The Champions League returns tonight with the group stage drawing to a conclusion and there are still some qualifications yet to be resolved as we head into the final round of group matches. I've picked out three games for my best selections tonight while I have included some other tips at the bottom of this page. Here's what I've got from games in Lisbon, Barcelona and Manchester. Benfica vs Napoli
Prediction 1.1 Best Bets - BTTS @7/10 Key Facts * Benfica have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 6 home CL fixtures * Napoli won the reverse fixture 4.2 in Naples * Benfica have scored at least 1 goal in their last 27 home fixtures * Benfica have scored 1 or more in 13 of their last 15 home CL games since 2013 * Benfica have won each of their last 6 home fixtures, scoring 20 in the process * Napoli have seen BTTS in each of their last 5 away CL fixtures since 2013 * Napoli have seen BTTS in 6 of their 7 most recent CL fixtures * Napoli have seen BTTS in each of their last 4 away fixtures * Napoli have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 13 away fixtures * Both sides still need a result to ensure their passage to the round of 16 * A draw will be good enough for both sides should Besiktas fail to win in Kiev * Should Besiktas win in Kiev, Benfica will need to win to qualify. Napoli know a point will secure their qualification. Final Verdict This is likely to be a close affair but with both sides needing a positive result, I expect a good game with BTTS my best selection here as I can't see this finishing 0.0, nor can I see past the visitors scoring in a game they must not lose. This one just has 1.1 written all over it but should Besiktas get an early goal in Kiev, we might just see this one get tasty. Try BTTS @ 4/5 with this one looking like a good shout for a draw. Benfica usually score at home and will be going all out for the win but Napoli are more than capable of scoring as well, and given their own goalscoring prowess and their own need for a point to guarantee their position in the last 16, I expect both to net and a likely draw which depending on the result in Kiev, may not be good enough for the hosts. Man City vs Celtic Prediction - 3.2 Best Bets - BTTS @7/10, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @10/11 Key Facts * Man City have conceded in each of their last 5 home fixtures * Man City have seen BTTS in 11 of 15 fixtures this season including each of the last 5 * Man City have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 15 fixtures * The first fixture between these two sides saw Celtic claim a thrilling 3.3 draw * Man City have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 14 home Champions League group fixtures since 2011. * 6 of their most recent 7 home group fixtures saw BTTS and over 2.5 goals * Celtic have won just 1 away CL group stage fixture since their debut in the competition in 2001. * Celtic did manage a 1.1 draw in their last away CL fixture. Final Verdict Both sides have nothing to play for in the group with City assured of 2nd and Celtic unable to escape last place, no matter the outcome here. The visitors are likely to field a strong side with pride and £1million in prizemoney (for 3 points) still to play for and with nothing to fear, I expect an open and entertaining match and with this being an all British tie, I do imagine that Celtic won't be coming to lie down. Expect goals, entertainment and the Glasgow side to put up a strong display. I'm not backing them to get a result but they may just sneak it with City likely to field a comparatively weaker side with more pressing fixtures ahead. Over 2.5 and yes is my best selection here as I expect the visitors to raise their game and really put in a strong performance and for that reason we may see much more than your typical end of group dead rubber fixture with City rising to the occassion in what should be a fesity contest despite the relative lack of importance attached to the contest. Barcelona v Moenchengladbach Prediction - 3.1 Best Bets - Barcelona -1 to win @10/11 Key Facts * Moenchengladbach have lost 6 of their last 8 away fixtures by more than 1 goal * They conceded 21 goals in those 8 fixtures * The Germans are generally rotten on the road * Barcelona have won 9 of their last 11 home CL group fixtures by more than 1 goal Final Verdict Much like the Celtic fixture, there is nothing to play for here beyond pride and prize-money but the visitors come to the Camp Nou in a horrible run of form domesitcally, especially on the road and with both expected to make plenty of changes for this dead rubber fixtures, expect Barcelona's reserves to be better than the German reserves on show tonight. Barca need to get some form back after a pretty desperate run by their standards and I supect they will put on good display to claim a comfortable win here with enough to cover the handicap. BTTS has a chance but in my opinion there are better selections on offer and the form of the visitors is such that backing a home win by more than 1 offers more appeal than my usual goal selections. PSG V Ludogorets Prediction - 3.0 Best Bets - PSG -1 to win @8/15 Key Facts * PSG have won 9 of their last 12 home fixtures by more than 1 goal including 6 of the last 7 * PSG won 3.1 in Bulgaria in the reverse fixture between these two sides * Ludogorets conceded 6 in their last away CL fixture at Arsenal * PSG need a win to secure top spot Final Verdict A comfortable home win looks likely with the hosts needing a win to ensure their path to the next round is confirmed as group winners. PSG might not need a win depending on Arsenals result in Basle but I do expect them to get it and with a goal to spare on the handicap @8/15 with the hosts unlikely to take any chances as they look to secure the coveted top spot in the group. Best Bets Benfica v Napoli - BTTS @7/10 - NAP Man City v Celtic - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @10/11 - NB Barcelona v Moenchengladbach - Barca -1 to win @10/11 PSG V Ludogorgets - PSG -1 to win @1/2 Other selections to consider Basel v Arsenal - BTTS @ 4/6 PSV V Rostov - BTTS @ 10/11 Draw picks Bayern v Atletico Benfica v Napoli Double pays @11/1 Comments are closed.
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