Saturday produced a winning 1/1 NAP with Burnley claiming a 1.1 draw at Liverpool but It was still a largely frustrating day as Spurs and Mainz drew blanks to deny my NB selections while I was denied a 50/1, 5 fold as Christian Eriksen failed to keep up his fine scoring record against Swansea. Frustrating. 4 of my 5 pocket change picks landed as well as my 2 tips from the Hibs Motherwell tie which hopefully helped some of you to some acca successes but we move on to Sunday's action and I've got a bumper preview with a huge game at Stamford Bridge covered in detail as Chelsea welcome London rivals Arsenal in a fixture that seems destined to go in only one direction. Elsewhere, I've covered 2 of our Bundesliga fixtures with Hoffenheim hosting Hertha and Freiburg traveling to the unpredictable Bayer Leverkusen while we have Serie A and La Liga best bets and previews as well. Here then are your Sunday previews and best bets! 13:30 Chelsea vs Arsenal - Prediction - 4.0
Best Bets - Chelsea to score 2 goals or more @8/13, Chelsea to win @4/5, Chelsea -1 to win @7/4, Chelsea to score 3 or more @2/1 Key Facts * Arsenal have lost each of their last 5 away matches at Chelsea * Arsenal conceded 15 goals and scored only 2 goals during these 5 fixtures * Arsenal lost by more than 1 goal in each of their last 4 visits to the Bridge * Since 2013, Arsenal have won only 2 of 21 away games against the PL's top 6. They conceded a whopping 52 goals in those games. * Arsenal conceded 2 goals or more in 11 of their last 13 away games against each of the top 6. * Arsenal have lost 7 of their last 10 away PL fixtures * Arsenal conceded 3 goals or more in 5 of those 10 fixtures * Arsenal have failed to score in 4 of their last 7 away PL fixtures * Chelsea have won their last 4 competitive fixtures, scoring 12 goals in the process * Chelsea have won 16 of their last 18 home league fixtures * Chelsea scored 2 goals or more in 15 of those 16 wins Final Verdict Something tells me that this might well be the final nail in the coffin of Professor Wenger with an unsettled Arsenal looking ripe for a real beating here at the hands of champions Chelsea. Of course, this is a coffin that has been a work in progress for at least 3 years now and I don't for one second expect Wenger to leave Arsenal before the season is out but surely a heavy loss here will leave him clinging to power in a fashion that could make even Teresa May blush. Chelsea have certainly started the season in stronger style and I am happy to smash into the hosts at 4/5 odds on for the win and to score 2 or more @8/13. Indeed, I fancy 3, 4 or even 5 for a Chelsea side that are simply too strong for an Arsena team that seem utterly rudderless, fumbling about with an in-fashion 3.5.2 formation with a group of players that seem to have grown accustomed to mediocrity, especially when it comes to away fixtures against the divisions top teams. I have always been an enormous fan of Wenger but surely he must now be feeling some tinge of regret at having signed a new contract on the back of that fine FA Cup final win in May. The perfect exit-point was there for the taking but Wenger elected to carry on with a team that has certainly failed to improve in the last 2 years. All of the same weaknesses from 1, 2, 5 or even 8 years ago have remained. Arsenal are still Arsenal. Occasionally dazzling, but rarely winning on rival territory and I can't see that changing here at Stamford Bridge against an impressive Chelsea that continue to flourish under Antonio Conte. In Conte, Chelsea have developed a real identity and in Alvaro Morata they seem to have found the perfect replacement for outgoing Diego Costa. Morata can score anytime at 10/11 while Eden Hazard is another I like to score @11/8. That being said, Arsenal have performed better when the least is expected of them but few will fancy them to claim even a draw here and I fully expect Chelsea to pull the Gunners pants down and I will be backing them to win, to score 2 or 3 and to win on the handicap. Chelsea to score 2 or more @8/13 has to be one of the best bets of the day while I can't look past the home win @4/5 and the 2/1 on Chelsea to score 3 or more has to be worth serious consideration. Sorry Arsenal fans, this could get ugly. _____________________________________________________________ Bundesliga 12:30 Hoffenheim vs Hertha Berlin - Prediction 1.0 Best Bets - Hoffenheim to win @7/10, Hoffenheim to win to nil @15/8, Under 2.5 goals @1/1 Key Facts * Hoffenheim have won 9 of their last 10 home Bundesliga fixtures keeping clean sheets in 8 of those victories * Hoffenheim are unbeaten in their last 19 home Bundesliga fixtures * Hertha have lost 10 of their last 11 away Bundesliga fixtures * Hertha failed to score in 7 of those 10 defeats * Both sides are facing their 3rd game in 7 days with both involved in midweek Europa League action * Hoffenheim have won 5 of their last 6 matches against Hertha Berlin in all competitions including each of their last 3 at home * Hoff won 1.0 in last seasons' corresponding fixture * There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 6 of Hoffenheim's last 7 home league games Final Verdict A very good home team takes on a very poor away team (at least based on last season's results) and for those reasons and the stats mentioned above, we have to take Hoffenheim to win @7/10 and to win to nil @15/8. Hertha were rotten on their travels last season and with the added distraction of European football, I don't expect them to get anything here against a team that knows how to win at home. Hoffenheim have only lost 4 of their last 37 league fixtures and with no losses in their last 19 on home territory, I expect them to edge to victory in what should be a low-scoring affair with both sides perhaps feeling the effects of their midweek European exertions. Hoffenheim to win @7/10 is certainly the safest pick and considering recent form, I fancy this one to go under 2.5 goals at generous 1/1 odds. _____________________________________________________________ 14:30 Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg - Prediction 2.2 Best Bets - BTTS @3/4, Freiburg not to lose @9/5 Key Facts * Freiburg have scored in 18 of their last 22 away Bundesliga fixtures * Freiburg have seen BTTS in 16 of their last 21 away Bundesliga fixtures * Freiburg have lost only 1 of their last 5 meetings with Leverkusen * Leverkusen have failed to win any of their last 7 home league fixtures * Leverkusen have won only 3 of their last 15 home Bundesliga fixtures with only 2 clean sheets in those 15 matches * Leverkusen have drawn 5 of their last 6 home league fixtures * Freiburg have lost each of their last 4 away Bundesliga fixtures by 3 goals. However, they were up against RB Leipzig (twice), Bayern Munich and Darmstadt Final Verdict Leverkusen have failed to win a league fixture at the Bay Arena since February and yet the bookies have the hosts as short as 4/9 to claim the spoils against a Freiburg side that are more than capable of making life difficult for a side that stlll doesn't look capable of managing games. Bayer have thrown leads away in 3 of their last 7 home failures and have a real Jekyll and Hyde element to their side. Expect the unexpected with Leverkusen. One exception to that is their ability to concede. Regularly. Wins have been rare with clean sheets measuring on the verge of extinct. Freiburg, on the other hand, showed extreme resilience in their most recent league outing, holding Dortmund to a 0.0 despite playing much of the match with 10 men and for that reason, I feel they can take a positive result away from Leverkusen. BTTS certainly has a good chance, especially considering Leverkusen's dismal record of home clean sheets (2 in their last 15) and with Freiburg doing well on their travels in the last 12 months, scoring in 18 of their last 22 on the road, I fancy them to net here and perhaps claim a draw or better @9/5. _____________________________________________________________ Serie A 14:00 Torino vs Sampdoria - Prediction - 2.2 Best Bets - BTTS @8/13, Draw @3/1 Key Facts * Torino have seen BTTS in 15 of their last 18 home league fixtures. * Torino scored in 17 of those 18 fixtures * Torino have kept only 3 clean sheets in their last 25 home league fixtures * Torino have drawn 6 of their last 11 home league fixtures, winning 4 and losing just 1 * Sampdoria have lost only 2 of their last 9 away league fixtures * Sampdoria have seen BTTS in each of their last 6 away Serie A fixtures * Going back even further, Samp have seen BTTS in 14 of their last 17 away league fixtures * Sampdoria have scored in 16 of their last 17 away league fixtures including each of the last 9! * 5 of the last 10 meetings between these sides have finished level * 2 of the last 3 meetings have seen BTTS including last seasons' corresponding fixture which finished 1.1 Final Verdict Both sides are capable of scoring here and if last season is anything to go on, over 2.5 goals is also likely in a fixture that has a habit of finishing level with 5 of the last 10 producing a share of the spoils. Both sides are quite evenly matched with Torino finishing only 5 points ahead of Sampdoria in last season's standings and with both beginning the new campaign with 2 wins, confidence is high in both squads, but for me, Torino are too short at 4/6 so I'm looking at BTTS @8/13 while Sampdoria can claim a point or more @5/4 odds not to lose. _____________________________________________________________ 15.00 Milan vs Udinese - Prediction 2.1 Best Bets - BTTS @1/1 Final Verdict Udinese have a good recent record against Milan, only losing 1 of their last 5 and actually winning 5 of their most recent 8 contests including both of last season's league fixtures, and while the Milanese giants have strengthened hugely over the summer, this is still a team in it's infancy while this is Milan's 3rd game in a week so I believe the visitors can push them all the way again here with BTTS my one selection for this fixture. Milan have kept only 3 clean sheets in their last 10 at home but Udinese haven't got the best of away records, losing each of their last 5, so BTTS is correctly priced at big odds of 1/1 but it certainly has a chance, especially considering those recent meetings between these two sides and if you fancy an anytime scorer, how about the wonderfully named Kevin Lasagna who should start up front for the visitors. Try the BTTS pick on your small stakes accas and if you fancy Udinese to keep up their excellent recent record, you can get 11/5 on Udinese not to lose. _____________________________________________________________ 15:15 Girona vs Sevilla - Prediction 2.2 Best Bets - BTTS @4/6, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @6/5 Key Facts * Sevilla have kept only 3 clean sheets in their last 11 away league fixtures * Sevilla have won only 1 of their last 7 away league fixtures * Girona are unbeaten in their opening 2 home league fixtures having held Atletico Madrid 2.2 and beating Malaga 1.0 * Sevilla have conceded 19 goals in their last 9 away competitive fixtures including 14 in their last 6 away La Liga fixtures * Sevilla face their 3rd game in 8 days following their 2.2-midweek draw at Liverpool in the UEFA CL. Final Verdict Girona have made a fabulous start to life in La Liga and they can continue the form here with the visit of a Sevilla side that struggled badly on the road towards the end of last season. Still, if Sevilla find their best form, you would expect them to claim the points but Girona have already shown in their opening home fixtures that they can make life difficult here for their more illustrious opponents. Girona are a bit short on the not to lose market @8/13 but I fancy them to score at least so Ill take the 4/6 on BTTS in a fixture that could well go over 2.5 goals as well. _____________________________________________________________ Sunday Best Bets Chelsea vs Arsenal - Chelsea to score 2 goals or more @8/13 Chelsea to win @4/5 - NAP Hoffenheim vs Hertha Berlin - Hoffenheim to win @7/10 Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg - BTTS @3/4 Torino vs Sampdoria - BTTS @8/13 Girona vs Sevilla - BTTS @4/6, Pocket Change Selections Freiburg not to lose @9/5 Hoffenheim to win to nil @15/8 Hoffenheim vs Hertha Berlin - Under 2.5 goals @1/1 Chelsea vs Arsenal - Chelsea -1 to win @7/4 Chelsea vs Arsenal -Chelsea to score 3 or more @2/1 Milan vs Udinese - BTTS @1/1 Torino vs Sampdoria - Draw @3/1 Comments are closed.
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