The Champions League group stages conclude tonight and I've focussed in on 3 of the more interesting fixtures on offer with 1 or 2 dead rubbers worth avoiding as we look to bounce back from a poor weekend @bobreaksbookies. I only did 2 bets on Sunday and both were beaten by Monenchegladbach's failure to score in their 3.0 defeat at Wolfsburg (they did have a goal chopped off at 2.0) as my other two selections of BTTS and over 2.5 goals came through in the 2nd match as Lazio won 2.1 at Sampdoria. So we get back on the saddle tonight and we have 3 British sides in action as Liverpool look to make history at Anfield against Spartak Moscow knowing a win will seal their qualification, thus ensuring 5 English sides will enter Friday's last 16 draw, a record for one nation at this stage of the competition while Man City travel to Ukraine to take on Shakhtar in what is a vital fixture for the hosts and I've covered that one in detail below while Spurs finish off their campaign against APOEL with top spot already sealed in what has been a fabulous campaign for Mauro Pocchetino's side, at least in Europe. I won't be touching that fixture though with Spurs already through and not in the best of form. Elsewhere, Porto should seal qualification at home to Monaco but they are awfully short at just 1/3 while RBL need to beat group winners Besiktas and hope that the aforementioned Portuguese side drop points in that match-up against a Monaco side that have already been eliminated from Europe entirely. With both away sides not having much to play for, these fixtures are best avoided although I wouldn't be surprised to see BTTS in Germany @19/20 with Besiktas in tremendous form both domestically and in the CL.
Napoli and Sevilla should both seal their passage to the last 16 with away wins at Feyenoord and Maribor respectively with that Sevilla match included in my 3 extended previews below. I won't be doing any selections for the dead rubber at the Bernabeu as Real welcome Dortmund in what could have been a tremendous fixture had their been something riding on it. In any event, goals should probably still be expected with 7 of their last 9 meetings over the last 5 years going over 2.5 goals and 6 of those also seeing BTTS. Here then are your 3 extended previews with suggested bets included while I will post my final Best Bets later on this afternoon. Champions League 19:45 Shakhtar Donetsk vs Manchester City - Prediction 2.1 Best Bets - Shakhtar not to lose @11/20, DNB @1/1 Key Facts * Shakhtar have won 4 of their last 5 home CL fixtures including both of their home games in this campaign * Shakhtar scored 2 goals or more in 7 of their last 8 home CL fixtures * None of Manchester City's 41 Champions League group games has ended goalless. * Shakhtar require 1 point or more to seal their qualification * Man City have already qualified as group winners * Since their CL debut in 2000, Shakhar have won 5 and drawn 1 of their 6 previous home CL fixtures against BRITISH opposition. * Shakhtar beat Celtic (twice), Arsenal (twice), Chelsea while they drew 1.1 with Man Utd Final Verdict Shakhtar only requires a draw or more this evening in order to progress to the round of 16 and with Man City set to make a host of changes, the home side will fancy their chances of getting at least a point with the Ukranian champions boasting a strong home record in the competition. And yet, the hosts are pretty big @2/1 odds which is certainly tempting @bobreaksbookies, but the safer bet has to be Shakhtar DNB @1/1 with the hosts not needing the win. With Man City having already sealed qualification and top spot in the group though, and with the derby against Man Utd to come on Sunday, Guardiola will surely make wholesale changes to his side and you would expect that the home side will surely cede the initiate in temperatures that will drop below freezing come kick-off. Certainly, Shakhtar wouldn't want to be going into the last 10 minutes of this match level and just 1 goal from elimination, so far that reason I expect the home side to look for the 3 points and with City likely to field an unfamiliar line-up, I fancy them to get them with Facundo Fereyra, Bernard and Marlos in great goal scoring form for the Ukranian champions. While Shakhtar don't need to win, I don't expect this one to play out as a drab draw, even if that would ultimately suit the home side. City has never been involved in a 0.0 draw in 41 previous CL fixtures and Shakhtar surely will look to win the game with home advantage and an expectant crowd behind them. 19:45 Liverpool vs Spartak Moscow - Prediction 4.1 Best Bets - Liverpool over 2.5 goals @8/1, Liverpool to win and BTTS @7/5 Key Facts * Liverpool have scored 3 goals or more in 7 of their last 8 fixtures (all competitions) * Liverpool scored 25 goals in those 8 fixtures * Liverpool won 3.0 in each of their last 3 home wins * Spartak Moscow have to win to have any chance of qualification * Spartak have lost 4 of their last 5 away CL fixtures * Spartak have seen BTTS in all 5 previous fixtures in the group so far Final Verdict I fancy an on-form Liverpool to take Spartak apart at Anfield this evening with Jurgen Klopp's men scoring so many goals lately and they will surely fancy their chances against a Spartak side that need to win to have any chance of reaching the last 16. Liverpool have scored3 or more in 7 of their last 8 and in 8 of their last 10. They have scored 33 goals in those 10 games and come into this fixture with Firmino and Salah both in red-hot form with the latter bagging 3 doubles in his last 5 appearances and the former scoring 2 doubles in his last 3. Spartak aren't the best of travellers, and have conceded 3 goals or more in 4 away fixtures in their own domestic league in 2017 and I don't expect them to keep Liverpool at bay with the visitors needing to adopt a more offensive mentality than they usually would on their European travels. Indeed the Russians conceded 4 in their last visit to England (4.1 @Chelsea in 2010) and 5 when they last faced Liverpool back in 2002. I expect a similar outcome here with Liverpool needing the win to ensure top spot in the group. Goals are expected, and the visitors can score with Liverpool still struggling defensively, although they have kept clean-sheets in each of their last 3 home wins. Still, Spartak were able to score in Sevilla but did struggle to 2 draws with a Maribor side that Liverpool put 7 past. I fancy a strong home performance so Liverpool to score 3 @8/11 is my selection here while I also fancy a BTTS and home win pick @ 6/4, 19:45 Maribor vs Sevilla - Prediction 0.3 Best Bets -Sevilla -1 to win @8/13, Sevilla to score 3 or more @1/1 Key Facts * Maribor conceded 7 goals to Liverpool in their most recent home CL fixture * Sevilla need to win to guarantee their passage to the last 16 while a win coupled with a Spartak draw or better at Liverpool would win them the group * Sevilla have won 7 of their last 9 fixtures (all competitions), scoring 14 goals in their 5 most recent matches * Sevilla scored 3 goals in 3 of their last 4 fixtures (all competitions) * Sevilla won 3.0 in the reverse fixture back in September Final Verdict With Sevilla requiring the 3 points to seal their qualification, I expect them to run out comfortable winners here against an over-matched Maribor side that were smashed 7.0 by a rampant Liverpool in their most recent outing at home in the Champions League. The Spanish side are in good form domestically and they will be confident of sealing a solid win over a side that have struggled in their 3 fixtures in the group against Liverpool and Sevilla, conceding 13 goals and failing to score. I expect that pattern to continue here with Sevilla needing those points to ensure their qualification while also keeping alive their chances of winning the group. Maribor, on the other hand, are merely playing for pride and they will probably be happy just to avoid another heavy defeat in what has been a tough campaign for the Slovenian champions. Sevilla -1 to win at 8/13 looks good to me while I do also fancy them to score 3 or more at the bigger odds of 1/1 even. Best Bets Bo's Tasty Treble 1 Points Staked Shakhtar vs Man City - DNB @1/1 Liverpool vs Spartak Moscow - Liverpool to score 3 or more @8/11 Maribor vs Sevilla - Sevilla - 1 to win @8/13 Bo's Tasty Treble #2 0.5 Points Staked Liverpool to win and BTTS @6/4 Sevilla to score 3 or more @1/1 Shakhtar to score 2 or more @6/4 Comments are closed.
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