As promised, here are my selections for Wednesday with 3 big games covered from Serie A. Golaciooooooooooooooo 19:45 Torino vs Genoa -
Prediction 2.1 Key Facts * 48 goals have been scored in Torino's last 12 league fixtures. That's an average of 4 goals per game * 10 of those 12 games saw BTTS and over 2.5 goals * Torino have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 11 of their last 12 HOME league fixtures * Torino have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 13 home league fixtures * Torino have scored 2 goals or more in 5 of their last 6 home league fixtures. * Torino have scored 20 goals in 8 home league fixtures this season * Each of the last 5 meetings between these two sides in the last 3 years have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals. A whopping 23 goals were scored in those 5 games * Last season's corresponding fixture finished in a 3.3 draw * 8 of the last 9 meetings between these two sides have seen BTTS with 6 also going over 2.5 goals * 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two sides in Turin have seen BTTS. 5 of those went over 2.5 goals * Genoa have scored 3 or more in their last 3 matches with Torino * Genoa are not consistent in the goals markets however their last fixture produced 7 goals as they crashed to a 4.3 home defeat to Palermo * Genoa have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 6 league matches * Genoa have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away league fixtures Final Verdict Genoa are not great goal scorers on the road but given the history and the form of Torino, goals have to be the best option here with so many thrillers taking place between these two sides in the past 3 years. The last 5 matches between these two sides finished; 3.2, 3,3, 5.1, 2.1 and 2.1 with Genoa scoring 3 or more in the last 3 matches. Something similar would do nicely here and I'm taking a chance on the two selections When doing my goal selections, I always look for 2 teams who are prominent in the goal markets. I usually tend to leave a fixture out if one of the sides involved is not a high performer in the BTTS or over 2.5 goal market. Genoa are one such side but despite that, I am taking the BTTS and over 2.5 goals option here simply because of Torino's fantastic form in both markets and because of the recent history between the two sides which has seen those exclusively high scoring contests of late. With Torino so rarely doing home clean-sheeets (only 1 in their last 13), goals have to be likely and while Genoa may not score a lot, their 4.3 home defeat last weekend bodes well for the possibility of goals again here while Torino's own form up top with 2 goals or more scored in 5 of their last 6 at home (20 in 8 at home so far this season) leads me to the conclusion that BTTS is likely @4/6 while the BTTS and over 2.5 goals selection also tempts and pays at 1/1. Genoa's away form is a concern but they have enough quality about them to score here against a Torino side that like to attack and rarely keep clean sheets with just 3 in their last 22 league games. Best Bets BTTS @4/6 BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19:45 Fiorentina vs Napoli Prediction 1.2 Key Facts * Napoli have scored 13 goals in their last 3 Serie A fixtures with 9 points collected * Napoli have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 10 league fixtures and in 3 of their last 5 on the road in Serie A * Napoli have kept only 3 clean sheets in their last 12 away league fixtures * Napoli leaked 3 at home to Torino last weekend despite being 3.0 up at half time. * Napoli have scored 17 goals in 9 away league fixtures this season * Napoli are unbeaten in each of their last 8 visits to Florence. * 4 of the last 5 meetings in Florence between these two sides saw BTTS * Fiorentina have seen BTTS in each of their last 4 home league fixtures. * Fiorentina have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in their last 3 home fixtures in all competitions and in 6 of their last 7 fixtures * Fiorentina have leaked 14 goals in those 7 fixtures * Fiorentina have lost 4 of their last 7 matches in all competitions * Fiorentina did not keep a clean sheet in any of those 7 fixtures * Fiorentina have scored in 28 of their last 31 home league fixtures although they have drawn blanks in 2 home fixtures so far this season * Fiorentina have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 16 home league fixtures (31% clean sheet ratio) Final Verdict Goals seem pretty likely here as Napoli head to Fiorentina with the visitors finding their shooting boots in their last 3 outings and the hosts leaking 2 goals per game on average over the last 6 weeks as they struggle to find their best form. Fiorentina are usually strong at home with only 1 loss in their last 15, but they don't have a great record over Napoli in recent years and their recent form of just 2 wins in 6 at home suggests that Napoli have every chance to take advantage of the home sides current defensive problems. BTTS is a bit short @4/7 but seems likely when you consider neither side are in the best of forms defenesively. Napoli struggle for away clean sheets while Fiorentina aren't in great form either with plenty of goals conceded in their recent fixtures (14 in 7). Ultimately, this could be a tough game for Napoli but I fancy them to edge to a 2.1 away success so BTTS, BTTS and over 2.5 goals and Napoli to score 2 or more all have a pretty strong chance, at least according to the latest stats, form and history. Best Bets BTTS @4/7 Napoli to score 2 or more @5/6 BTTS and over 2.5 goals @10/11 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 19:45 Cagliari vs Sassuolo Prediction - 1.1 Key Facts *Cagliari have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 9 home league fixtures including 5 of the last 6 * 39 goals have been scored in Cagliari's last 9 home league fixtures. That's an average of more than 4 per game * Cagliari have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 28 home league fixtures! * Cagliari have scored in 17 of their last 20 home league fixtures. Only Napoli (twice) and Palermo managed a clean-sheet on the island of Sardinia. * Sassuolo have seen BTTS in each of their last 8 away league fixtures * Sassuolo have a tremendous record of scoring on the road having done so in 21 of their last 22 away league fixtures! * 17 of those 22 games saw BTTS - that's a 77% success rate in the BTTS market * These sides have met 4 times previously in Serie A. All 4 matches saw BTTS with both fixtures at Cagliari also going over 2.5 goals (2.1 and 2.2) * Both sides are struggling for form. Cagliari have just 2 wins in their last 9 Serie A fixtures while Sassuolo have just 1 win from their last 9 Final Verdict This is the kind of fixture I like for BTTS with both sides showing great numbers in the markets. Sassuolo are so reliable when it comes to scoring in away games with 21 of their last 22 on the road producing at least 1 goal while the hosts are pretty solid when it comes to scoring in front of their own fans. End result? BTTS @4/6 looks nailed on, even if it won't be a high-scoring encounter which may finish with a share of the spoils. 0.0? Not a chance. Cagliari have not drawn 0.0 in any of their last 60 home league fixtures going back 4 years and I don't expect that to change here. Best Bets - BTTS @4/6 Best Bets for Thursday Torino v Genoa - BTTS @4/6 and Cagliari v Sassuolo - BTTS @4/6 (NAP Double) Torino v Genoa - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 Fiorentina v Napoli - BTTS @4/7 Fiorentina v Napoi - Napoli to score 2 or more @5/6 Fiorentina v Napoi - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @10/11 Comments are closed.
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