Scotland produced their worst display of the campaign so far on Saturday but it was still good enough to secure a point in Ireland that could yet prove crucial in their bid to qualify for a first major finals in 18 years. After a hugely disappointing opening 45 minutes, the Scots responded with a much better display in the 2nd half to claim a just about deserved share of the spoils that leaves them 2 points ahead of the Irish and just in touch with both Germany and Poland as the table above demonstrates. With 4 games to go in the section, Scotland stand every chance of either qualifying in the top 2 positions, qualifying as the best 3rd placed side (1 of the 9 groups will have a 3rd qualifier) or in the worst case scenario, entering the play-offs in November but I remain fully confident in my 11/4 pick of Scotland to qualify that I suggested just under a year ago and the bookies agree with Scotland now odds on @4/5 to qualify. That's right. SCOTLAND are odds on to qualify!
Next up for the Scots is a vital double header in September with Georgia away followed by the home clash with Germany 3 days later and with 11 points on the board so far, Scotland know that a further 9 points should be enough to seal 2nd in the group so a victory in Georgia is essential if we want to qualify automatically and if we do get the points in Tblisi, what a game it will be at Hampden when the World champions come to town. Scotland to top the ground? it isn't so fanciful you know. The Germans are assumed winners of the group but they have arguably the hardest of the remaining fixtures having already played Gibraltar twice and with trips to Glasgow and Dublin to come, as well as a tough home fixture with Poland, and a less demanding home tie with Georgia, there are absolutely no guarantees that the World Champions will end up as group winners and I don't expect them to win all of their remaining games. Ireland meanwhile look to have blown it and I can't see them picking up more than 8 points from their remaining fixtures (Germany and Georgia at home, Poland and Gibraltar away) and even if they do get 8, Scotland will only need the away wins in Georgia and Gibraltar to guarantee at least a play-off. I have used a little predictor tool to determine the final outcomes of all the groups (sad I know) and if Scotland are to get a further 9 points then we should do enough to qualify automatically ahead of Poland and Ireland. If you want to try it yourself, here it is; http://ultra.zone/UEFA-EURO-2016-qualifying#group=d There is still so much football to be played in group D and it would be foolish to rule out any of the top 4 sides still qualifying automatically but with 4 points taken from Ireland, Scotland know that a win in Georgia and Gibraltar should be good enough to secure at least 3rd spot in the group and with home fixtures against Poland and Germany to come, there is still every chance that Scotland could yet finish 2nd in the section or dare i say it, win the whole bloody group! Now wouldn't that be a story... Having taken a vital point in Poland, Scotland know that a win over Poland will give them the head to head record advantage which will be the determining factor should any 2 sides finish level on points and having used the predictor tool, I have Scotland qualifying ahead of the Poles on the head to head record with both sides picking up 20 points. Poland with 14 points and 3 ahead of the Scots have home games with Gibraltar and Ireland to come as well as trips to Germany and Scotland. I expect 6 points from the home games and 0 from the trip to Germany. Therefore, the showdown in Glasgow between the two sides should prove decisive. Of course this is all hypothetical but it is there in black and white for Scotland. Win as expected in our 2 away games to Georgia and Gibraltar and the play-offs should be the minimum we can expect. Add a win at home to either Germany or Poland and you WILL be seeing plenty of thirsty kilts in the streets of Paris again next year. Wouldn't it be fitting for Scotland to end their 18 year long wait to return to a major finals at the very same destination we last competed on at this stage. France '98 feels like a life-time ago but France 2016 is very much a reality for this vastly improving team who should be confident of securing at least a play-off spot following their success over Ireland. There is of course 1 further qualifying position that is awarded to the team who finish 3rd in their section but collect the most points compared to all the other 3rd places teams from around the groups and having predicted all of the remaining results, there is every chance that Scotland could yet find themselves in that unlikely scenario although that is a road we would prefer not to walk down. Plenty of work remains for the Scots but I am more confident than ever before that this year will finally be the time when we can swap the agony for ecstasy and rejoin the big party scheduled for France next summer. Come on Scotland! ****1 million Tickets are already on sale for the 2016 Euros in France through UEFA.COM and applications can be submitted up until mid July. Of course there is know way of knowing where and if Scotland will be there, but with tickets starting at just 25 euros a pop, it's worth taking a chance on some of the different venues and seeing what you might end up with. Comments are closed.
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