The Champions League returns tonight and we have two big games for the London sides with Chelsea travelling to Portugal to face Porto while Arsenal desperately need to collect 3 points at home to Greek champions Olympiakos. I’ve previewed both fixtures as well as Barcelona's home fixture with Leverkusen as well as Roma’s trip to Armenia to face BATE and there are 2 fixtures in the Championship that look likely to produce goals as well and they are previewed in my previous pos. Here are today’s key facts and suggested bets for the Champions League. Barcelona vs Leverkusen – Prediction – 2.1 – Suggested Bets – BTTS @5/6, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @6/5 Key Facts * Barcelona have seen BTTS in 4 out of 5 fixtures so far this season * Barcelona have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6 CL Group Stage fixtures * Barcelona have scored at least 2 goals in their last 5 meetings with Leverkusen * Barcelona have seen over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 meetings with Leverkusen * Leverkusen have won their last 2 fixtures in the Bundesliga having lost their previous 3 * Lionel Messi is out for 2 months with a knee injury and will likely be replaced by teenager Munir * Barcelona have kept only 2 clean sheets in 10 fixtures so far this season and only 1 in 5 at the Nou Camp Final Verdict – Home win likely with goals on the cards Lionel Messi’s absence will no doubt be a major blow for the Spanish champions over the course of the next 2 mionths but they should have enough in reserve to get past Leverkusen tonight but the visitors are unlikely make things for Barcelona having picked up their form in recent fixtures. The Germans have struggled in this competition historically and I don’t expect them to get a result here but they can score against a Barca side that are conceding in most fixtures and still look pretty vulnerable at the back. Leverkusen do have quality in the final third and I fancy them to score in a narrow home win for Barcelona 19:45 BATE Borisov vs Roma = Prediction – 1.2 – Suggested Bets BTTS @1/1, Roma to win @4/5 Key Facts * Roma have not kept a clean sheet in 17 away Champions League fixtures going back 8 years with only 2 in 25 since 2003 * 4 of Roma’s last 6 away CL fixtures have seen BTTS * Roma have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 9 away fixtures and in 11 of their last 12 fixtures in all competitions. * Roma have won only 1 of their last 7 Champions League away fixtures * BATE have lost 4 of their last 6 home Champions League Group stage fixtures * BATE lost heavily in 2 of their 3 home fixtures last season, 7.0 to Shakthar and 3.0 to Porto but they did beat Bilbao 2.1. * BATE have lost only 1 of their last 19 home fixtures * BATE have scored in 14 of their last 15 home fixtures Final Verdict – Goals possible in likely away win for Roma Roma will expect to collect 3 points when they travel to Armenia to take on BATE and they should have enough in their locker to collect the 3 points but given their history in this competition, it is unlikely to be easy.. Without a clean sheet in 17 away CL fixtures and with only win in 7 away, Roma are not the best of travellers in the UEFA CL and their league form suggests BTTS @1/1 has a chance at big odds. BATE have suffered some heavy losses in recent seasons in this competition but they did well to qualify for the group stage, coming through 3 qualifying rounds and they have enough about them to make this a hard night for a Roma side with just 1 clean sheet in their 12 most recent fixtures. The hosts have won each of their opening home fixtures in the last 2 seasons competitons and while they are unlikely to repeat that here, I fancy they can nick one against a Rome defence that has it’s faillibilities. I expect the visitors to have enough to get the win but BATE may just make it difficult and I’ll take a chance on BTTS @1/1 with Roma to win @4/5 also pretty likely. 19:45 Arsenal vs Olympiakos – Prediction - 3.1 – Suggested Bets – Arsenal -1 @20/21 Key Facts * Olympiakos have lost their last 5 away CL fixtures conceding 2 or more in all 5 * Olmypiakos have lost 3 of those 5 fixtures by more than 1 goal * The Greek side are poor on the road historically, losing 12 out of 17 away CL fixtures since 2009 * Olympiakos have lost their last 6 away European fixtures, 4 of those by more than 1 goal * Olympakios have scored 35 goals in their last 15 away fixtures domestically * Arsenal have won 6 of their last 10 home CL fixtures * Arsenal have had a great week, winning 2.1 at Spurs and 5.2 at Leicester * Arsenal surprisingly lost at Dinamo Zagreb in match day 1 * Arsenal have scored 2 or more in 10 of their last 17 home CL fixtures and in 2 of the last 3 * Arsenal have won by more than 1 goal in 8 of their last 9 home CL victories and in 17 out of 22 going back 5 years Final Verdict – Expect a comfortable home win for the Gunners I can’t see beyond a home win here with Olympikaos pretty poor on the road in the UEFA CL, losing 12 of their last 17 and a trip to Arsenal represents a significant challenge against a Gunners team that decided to start playing well after I stopped backing them. Historically Arsenal usually win these kind of fixtures fairly comfortably and I’m taking them on the handicap @20/21 in what should be a comfortable but important 3 points for the Gunners. 19:45 FC Porto vs Chelsea – Prediction – 2.0 – Suggested Bets – Porto to win @8/5, Porto to score 2 or more @13/8 * Porto have won 5 of their last 7 home CL fixtures * Porto beat Bayern 3.1 in their last home fixture in last season’s CL Quarter finals, before losing 6.1 in Munich. * Porto have won 13 successive league fixtures at home, keeping clean sheets in EVERY fixture * Porto have won every home fixture in 2015 – 17 successive victories in all comps with clean sheets in 14 of those wins * Porto have scored 2 or more in 5 of their last 6 home CL fixtures, scoring 18 in the process * Porto have lost only 2 of their last 17 home CL fixtures * Chelsea have lost 3 of their last 5 PL away fixtures * Chelsea have conceded 2 or more goals in each of their last 5 away PL fixtures * Chelsea have won only 2 in 7 away CL fixtures since February 2014 * Chelsea have not kept a clean sheet in 7 away fixtures in all comps and in only 1 of their last 10 fixtures Final Verdict – Mourinho set for unhappy return to Portugal Jose Mourinho returns to his former club Porto as his struggling Chelsea side look to regain their form in what is sure to be a tough night in Portugal against the Portuguse champions. Porto have a tremendous home record as evidenced in the stats above and while their domestic league isn’t the strongest, they did overcome rivals Benfica at the weekend with a 1.0 win in Oporto and they will be feeling especially confident considering their performance in last year’s competition with the Portuguese eventually bowing out at the quarter-final stage having won 5 out of 7 home fixtures. With home wins in all 17 of their league fixtures this YEAR, Porto certainly know hot to get results at their beautiful Estadio Dragao and I fancy they can pile up the misery for a Chelsea team that have serious defensive issues, especially in away fixtures with 10 leaked in their last 4 on the road in the PL. The Portuguese side have lost Jackson Martinez but Vincent Aboubakar has scored 4 in 6 appearances so far this season including 2 in their 2.2 draw in Kiev 2 weeks ago and he will lead the line against a Chelsea defence that could see captain John Terry return at the expense of Kurt Zouma who struggled in their weekend draw at Newcastle. I’m backing Porto to score 2 or more and I feel they are more than capable of winning here @8/5 and given their defensive home record, I’m not gonna take the BTTS here @4/5 with Porto to score 2 or more my best bet here. Suggested Bets Arsenal vs Olympiakos – Arsenal -1 to win @20/21 Barcelona vs Leverkusen – BTTS @5/6, Barcelona vs Leverkusen – BTTS and over 2.5 goals @6/5 BATE Borisov vs Roma = BTTS @1/1 FC Porto vs Chelsea – Porto to score 2 or more @13/8 BATE vs Roma – Roma to win @4/5 FC Porto vs Chelsea – Porto to win @8/5 by Ryan Allan follow me on twitter @bobreaksbookies Comments are closed.
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