, Cole and Senderos while Alan Hutton has been brought back into the squad following 2 years “out in the cold” Isn’t it funny how these poor relegated players get left out in the freezing cold? Although in Hutton’s case, a loan move to Real Mallorca could hardly be described as a cold affair and whether he is happy to be swapping the Balearics for Birmingham, is debatable. But I digress. I think this will be a close affair with Newcastle likely to be stronger away from home this season with their quick counter attacking style and I fancy this one to finish all square. Look for new signing Remy Caballa to provide the Geordies inspiration. Prediction – Aston Villa 1 v 1 Newcastle Bo’s Best Bets – BTTS – 4/5 Chelsea v Leicester – 4pm Chelsea looked thoroughly dominant in their away day win at Burnley on Monday night and they face another of the league’s new boys in the shape of Leicester on Saturday and another 3 points should be in the bag for Jose’s men. Leicester did brilliantly to get a point in a 2.2 draw with Everton (as predicted by Bo) at home but a trip to the Bridge should represent “a bridge too far” for a side that will be relying on their home form to keep them in the division. Chelsea meanwhile, my pre season tips to win the league look to be purring in attack with Jose’s “maestro” Cesc Fabregas conducting an orchestra containing fellow new boy Diego Costa, World Cup winner Andre Schurlle and the ever improving Will.I.an. I expect all 3 to be singing from the same hymn sheet come Saturday. I expect nothing other than a very comfortable 3 points for Chelsea and a few goals to boot. Diego Costa should find the target in his home debut and I would also suggest Schurle to find the net if he starts as I expect. Prediction – Chelsea 3 v 0 Leicester Bo’s Best Bets – Chelsea -1 goal to beat Leicester – 4/6 Andre Schurle to score anytime – 7/4 Diego Costa to score anytime – 4/5 Crystal Palace v West Ham – 4pm Both teams got their seasons underway with narrow defeats to respective North London rivals Arsenal and Tottenham and both will see this as an opportunity to get some points on the board. Palace, were expected to name Malky Mackay as their new boss to replace the outgoing Tony Pullis until it turned out that he sent some rather racist, homophobic and sexist texts with his pals during his time at Cardiff. Lovely timing by resident villain Vincent Tan. All part of the pressure according to the LMA. Staggering response from the former Celtic defender :) I think this statment by the LMA on behalf of Mackay deserves to be quoted. "These were two text messages sent in private at a time Malky felt under great pressure and when he was letting off steam to a friend during some friendly text message banter," added the statement. "The LMA does not condone in any way any potential breach of equal opportunities laws but would also point out that out of over 10,000 text messages and 70,000 documents produced over a long period of time it may not be a complete surprise that some inappropriate comments can sometimes be made by employees, like Malky, working under great pressure in highly charged situations." Mackay was said to be "very concerned about seriously inaccurate and misleading reports" of his involvement. "It has never been alleged that he wrote any homophobic or sexist messages and he has confirmed he did not do so," said the statement. So, let's sum this up. He was racist but that's ok because he's under pressure and it's just banter and "it has never been alleged that he wrote any homophobic or sexist messages" despite those allegations being all over the press this morning. Clearly it has been alleged and the very fact they are attempting to defend the man from his comments leaves a foul stench. and now the Scotsman's future as a Premier League manager is in serious doubt. It never fails to amaze me that these idiots are in charge of football clubs. Why on earth would you ever use racist/sexist/homophobic and or offensive language on a company phone? I'm sure plenty of us have indulged in some racist horseplay or sexist jibes with close friends but to do so pn a phone owned by your boss hows a real level of stupidity prevalent in the game. But forgetting all that nonsense, Palace had a terrific home record last year while West Ham were pretty rank on the road so you would be forgiven for marking this down as a home win but given the troubles of both sides in recent weeks, I can see a share of the spoils with both still looking to find their way after poor pre season preparations and Palace still scraping the barrel for a new boss. Tim Sherwood is poised with his mobile in hand. Much depends on whether Palace will still have the same ruggedness without Pullis that they had in abundance last season and the signing of veteran defender Brade Hangelaand looks to be a fine investment to this department, while West Ham badly need new boys Ener Valencia and Mauro Zarate to start firing in attack if they are to avoid another relegation scrap. That being said, I am going for the draw but I would not be surprised if The Eagles do snatch the win. Prediction Crystal Palace 1.1 West Ham Southampton v West Brom – 4pm Despite all the gloom at St Mary’s over the summer, Southampton actually looked pretty decent in their away day defeat to Liverpool last Sunday and were certainly unfortunate not to take a point, and while it will undoubtedly take some time for all of the new signings to bed in, I expect the Saints to find themselves in mid-table comfort for much of the season and they can start that process by taking 3 points against a West Brom side under new management in the shape of long term coach, Alan Irvine. The Baggies played pretty well in their home draw with Sunderland and while I expect this one to be close, the home side should just have the edge. I doubt I will be backing the Saints to win though as both are still too unpredictable but BTTS at 4/5 looks to be the best bet for this one. Prediction – Southampton 2.1 West Brom Bo’s Best Bet – BTTS – 4/5 Swansea v Burnley – 4pm Swansea got their season off to the most sensational of starts on Saturday as they overturned Louis Van Gaal’s Man Utd at Old Trafford with a fine and well deserved 2.1 victory. Of course had this result happened a year ago it would have been met with a lot more shock and awe than it did last week given that Old Trafford is no longer the fortress it once was and if you are looking for a figure to blame then that pasty white bloke who featured in the Daily Mail on Sunday claiming he was not given the time to “succeed or fail” would surely be your first point of call. Fail you did Davie, as much as you would like us to believe otherwise and the rebuilding job for Van Gaal is absolutely enormous. Swansea though under Gary Monk are a much changed proposition with most of their Spaniards departing and new additions coming thick and fast, and while we cannot draw too much of a conclusion from that victory last week, i expect them to be too strong for a Burnley side who are going to have to learn fast in this league if they want to survive. A home win should be on the cards and Bony as ever is the likeliest to find the net. Prediction – 2.0 Bo’s Best Bet – Swansea to win – 4/6 Everton v Arsenal (6.30pm) Everton and Arsenal go head to head in the tea-time kickoff on Saturday with the hosts looking for a first 3 points following their opening day draw at Leicester while Arsenal, fresh from a tough clash in Istanbul will be looking to take something before the return leg at the Emirates next Wednesday. Arsenal struggled to create much on their European travels although this can largely be blamed on a truly rotten pitch and a truly rotten striker. Ok, Giroud is not THAT bad but if Wenger cannot see that his side badly lack a world class finisher then this season is unlikely to see an improvement on last season’s 4th place despite the arrival of the highly talented Alexis Sanchez. Yes the Gunners look stronger on paper than they have done for many a year but without that focal point in attack then it could be yet another year of frustration for an Arsenal support all too familiar with mid season capitulations. A world class holding midfielder and another defender is always required if they are to truly challenge for the title this year. Everton might not have improved a great deal but retaining Lukaku and Barry was absolutely vital for them to continue the good work under Bobby Martinez and I expect them to be pushing top 6 and possibly top 4 again this year. Arsenal were punished badly on their last visit to Goodison at the tail end of last season in a rousing 3.0 defeat and while I expect an improved performance in comparison to last year, I do feel that with a crucial Champions League tie to come in the week, this might be asking too much for Wenger’s men to come away with anything more than a point. An entertaining clash this looks sure to be, I think BTTS is a strong possibility and if anyone is going to win it, it should be the Blues but I still feel it is too close to call (or bet with much confidence) Prediction Everton 2.1 Arsenal Bo’s Best Bets – BTTS – 4/7 Total after week 1 - Bo 7 v 6 Lawro
Aston Villa v Newcastle - Bo says 1.1 - Lawro says 1.1 Chelsea v Leicester - Bo says 3.0 - Lawro says 2.0 Crystal Palace v West Ham - Bo says 1.1 - Lawro says 2.1 Southampton v West Brom - Bo says 2.1 - Lawro says 2.0. Swansea v Burnley = Bo says 2.0 - Lawro says 2.1 Everton v Arsenal - Bo says 2.1 - Lawro says 1,1 Hull v Stoke - Bo says 1.2 - Lawro says 0.1 Tottenham v QPR - Bo says 2.2 - Lawro says 2.0 Sunderland v Man Utd - Bo says 1.1 - Lawro says 1.2 Man City v Liverpool = Bo says 2.1 - Lawro says 1,1 It was a mixed night with plenty of good selections but ultimately no real joy although this time I landed my "sexy single" but the "tasty treble" came up short thanks to a horrible pitch in Turkey as Arsenal were held to a 0.0 draw (although I was correct in my assessment that this would be a tough affair for Arsenal) and Rotherhams failure to hit the net at home to Watford also cost me my BTTS treble with all of the other teams netting. Still it was a day where we didn't lose any money and at this early stage of the season that isn't too bad!b Here is a brief rundown of my bets so far.
Sexy single Norwich v Blackburn – BTTS 4/5 - WINNER 3 Points (30 Euros) to return 54 Euros Tasty Treble Bournemouth v Forest – BTTS 4/6 - won Salzburg to beat Malmo – ¼ - won Besiktas v Arsenal BTTS 5/6 - lost 1.5 points (15 euros) – to return 56 Euros BTTS Treble Norwich v Blackburn 4/5 - won Bournemouth v Forest 4/6 - won Rotherham v Watford 8 /13 - lost 1 point (10 Euros) - to return 48 Euros Total Staked - 55 euros Total Returned - 54 euros Overall Balance is 989 Euros (starting balance of 1000) It was a frustrating night where I correctly predicted a lot of the BTTS matches and also picked young Callum Wilson and Gonzalo Higuain to score but we couldn't turn these good selections into profit. It was a tough night and it will get a lot easier in the coming weeks. As you can see from the graphic above, it was a fine start for bobreaksthebookies in the Fantasy Football competition as I stormed to the top of the charts in the 2 leagues ongoing at my work, (no bragging yet...) and every week I will try to post a little preview of my team selection and who should be in or not in the team as the case may be.
I was a bit gutted at having changed Giroud and Sanchez for Diego Costa and Gylfi Sigurdsson and both are players I want in my team. I did not expect Giroud to be left on the bench and this cost me the chance of an even bigger points score but still it was a good start to the competition and long may it continue. Sexy single
Norwich v Blackburn – BTTS 4/5 3 Points (30 Euros) to return 54 Euros Tasty Treble Bournemouth v Forest – BTTS 4/6 Salzburg to beat Malmo – ¼ Besiktas v Arsenal BTTS 5/6 1.5 points (15 euros) – to return 56 Euros BTTS Treble Norwich v Blackburn 4/5 Bournemouth v Forest 4/6 Rotherham v Watford 8 /13 1 point (10 Euros) - to return 48 Euros ...and now "Bo's Bookie Busters" Anytime Goalscorer Treble Ronaldo to score anytime - 5/6 Willson (Bournemouth) to score anytime - 6/4 Demba Ba (Besiktas) to score anytime - 13/5 Treble Pays at 16/1 (Consider doubles and trebles) BTTS and Match Result Bournemouth to beat Forest and BTTS – 11/4 Real Madrid to beat Atletico and BTTS – 9/4 Norwich v Blackburn – BTTS and draw 7/2 Pays at 54/1 Bo's Dull Draws Blackpool v Brentford Norwich v Blackburn Shef wed v Millwall Bolton v M’boro Pays at 125/1 Bo's Awesome Acca Salzburg v Malmo – Salzburg -1 – 8/11 Rotherham to beat Watford – 2/1 Reading to beat Huddersfield 5/6 Brora to beat E Fife – 7/5 (tipped up by knowledgable Scottish pundits) Acca Pays at 22/1 Bo's Bonkers Bet Norwich 2 v 2 Blackburn - 14/1 Good luck, and remember not to go crazy, maybe try 1 or 2 of my Bookie Busters and keep the stakes small! Tuesday – Championship Preview
As mentioned in my previous post there is lots of action in England tonight with my focus being on the Championship where we can start to see a little bit of form developing with all the teams having played 2 games each. Still, it is not much to go on and we won’t be risking too much on what is becoming the most competitive division in Europe and if there are bets to be had, these will be highlighted. Birmingham v Ipswich Birmingham have certainly gone downhill in recent years and while they beat Brighton on Saturday to end their worst ever run of home form, I cannot see them repeating the trick tonight against an Ipswich side that have won 1 and lost 1 so far. Prediction - 1.1 Blackpool v Brentford Blackpool are an utter mess at the moment and look dead certs to be relegated following a summer when they only had 8 contracted players just 1 week before the season began. Meanwhile, newly promoted Brentford have taken a point from their opening fixtures and are sure to be involved in the relegation dogfight as well. I can see a share of the spoils here with Blackpool especially desperate to get their first point or points of the season under new boss Jose Riga who must be wondering just what he has let himself in for this year. Prediction – 1.1 Bournemouth v N Forest This looks a good little game on paper with Bournemouth setting the early pace with 2 wins while Forest under new boss and club legend Stuart Pearce have also made a pretty decent start, recording a win and a draw from their 2 games thus far. I fancy a an entertaining, and open game in this one tonight and BTTS at 8/11 is the betting tip. Both sides featured heavily in the BTTS selections last year and I see the pattern continuing tonight. I also fancy new recruit Callum Willson to get on the score sheet for the home side and he is a super price of 6/4 to do just that. Bo’s Best Bet – BTTS – 8/13 Callum Willson to score anytime 6/4 Prediction – 3.1 Cardiff v Wigan Newly relegated Cardiff have started well enough with 4 points from 2 games and look to be one of the favourites for the division, while Uwe Rosler’s Wigan lost surprisingly at Charlton and have lost at Burton in the cup as well. I fancy the home side to just nick it. Bo’s Best Bet - BTTS 4/6 Prediction – 2.1 Charlton v Derby Charlton have started the season brightly with 4 points from 2 games, despite being many people’s tip for relegation and tonight they face one of the most fancied teams in Schteve Mcclaren’s Derby who disappointed me greatly on Saturday with their drab 0.0 draw at Sheffield Wednesday. I fancy yet another share of the spoils in this one. Prediction – 1-1 (apologies, this is getting a bit boring predicting draws!) Leeds v Brighton Both sides have their issues to contend with as Brighton arrive at Leeds without a point or a goal under new gaffer Sammi Hyppia while Leeds, under their new madcap owner Cellino, have made a slightly better start, including a 1.0 win at home to Middlesbrough following their opening day defeat. I fancy the hosts to get another 3 points tonight although this is most certainly not a match I will be betting on Prediction – 2.0 Norwich v Blackburn This has the looks of a high scoring affair and with relegated Norwich looking to bounce back to the top flight; we should see an open game at Carrow Road. Blackburn are undefeated in 14 Championship games stretching back to last season and have scored 2 in each of their last 7(seven) away games in the division. I fancy the run could continue tonight against a Norwich side still adjusting to their new division but it should be open and entertaining. Bo’s Best Bet – BTTS 4/5 Prediction – 2.2 Rotherham v Watford Newly promoted Rotherham got a fine win over fellow new boys Wolves on Saturday and they could follow that up again tonight against a Watford side so poor in their defeat at Norwich on Saturday and their away form stretching back to last season is certainly not great. I fancy both teams to find the net but it could be the hosts who snatch the points. Bo’s Best Bet – BTTS 8/13 Prediction 2.1 Sheffield Wednesday v Millwall Millwall have made a super start to the season with wins over Fulham and Leeds while their opponents Sheffield Wednesday have also made a fine start with 2 clean sheets and 4 points. This should be another close affair and you guessed it, I am sitting on the fence but without a great deal of confidence. Prediction 1.1 Bolton v Middlesbrough This looks one of the hardest calls of the day as both were notoriously inconsistent last season so predicting this one with any degree of certainty looks impossible. That being said, having looked at last season's table, these are two sides who quite enjoyed a draw with 33 of their 92 matches ending in stalemate. Prediction 2.2 Reading v Huddersfield Huddersfield have been very poor in losing their two opening fixtures and I can see the trend continuing tonight as Reading look to have too much firepower in the likes of Pogrebnyak and Mackie. I expect a comfortable home win for the Royals. Prediction 2.0 My final bets will follow in today’s final post. Tuesday – European Preview
There’s a full card in the English leagues tonight and I will post a separate preview on this action, as well as 5 crucial Champions League fixtures to consider in a busy night while we also have a super cup clash in Spain as Real and Atletico go head to head at the extraordinarily late hour of 1100pm CET At this early stage of the season it is of course almost impossible to pick matches based on form, what with there being so little of it so therefore it is important to make small, sensible bets in these opening weeks before we get a real feel for the action and this is especially relevant in the increasingly unpredictable and highly competitive English championship where anyone can beat anyone on any given day. My main focus this season will be on the weekend matches in the EPL and the other big leagues across Europe so you won’t see too many big bets on lower league football but with that being said, we all enjoy a little flutter so you will see lots of my “Bookie Busters” on these matches where we look to make big wins from small stakes. For example, my 4 draws which pays usually at 125/1 only needs to win once every 2 years for it to make a profit and at the weekend, our first selection delivered 2 out of 4 and was moments away from a full house had it not been for late penalty drama at hull and west ham. I will also change the daily double to my deadly double (Essentially the same but recognising that I will not be doing one on a “daily” basis. Pedantic yes. Ok, so on to the action in tonight’s Champions League qualifiers and for Arsenal, tonight they face a big task in the shape of Turkish outfit Besiktas who dispatched Feyenoord in the last round thanks to a hat-trick from new man, Demba Ba, recruited from Chelsea and I expect the Turks to present a serious threat to Arsenal’s ambitions of making yet another Champions League. This time last year many were predicting doom for Wenger’s men as they faced another Turkish opponent in Fenerbahce but any fears were soon put to bed as the Gunners cruised to a 3.0 win in Istanbul but I have a feeling tonight’s affair is going to be that much harder for Arsenal who looked less than impressive in edging past Crystal Palace at the Emirates 2.1 while Besiktas were pretty impressive in defeating Feyenoord both home and away although it should be noted that this was a Feyenoord side who had lost their entire defence to summer transfers. I expect only one outcome tonight and BTTS is my sure fire pick for this clash and is priced at a very tasty 5/6. Arsenal themselves are 7/10 to win and this looks far too short in my book. I expect a score draw with Arsenal having to work extremely hard to get a positive result to take home to London. Consider Ramsey to score at anytime at 15/8 while Ba looks overpriced at 13/5 for the Turks. In the other Champions League action. Red Bull Salzburg should blow away Malmo at home and while they are only ¼ to do so, I expect them to win with a goal to spare and backing them on the handicap at 8/13 looks the best shout. Ateltico Bilbao travel to Naples in a very tasty looking tie and I quite fancy the BTTS action again here at a good price of 5/6 again and if you fancy something a wee bit bigger, I can see a home win to go with the BTTS and you can get 3/1 on Napoli winning with both teams scoring. Higuain is 6/5 to get on the score sheet. The other 2 ties see Leverkusen travel to Copenhagen and Steaua Bucharest entertain FC Ludogorets and both of these ties are best avoided although I do fancy away day success for both Leverkusen and the underdogs Ludogorets. Finally in Spain, at 1100pm (Seriously Spain, 1100pm...why?) we have Real and Atletico going head to head at the Bernabeu and I expect some goals to go with a home win. Real are 8/13 to deliver a first leg advantage on the La Liga Champions but I fancy 9/4 on the Real win/BTTS double. If you are looking for an anytime goalscorer, Gareth Bale is 13/10 and Ronaldo, odds on of course but at a pretty good price of 5/6. There should be some decent action tonight and I will post my final bets later this afternoon. So how did I fare in my first week with mr happy Mark Lawrenson. Let's have a look.
EPL PREDICTIONS Man Utd 3 v 1 Swansea (Lawro says – 2.0) - actual result - 1 v 2 Leicester 2 v 2 Everton (Lawro says – 1.1) - actual result - 2 v 2 QPR 1 V 1 Hull (Lawro says – 1.0) - actual result - 0 v 1 Stoke 2 V 0 Aston Villa (Lawro says – 2.0) - actual result - 0 v 1 West Brom 1 v 1 Sunderland (Lawro says – 1.1) - actual result - 2 v 2 West Ham 1 v 1 Tottenham (Lawro says – 1.1) - actual result - 0 v 1 Arsenal 3 v 0 Crystal Palace (Lawro says – 2.0) - actual result - 2 v 1 Liverpool 3 v 1 Southampton(Lawro says – 2.0) - actual result - 2 v 1 Newcastle 2 v 2 Man City (Lawro says – 1.2) - actual result - 0 v 2 Burnley 0 v 2 Chelsea (Lawro says – 0.2) - actual result - 1 v 3 Final Scores - Bo 7 v 6 Lawro So a narrow victory over "football's number one expert" thanks to a fine correct score prediction at Leicester which was a 16/1 shot. Well it was an average start to the season as I missed out on my "sexy single" and " tasty treble" but thankfully the "daily double" landed and in the end I was only 10 euros down for the day. Let's have a quick look at those results.
Bo's Sexy single Stoke to beat Aston Villa - 10/11 -LOST Single pays at 10/11 - 3 points (30 euros) Bo's Daily Double Leicester v Everton - BTTS 8/11 Arsenal to beat Crystal Palace - 1/4 Double pays at 1.15/1 - 3 points (30 euros) WON Bo's Tasty Treble Sheffield Wed v Derby - BTTS - 8/11 Norwich v Watford - BTTS - 8/13 Man Utd to beat Swansea - 4/9 Treble Pays at 3/1 - 1.5 Points (15 euros) LOST Total Staked - 75 euros Total returned 65 euros Starting balance - 1000 euros New balance - 990 euros Onwards and upwards 4 more draws cause i'm feeling lucky
Fulham v Millwall Norwich v Watford Bolton v Forest Rotherham v Wolves 4 draws pays at 125/1 I did 50p :)big confidence... Bo's Bookie Busters (Small stakes)
Bo's Anytime Goalscorer Treble Ramsey (Arsenal) - 7/5 Martin (Derby) - 8/5 Krkic (Stoke) - 7/5 Treble Pays at 15/1 Both teams to score and win Derby to beat Shef Wed and BTTS - 7/2 Everton to win and BTTS - 7/2 Double pays at 20/1 Bo's Draws West Brom v Sunderland - draw West Ham v Tottenham - draw Dundee v Partick Thistle = draw QPR V Hull - draw Pays at 120/1 Bo's Away Day Glory Derby to beat Shef Wed -13/10 Brighton to beat Birmingham 31/20 Blackburn to beat Blackpool 5/6 Everton to beat Leicester 6/4 Acca pays at 26/1 BO VRS LAWRO
Each week I will go head to head with Mark Lawrenson of BBC fame in predicting the results for the weekend’s action in the EPL. Lawro is notoriously safe when it comes to his predictions and in previous years I used to look at his predictions to see if I could actually predict his predictions! Whether that makes me sad or not is pretty clear but the man is as predictable as it comes and has never envisaged a team scoring more than 2 goals. Needless to say, 9 times out 10, my predictions of Lawro’s predictions would be correct. But if he can outscore Bo over the course of the season then it would surely damage my credibility beyond recognition. So, here goes. 3 Points for a correct score, 1 for the result It’s a Lawro load of predictions chuck. EPL PREDICTIONS Man Utd 3 v 1 Swansea (Lawro says – 2.0) Leicester 2 v 2 Everton (Lawro says – 1.1) QPR 1 V 1 Hull (Lawro says – 1.0) Stoke 2 V 0 Aston Villa (Lawro says – 2.0) West Brom 1 v 1 Sunderland (Lawro says – 1.1) West Ham 1 v 1 Tottenham (Lawro says – 1.1) Arsenal 3 v 0 Crystal Palace (Lawro says – 2.0) Liverpool 3 v 1 Southampton(Lawro says – 2.0) Newcastle 2 v 2 Man City (Lawro says – 1.2) Burnley 0 v 2 Chelsea (Lawro says – 0.2) Championship Predictions (Lawro doesn’t do these because he thinks football is rubbish and only does the EPL because he is contractually obliged by the BBC) Leeds 1 v 2 Middlesborough - Birmingham 0 v 1 Brighton Blackpool 1 v 2 Blackburn Bolton 1 v 1 N Forest Bournemouth 2 v 1 Brentford Cardiff 2 v 0 Huddersfield Charlton 0 v 2 Wigan Fulham 2 V 2 Millwall Norwich 1 v 1 Watford Reading 2 v 1 Ipswich Rotherham 1 v 1 Wolves Shef Wed 1 V 3 Derby Bo's Sexy single
Stoke to beat Aston Villa - 10/11 Single pays at 10/11 - 3 points (30 euros) Bo's Daily Double Leicester v Everton - BTTS 8/11 Arsenal to beat Crystal Palace - 1/4 Double pays at 1.15/1 - 3 points (30 euros) Bo's Tasty Treble Sheffield Wed v Derby - BTTS - 8/11 Norwich v Watford - BTTS - 8/13 Man Utd to beat Swansea - 4/9 Treble Pays at 3/1 - 1.5 Points (15 euros) Total Staked = 75 euros It's Saturday and finally the football season is back and although we have had some games for the past 2 weeks, with the return of the EPL, today is truly when we can enjoy our football again.
I’ve put up some tips already and here I will post my "Bo's Best Bets" along with my "Bo's Bookie Busters" The format is a little different this season and I’ve separated them into two categories Best Bets and Bookie Busters. The Best Bets are the main ones (Bo's Sexy Single, Daily Double and Tasty Treble) those will be the ones I am banking on, nd on which I should be judged and these bets will be rated between 1 and 5 points with 1 point indicating a lower confident 10 euro bet, with 5 representing 50 euros and my most confident bets. For these you will see over the course of the season if I am in profit or not. The Bookie Busters are much more speculative and should be done for very low stakes, These include draws, aways and Match result and both teams to score selections All my prices will be taken from bet365. Bet's to follow shortly... West Brom v Sunderland – 3pm
Two clubs who go through managers like underpants and two sides who are generally, well, pants. The Baggies have brought in Alan Irvine, long term assistant to David Moyes as their new boss and at 56 years old in his first premier league gig you might well wonder why they ever decided to get rid of Steve Clarke. Irvine has a lot of fans to win over but they have made some decent signings and should be good enough to beat the drop if there manager doesn’t turn out to be hopeless. Sunderland survived last season with a stunning end to the season under Gus Poyet and with this his first full season in charge they should improve further and if they can get long term target Fabio Borini to join from Liverpool then they will be stronger going forward . They surely can’t start the season any worse than they did under madcap Di Canio a year ago and I expect both sides to survive but both to be ordinary and therefore there can only be one conclusion tomorrow. Score draw. Predictions West Brom v Sunderland – draw 2/1 West Ham v Tottenham – 3pm A London derby is a good way to get the season going and for Sam Allardyce the pressure will be on from the first minute as he has been told to play better football, score more goals and win more games...”ok then chairman, no bother” was of course the natural reply from a man who is staggeringly amongst the top 10 most highly paid managers in the world. No, really. Whether Big/Fat Sam (to me he seems bigger than fatter) can wave his magic wand and suddenly deliver free flowing football is highly doubtful and I expect Sams backside to the exit door sooner rather than later. Unless new boy Ener Valencia proves to be a goal machine, it could be dark days ahead for Allardyce who always delivers a safety first approach to the teams he has managed. Sadly for the deluded Hammers, they expect to be entertained as well as safe and with that in mind, I can smell the exit door awaiting for Allardyce who will surely struggle to entertain the masses with Stuart Downing amongst their top players although wild man Mauro Zarate has arrived from a spell back home in Argentina and could yet be the Alladyce joker in the pack. For Spurs, new boss Mauricio Pochettino has the enviable task of replacing resident buffoon Tim “nice but dim” Sherwood as manager this season and while they have barely added to their squad, Ben Davies apart, they should be a stronger side for their experience in the league last year. Another striker is required surely if Tottenham are to harbour genuine ambitions of the top 4 this season and while Roberto Soldado, Erik Lamela et al should be expected to improve, I don’t expect those improvements to be significant enough and I can see Spurs finishing no higher than 6th. Another score draw could be on the cards tomorrow in what should prove to be a relatively feisty opening day encounter Predictions West Ham v Tottenham – Draw 2/1 Arsenal v Crystal Palace – 5.30pm Arsenal get their season underway against Crystal Palace who have remarkably parted company with Jesus, sorry Tony Pulis, the man who took over a side destined for the drop and lead them to not only to survival but mid-table safety with games to spare and who has now left his job over a dispute about control over transfers. A bonkers decision from a club who will surely now be fighting against relegation as a result of their chairman’s idiocy. Arsenal meanwhile have added 1 world class star in Alexis Sanchez to their group while replacing Bacary Sagna with another French fullback in Mathieu Debuchy which looks a solid enough replacement. Joel Campbell has returned from loan and a fine World Cup to fight for a place and Arsenal are looking healthier than they have for many years with last season’s FA Cup triumph fresh in the memory I expect the Gunners to be strong again this season and while it could be argued that they are still at least 2 world class players short of challenging for the title (for my money, 3 players are needed) they should have more than enough quality to improve on last season’s 79 points and with 2weeks left in the window, Wenger may yet surprise us further with an investment in the holding midfield role surely required. Still with Ozil, Sanchez, Walcott, Giroud, Podolski, Campbell, Cazorla, Chamberlain and Gnabry to call on in the attacking positions, Arsenal will score goals and continue to be entertaining although replacing their captain Thomas Vermaelan remains a priority. 3 points seem assured and again I expect the Gunners to do it with a little to spare. Predictions Arsenal -1 to beat Palace – 8/11 Ramsey to score anytime 6/4 Liverpool v Southampton – Sunday 1.30 pm Liverpool minus Luis Suarez kick off their campaign with multiple new additions including 3 of Southampton’s key first team players from last season in Lovren, Lallana and Lambert and while the Saints have been decimated in their fire sale of players, they have added a host of new players including Brazilian legend Pele! Oh sorry, it’s Graziano Pelle of Eredivisie fame who has been bought to replace Lambert and Dusan Dadic, also coming in from Holland looks like a fine replacement for the departed Lallana. Whether it was really smart to sell the heart of your team all at once is debatable but you cannot deny that the Saints have made some pretty good cash, specifically on Chambers at 16 million, Lallana at 25 (minus 25% to his former team) and Shaw at 27 million, Replacements have come quickly and unfortunately for Southampton, with everyone knowing their pockets are deep, they have had to pay some pretty big prices, see Shane Long, 12 million. Liverpool meanwhile have “done a spurs” and whacked a lot of cash on some proven and less proven players with the money from the sale of Suarez and while they have yet to actually replace that man directly, they should still be strong enough to fight for the top 4 again. I expect 1 more striker to arrive at Anfield and depending on his quality, they could yet spring a surprise by pushing hard for the title again. Tomorrow’s affair should see a home win and BTTS at 4/6 also looks a good shout. Much will depend on whether the Saints can gel quickly and with a new manager as well in Ronald Koeman, it will be a much changed Southampton that faces Liverpool on Sunday. For that reason, I expect a home win. Predictions Liverpool to beat Southampton and BTTS – 7/4 Newcastle v Man City - Sunday 4pm Newcastle have done as well as anyone this summer with new signings coming thick and fast now that the legend of Joe Kinnear has finally been condemned to the footballing scrap heap. Once again the Nouveau Chateaux have turned their attentions to France, snapping up Remy Caballa and Emmanuel Rivierre while also dipping their toes into the dodgy Dutch market for established internationals in Siem De Jong and Daryl Janmaat. The Geordie faithful will expect to see better performances from their team having slipped so badly in the second half of last season when they played like a team certain for relegation. That they still managed to finish in the top10 underlines not only the quality of their start to last season when they were challenging for the top 4 at Christmas but also the comparative dearth of competition in the bottom 10 where every side could have been relegated. I expect a similar season ahead for Newcastle. City of course were Champions and while they have added some quality in the Porto duo Mangala and Fernando along with Wily Caballero coming in to fight with Joe Hart (not literally, well maybe) and Bacary Sagna at full back, they still seem to lack an extra bite in attack and whether they have done enough in the market to hold on to their title remains to be seen. Oh yes, Frank Lampard will be there for 6 months before his move stateside. It won’t be easy on Sunday for Pellegrini’s side and BTTS is my bet for this one at 4/6 and while City should win, I would not be surprised to see an entertaining score draw. Predictions Newcastle v Man City – BTTS 4/6 Burnley v Chelsea – Monday 9pm Turf Moor plays host to the first Monday night football of the campaign as big spending Chelsea take on newly promoted Burnley in what looks like a tasty finale to the first weekend’s action. Chelsea have invested splendidly and it seems Jose Mourinho has taken a course at the Daniel Levy school of negotiations in managing to sell David Luiz for 50 million pounds. Yes, 50 million pounds. Of course, he did this before the World Cup semi-final and yet can’t help imagine Mourinho must have watched that performance with a wry smile on his face. Indeed Mourinho has let go of Luiz, Lukaku and Ba and with the money generated from the sale of those 3 replaced them with Diego Costa, Cesc Fabregas, Fillipe Luis and Didier Drogba. Tremendous business and indeed Chelsea are my tips to win the league this season. Diego Costa scored 36 goals in Spain for Atletico in his final campaign, and if he can finally break the Chelsea striker curse, (see Torres, Shevchenko, Crespo, Mutu and Kezman) and added to that, Cesc pulling the string in midifled, then the Blues will be very hard to beat. Burnley meanwhile are the bookies favourites for the drop and with little investment in the team, this would be hard to argue against but they have a tremendous home record and will certainly not be a pushover in this division but it’s hard to make a case for them to stay up, other than the fact that there are sure to be some other pretty ordinary teams in the league. Chelsea should take the points on Monday and get their season off and running in the style Mourinho demands. Cue 1.0 victory. Predictions – Chelsea to win – 2/5 (far too short a price though) So that’s my first weekend preview for the EPL. I will post my final predictions and bets in tomorrow’s pre match posts around lunchtime. It’s back!
Yes the new season gets into gear tomorrow as the Premier League kicks off at 12.15 with Louis Van Gaal’s first match in charge against Swansea getting things underway on BT Sport and with a full card across the UK and most of Europe, tomorrow marks the first day of the season and for Bobreaksthebookies our first full season with the blog up and running. As mentioned in my previous post, we will be starting with a 1000 euro bankroll and bets will be recommended in a points based system. For more info, please check my last post. It was a tremendous World Cup with for BBTB ending up in decent profit having backed the Germans at 15/2 and I also landed a fine top goalscorer team treble at 38/1 odds but now the real action returns and with a new season comes new risks and rewards. Form is obsolete in the first weeks so all of our picks have to be based on other factors such as injuries, historical match ups and general gut instinct. Historically I have performed very well in the opening weekend of the EPL (perhaps with some luck involved) and this weekend gives us a chance to get things going in the right direction with some entertaining ties ahead. I will be doing low stakes for these opening weeks as I wait for the form to develop and this is important to note at this early stage of the season when everything is that little bit more unpredictable and risks are not worth taking. While the UK football is now back in full swing, the Bundesliga and La Liga are still a week behind so this weekend’s focus will be purely on our UK card although the Dutch league is back and always provides plenty of goals and I may sneak a peek at what is on offer but for the EPL I will always post a preview of every game with my top tips included. Please bear in mind that while I will do a preview for the EPL action, with my tips and suggestions, I will also post a separate piece which will detail my bets and staking plans. Don’t worry, all will become clear! EPL PREVIEW Part 1 Manchester United v Swansea – 12.15pm 3 points should be the reward for Louis Van Gaal in his first match of the season as a new look United (new shape at least) get things going against Gary Monk’s Swansea who have a lot to prove this year after a poor end to last season saw them dragged into a relegation dog fight as the beautiful Michael Laudrup paid for his rather horizontal approach to the job and found himself kicked out for failing to motivate a side that seemed to be on a downward spiral. Does the inexperienced Monk have the tools to turn the club around? Time will tell but Saturday looks sure to bring about defeat as a confident United side should have enough to secure 3 points and bring about the beginning of a new era at Old Trafford Although United will be without new signing Luke Shaw at left wing back, and while the thought of Ashley Young at wingback is a perplexing one, Louis seems to know what he is doing and I fully expect a comfortable home victory based purely on the fact that David Moyes will not be sitting in the dugout. Sorry Dave. Predictions Man Utd -1 to beat Swansea – 20/21 Leicester v Everton – 3pm New boys Leicester get things under way against Everton in what should be an entertaining event at the King Power stadium with Bobby Martinez’s Everton looking to continue their fine form of last season against a side that romped the Championship with over 100 points last year. Everton have added on loan star Romelu Lukaku on a permanent transfer from Chelsea for a staggering £28 million pounds (seriously, Everton spending 28 million!, the world has gone nuts) while also making a permanent move for Gareth Barry while Bosnian Muhamed Besic should add further steal to their midfield. Under Martinez, Everton were very strong last season and if they can add a little further quality to their attacking options then an assault on the top 4 is not beyond the realms of possibility but with Europa League football to come, further investment is required. Leicester have retained the majority of the same squad that so handsomely reached the EPL and with only a few additions, manager Nigel Pearson appears to be placing his belief in the existing team. A refreshing approach and perhaps sensible too. I expect Leicester to be decent and they have a good chance of avoiding the drop. As for Saturday? BTTS is my play as I think Everton will do enough to get at least a point but I am not certain they will get the win against last season’s Championship winners. Predictions Leicester v Everton - BTTS – 4/6 QPR V HULL Another new boy as QPR return to the EPL after a hard fought and at times lacklustre campaign in the championship which saw them gain promotion with a fortuitous victory over Derby in the playoff final at Wembley in May. Glenn Hoddle has been added to the coaching staff while new signings Rio Ferdinand and Steven Caulker should give them some much needed protection at the back and if they maintain the services of Loic Remy then relegation would seem unlikely although that is a big if. Hull meanwhile have added Robert Snodgrass from Norwich while Jake Livermore has made his loan deal a permanent one and with 12 million coming in from the sale of Shane Long, Hull should be able to invest further to strengthen a squad that could be hampered by a Europa League campaign. I expect a close affair on Saturday and a share of the spoils seems likely Predictions Qpr v Hull – draw 23/10 Stoke v Aston Villa – 3pm Stoke under Mark Hughes certainly improved their style last season and with new signing Bojan Krkic added to their attacking options, it could be another decent season for Sparky. Krkic has looked sharp in pre season (sharp enough for me to put him in my fantasy team) and I expect the home side to be particularly strong at their own ground this season where they only lost 3 times last season. Villa meanwhile have added Roy Keane to their coaching staff which seems an interesting if somewhat slightly strange appointment while the additions of Joe Cole, Kieran Richardson and Philippe Senderos hardly inspire confidence in a team bereft of real quality in key areas. It could be a big struggle for Villa this season and I expect them to come unstuck against a decent Stoke side that should be good enough to win quite comfortably tomorrow. Predictions Stoke to beat Aston Villa 10/11 Bojan Krkic to score anytime 2/1 |
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