We have another crazy busy evening ahead of us with 8 fixtures in Serie A as 5 Bundesliga fixtures, La Liga action and some further League Cup fixtures from the UK. I've picked out 5 of the games in Italy for a closer anlaysis and this is what I have concluded. I will post subsequent previews for the UK and German football while will of course be followed by my "best bets" It should be noted that on any given day, I may have many suggested bets but only the strongest 4 selections will form my "Deadly Doubles" so please don't be worried by my highlighting of potential or "suggested bets" - these are in essence a short-list of my favourite selections with the best ones reserved for my principal bets and the others thrown into my small stakes trebles and 4 -fold's which have, as you know, been very succesful for me in the past. No-one need feel compelled to do all of my bets but my "Deadly Doubles" are my bread and butter and it's vital we get back on track with those. I've ignored Juventus at home to Frosinone as well as out of from Lazio's fixture with Genoa while Inter are too short to back at home to Verona so here are the 5 fixtures in Italy worth considering. 19.45 Fiorentina v Bologna - Prediction - 2.0 - Suggested Bets - Fiorentina to win to nil @13/10, Fiorentina to win @1/2
Key Facts * Fiorentina have won 5 successive home league fixtures and 7 from 9 going back to the end of last season * Fiorentina have won 3 of their opening 4 league fixtures, keeping clean sheets in all 3 and have now won 8 out of 9 since April with clean sheets in 5 of those wins * They have now kept a clean sheet in their last 4 home matches in Serie A. * Bologna have failed to win any of their last 10 on the road, losing 7 of those 10. * The visitors have just 1 away win in 11 months * Bologna have failed to score in 7 of their last 10 away league fixtures * Fiorentina won both of last seasons fixtures by 3 goals to 0 and all of the last 3 meetings in Florence * Bologna won only their 2nd game in 19 with a weekend win over new boys Frosinone. Final Verdict - A comfortable home win likely in Florence I can't see past Fiorentina here who have a strong record on their own patch against a team that are usually poor on the road. Given the visitors lack of fire-power and Fiorentina's strong record of clean sheets, I fancy the home side to win @1/2 and to win to nil at the more ambitious price of 13/10 19:45 Palermo vs Sassuolo - Prediction 2.2- Suggested Bets - BTTS @5/6, Palermo to score 2 or more @ 6/5, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @11/8 Key Facts * Palermo have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 home fixtures * 9 of their last 12 at home have also produced BTTS (75%( and in 8 of those also went over 2.5 goals * Palermo have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 home fixtures in Serie A and in 10 out of 15 going back 10 months. * Sassuolo have conceded 2 or more goals in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures in Serie A and in 10 out of 15 going back 10 months. * Palermo have taken 7 points from 4 fixtures so far this season (2 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) * Sassuolo have taken 8 points from 4 fixtures and remain unbeaten so far * Indeed Sassuolo are unbeaten in 9 Serie A fixtures going back to the end of April * Sassuolo have seen 5 of their last 7 on the road finish with BTTS and 11 from 15 going back 9 months - that's a 73% hit rate * Sassuolo have scored in 14 of their last 16 away league fixtures while Palermo have scored in 16 of their last 18 home Serie A fixtures * Palermo have won just 2 of their last 9 home league fixtures, losing 4 * Sassuolo are unbeaten in 4 away league fixtures, winning 3 and drawing at Roma * Palermo won last season's corresponding fixture by 2 goals to 1, the first time these two sides had ever faced off in Serie A Final Verdict - BTTS likely in an entertaining contest I very much like the chance of BTTS @5/6 while Sassuolo could easily get a result considering their fine away form and the relatively poor home form of the islanders Palermo. Both sides have started the season well and both performed to a high standard in away fixtures at the weekend with Sassuolo earning a fine 2.2 draw in Rome and Palermo losing narrowly by 3 to 2 in Milan so confidence should be high in both camps. I'm confidently backing both to score @5/6 while Palermo can score 2 or more @6/5 based on current form and the BTTS and over 2.5 goals price of 11/8 looks over-priced to me with roughly 66% of both of these teams respective home and fixtures in recent months seeing BTTS and over 2.5 goals. 19:45 Chievo vs Torino - Prediction - 1.1 - Suggested Bets - BTTS @5/6, Draw @11/5 Key Facts * Chievo have lost only 1 in 10 league fixtures at home, that in their most recent fixture, a 1.0 loss to Inter * Chievo have scored in 9 of their last 12 home fixtures * Chievo have only lost 4 of their previous 18 league fixtures *Chievo have drawn 5 of their last 9 home league fixtures, Torino have drawn 3 of their last 6 on the road. * Torino have seen over 2.5 goals scored in their last 5 fixtures on the road in Serie A * Torino are unbeaten in 4 Serie A fixtures with 3 wins and 1 draw * Torino have won 6 of their last 13 away league fixtures but only 1 of the last 6 * Torino have seen BTTS in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures and in 9 of 11 going back to Ferbruary - That's an 82% hit rate * Torino have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 9 away league fixtures * Chievo are less prolific in the BTTS market but 4 of their last 6 at home have seen BTTS and in 9 out of 14 fixtures overall - That's an average of around 65% * Torino are unbeaten in their last 8 matches against Chievo in all competitions. * Last season's corresponding fixture finished in a 0.0 draw while 0 of the last 3 fixtures have seen BTTS Final Verdict - Tight looking contest that has draw written all over it Both sides have had excellent starts to the new campaign and you would expect both will believe they are capable of winning this fixture so we should see an open game with Torino's away fixtures usually producing goals. Chievo are a tough nut to crack and they could take a point from a tight looking fixture. I don't expect lots of goals but BTTS wouldn't surprise as I feel this could end up even with Chievo good at home and Torino usually leaky on their travels. BTTS is reasonable @5/6 while the draw @5/2 has a good chance based on recent history and both sides penchant for a draw. 19:45 Carpi vs Napoli - Prediction - Suggested Bets 1.2 - Napoli to score 2 or more @4/6, BTTS @5/6 Key Facts * Napoli have scored 2 or more goals in 4 of their last 6 on the road * Napoli have scored 10 goals in their last 2 fixtures and 14 in 4 * Napoli have scored at least 2 goals in 11 of their last 13 matches in the league * Napoli have only kept 2 clean sheets in their last 15 Serie A away fixtures * Carpi have conceded 2 or more in 3 out of 4 Serie A fixtures * Napoli have seen BTTS in each of their last 5 away league fixtures and in 10 of their last 12 overall - That's an 83% hit rate * Napoli have only won 1 in 10 on the road in Serie A * Carpi have taken just 1 point from 4 Serie A Fixture while Napoli have 5 points from 4 games played so far * However Napoli have won their last 2 fixtures in all competitions, both by 5 goals to 0 against Basel and then Lazio Final Verdict - Carpi unlikely to get anything here against free scoring Napoli I expect an away win for the men from Naples and they are capable of scoring 2 or more @8/13 odds given their form in the market and they will have been buoyed by two superb performances in their last 2 fixtures with 5 goals scored in both. Carpi have performed bravely so far, losing narrowly by 1.0 at home to Fiorentina in their last outing and I expect them to put up another good fight here and considering Napoli's rather poor record of clean sheet on the road, i fancy the underdogs can pinch one in what should ultimately be a comfortable away win for Napoli 19:45 Sampdoria vs Roma - Prediction -1.1 - Suggested Bets - Sampdoria not to lose @1/1, BTTS @4/5 Key Facts * Sampdoria have lost only 2 of their last 21 home league fixtures * Sampdoria have scored in 17 of their last 21 home league fixtures * Sampdoria have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 home matches in Serie A * Roma have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 matches in Serie A. * Roma have won 3 of their last 5 away league fixtures, losing only 2 in 16 * Roma have scored in 18 of their last 21 away fixtures * Roma have kept clean sheets in 4 of their 13 away fixtures only * Sampdoria have drawn 8 of their last 15 home league fixtures, Roma have drawn 6 of their last 15 on the road * Roma have seen BTTS in 5 of their last 7 away league fixtures * Sampdoria have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 6 home fixtures * 0 of the last 5 meetings have seen BTTS but the next previous 5 all did produce BTTS * 5 of the last 9 meetings in Genoa have seen BTTS Final Verdict - Sampdoria can get a result against a potentially fatigued Roma We should see another closely fought contest here where BTTS has a chance but isn't a hugely confident selection. Once again I expect a really tough game with Sampdoria so hard to beat at home against a Roma side that don't lose many on the road. Roma have had a hard week, both physically and mentally following a home defeat to Barcelona and then a disappointing draw at home to Sassuolo. This represents another stiff test of their physical and mental fortitude and I expect them to be happy to leave this northern Italian port with a point. It has to be another 1.1 draw based on the stats and recent form, and considering Sampdoria's home form, i'm confident in backing them not to lose @1/1 odds. Roma have a lot of quality in their squad but winning in Genoa is a big ask for a team that don't win more than 40% of away games in this league. Samp can earn a result @1/1 not to lose here and that's my pick while BTTS certainly has a good chance @4/5 despite recent history. Suggested Bets (in order of confidence) Fiorentina v Bologna - Fiorentina to win @1/2 - NAP Carpi vs Napoli - Napoli to score 2 or more @4/6 - NB Palermo vs Sassuolo - BTTS @5/6 Sampdoria vs Roma - Sampdoria not to lose @1/1 Palermo v Sassuolo - Palermo to score 2 or more @ 6/5 Chievo vs Torino - BTTS @5/6 Sampdoria vs Roma - BTTS @5/6 Fiorentina v Bologna- Fiorentina to win to nil @13/10 Carpi vs Napoli - BTTS @5/6 Palermo v Sassuolo - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @11/8 Dour Draws Chievo v Torino - @11/5 Comments are closed.
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