It was a tough day for @bobreaksbookies on Saturday with not much luck coming our way in either of our top trebles, nor even in my draw double with all 3 lines falling just 1 goal short. The Top Treble was beaten by Frankfurt's failure to score at home to Leverkusen which certainly came as a surprise considering the visitors had only kept 2 clean sheets in their previous 25 on the road. The NB Treble was let down by Werder Bremen's failure to score at RBL while my draw double was beaten by a late winner for Augsburg with the Liverpool/Chelsea tie going exactly as predicted with that 1.1 draw later in the day. Following those disappointments, I allowed myself an extra point on a 11/4 4 fold on the evening selections that were no longer running following the failure of those earlier bets. Fortunately I cashed out with Inter leading 2.0 at Cagliari to give myself an even day. So, we move on to Sunday's action and I've got 5 of the big games covered from across the continent with two of the evening fixtures holding some considerable appeal as the top 2 in both France and Spain go head to head with Paris travelling to Monaco and Valencia hosting Barcelona at the Mestalla. Here then are your Sunday facts and previews with plenty of selections to consider for my final best bets to be posted Sunday lunch-time. #BOlieve Premier League
15:00 Burnley vs Arsenal - Prediction 1.0 Best Bets - Under 2.5 goals @11/0, Burnley not to lose @6/4 Key Facts * Burnley have seen under 2,5 goals scored in 12 of their last 14 home league fixtures including all 6 games played so far this season at Turf Moor * Going back further, only 6 of Burnley's last 31 home league fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals. That's a mere 19%. * Burnley have seen less than 2.5 goals scored in 10 of their last 11 league fixtures (home and away) * Burnley have lost only 1 of their last 10 PL fixtures and none of their last 5 at home * Against the Premier League's Big 6, over the last 2 seasons, Burnley have seen 10 of those 12 home fixtures go UNDER 2.5 goals * Arsenal won 1.0 in both of their last two trips to Turf Moor * Arsenal have lost 4 of their 6 away PL fixtures so far this season, winning just once (at a rotten Everton) Final Verdict Burnley never make it easy against the big boys in the division, especially at Turf Moor and I expect a similar outcome here with Arsenal the visitors on Sunday afternoon. Rather surprisingly, Burnley come into this fixture level on points with their more illustrious opponents and given both sides respective home and away form, a Burnley win certainly wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world. In 10 of Burnley's last 11 home contests against the big 6, we have seen under 2.5 goals scored with Sean Dyche's men always providing solid resistance against the best teams in the country and given their continued improvement this season, we should expect another tight and low scoring match-up here. Arsenal have been rather fortunate in each of their last two visits to Burnley, winning both fixtures by just 1 goal to nil and I feel their luck might run out here with Burnley in the form of their lives at the moment, losing only 1 of their last 10 in the PL while they have already beaten Chelsea and held both Spurs and Liverpool. While all of those surprise results came on their travels, Burnley have always been strong at home and I fancy them to avoid defeat here at 11/8 odds while the 19/4 on offer for the home win is genuinely tempting, especially when we also consider how poor Arsenal have been this season away from the Emirates. I feel the bookies have got this one wrong in pricing over 2.5 goals @7/10 odds-on, so in a rare bet for @bobreaksbookies, I am going under 2.5 goals @11/10 odds against while I also feel the hosts can earn a point or better so you can back them not to lose @6/4 and to win @19/4 if you are feeling a bit lucky. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Bundesliga 14:30 Hamburg vs Hoffenheim - Prediction 1.1 Best Bets - BTTS @8/13 Key Facts * Hoffenheim have conceded 2 goals or more in 6 of their 10 away fixtures this season (all comps) * Hoffenheim have scored 2 goals or more in 5 of their last 6 away league fixtures * Hoffenheim have seen BTTS in 13 of their last 14 away league fixtures * Hoffenheim have kept clean sheets in only 5 of their last 34 away league fixtures * Hoffenheim lost 3.1 in Braga on Thursday in the Europa League * Hoffenheim have won only 2 of their last 12 fixtures in all competitions * Hamburg have lost 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga fixtures but did win 3.1 in their most recent home league fixture against Stuttgart * Each of the last 3 meetings between these two sides has seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored Final Verdict BTTS @8/13 is the call here with Hoffenheim regular fixtures in this market in away league fixtures. The visitors are bound to be fatigued following their Europa League defeat in Portugal on Thursday and for that reason, I fancy BTTS even with Hamburg struggling this season. On paper, Hoffenheim are certainly the better side, but their form over the last 2 months has been poor and Hamburg will surely take some confidence from their last home fixture, a 3.1 win over Stuttgart so I fancy this one could end up even and considering Hoffenheim have seen only two 0.0 nil draws in their last 45 away league fixtures, both are likely to score @8/13. Of course, I do have reservations about backing a team to score when they have failed to do so in 7 of their last 10 fixtures but Hoff have conceded in 9 out of 10 away fixtures this season (19 goals in total) while each of the last 3 meetings between these two sides has seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals. BTTS is priced @8/13 and will be included in one of my small stakes accas. __________________________________________________________________________________________________ La Liga 15:15 Real Sociedad vs Las Palmas - Prediction 3.1 Best Bets - Sociedad to score 3 or more @6/5, Sociedad -1 to win @21/20 Key Facts * Sociedad have scored 3 goals or more in 5 of their last 7 home fixtures (all competitions) * Sociedad have scored 21 goals in their last 8 home fixtures * Las Palmas have conceded 3 goals or more in each of their last 3 away La Liga fixtures. * Going back further, Las Palmas have conceded 3 goals or more in 10 of their last 14 away La Liga fixtures * Las Palmas have lost each of their last 8 La liga fixtures, conceding 3 or more in 5 of their last 6. * Las Palmas have lost by more than 1 goal in each of their last 7 league fixtures * Las Palmas have conceded 20 goals in their last 6 league fixtures * Las Palmas have failed to score in 8 of their last 9 away matches (La Liga) Final Verdict Las Palmas are in the midst of a dismal run and they will do well to avoid another heavy defeat when they travel to San Sebastian to face a Real Sociedad side that have a habbit of scoring heavily on their own turf. Head-coach Eusebio has got Sociedad playing some dangerous attacking football this season and with Las Palmas boasting such a poor record of late, and especially on the road, we should see a convincing home victory. Sociedad did face a midweek trip to Norway as they edged our Rosenborg, however, I'm still confident they will get the job done here against a team that seem devoid of all confidence. as they continue to slip from one heavy defeat to another. I'm taking a chance on the Basque side to score 3 or more @6/5 although if you want to play it safer, 2 or more is priced @4/11 and does seem pretty likely, while I expect the hosts to cover the handicap as well @21/20 with Las Palmas failing to score in 8 of their last 9 away league fixtures. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 19:45 Valencia vs Barcelona - Prediction 2.1 Best Bets - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @4/6, Valencia to score 2 or more @5/4, Valencia or draw @1/1 Key Facts * Valencia have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 9 league fixtures * Valencia set a club record in their last outing at Espanyol, their 9th successive La Liga victory * Valencia have scored 15 goals in their 4 most recent home league fixtures * Each of the last 3 meetings between these two sides has seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored. 14 goals were scored in those 3 matches * 7 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides in Valencia has seen BTTS * Valencia have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 3 meetings with Barcelona * Barcelona have drawn 3 of their last 6 away fixtures (all competitions) * Barcelona have kept clean sheets in each of their last 5 away fixtures Final Verdict What a turn around it has been for Valencia this season with the club recording a stunning 9 successive league wins to leave them 2nd in the table behind their opponents here, setting themselves up nicely for this top of the table clash from the Mestalla. While Barcelona have been in good form defensively, I still fancy Valencia to score and perhaps pull off the shock win that everyone else in Spain will be rooting for, perhaps for more than merely sporting reasons. Historically, and particularly in Valencia, this match produces goals with 7 of the last 8 seeing BTTS, even when Barcelona were at their best and Valencia were nowhere near as strong as they are now. Barcelona are defending well, but Valencia thesmelves are full of confidence and I expect another thriller here with this fixture not disappointing in each of the last 2 seasons. 2 years ago, Valencia lost 7.0 in the Nou Camp under the stewardship of Gary Neville but since that nadir, Valencia have competed well in the 4 subsequent fixtures, with BTTS in all 4 contests and I fancy the same here with this one having every chance of going over 2.5 goals. Barcelona are the favourites, but I fancy the hosts not to lose @1/1 while they can score 2 or more @5/4 if they can maintain their current form which has seen them score 2 or more in all of their 9 recent wins. Valencia are 3/1 to claim the win, and 1/1 not to lose while BTTS and over 2.5 goals is likely as well in a fixture that has so often provided plenty of goals and drama and with this fixture bringing the weekend to a close, let's hope both sides bring their A game. Should that happen, goals are surely inevitable. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Serie A 14:00 Udinese vs Napoli - Prediction 1.2 Best Bets - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 Key Facts * Napoli have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures (all comps) * Napoli have won 15 of their last 17 away league fixtures * Napoli have scored 2 goals or more in a remarkable 17 of their last 20 away Serie A fixtures however they drew a blank in their most recent away fixture at Chievo * Udinese have seen BTTS in 11 of their last 15 home league fixtures * Udinese have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 home league fixtures * Udinese have scored in 20 of their last 22 home league fixtures although they did draw a blank in their most recent home outing * 4 of the last 6 meetings between these two sides saw BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored * Both of the last two meetings between these two sides in Udine have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals * Udinese have scored in 7 of their last 8 home meetings with Napoli Final Verdict Napoli have drawn 0.0 on two occasions this season following midweek Champions League football and while they did perform well in dismissing Shakhtar, I am wary of backing goals with those two results suggesting they have struggled to balance European with domestic football this season. Still, goals are usually on the cards in Udine with the hosts finding the net in 14 of their last 15 and with Napoli usually managing 2 or more on the road, we could well see the BTTS and overs selection pay off but this selection will be kept for a small stakes acca with my concerns over Napoli's form in weekends after Champions League fixtures _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 17:00 Lazio vs Fiorentina - Prediction 2.1 Best Bets - Lazio to score 2 or more @4/7, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21 Key Facts * Fiorentina have conceded 2 goals or more in 7 of their last 11 away league fixtures including 2 of their last 4 (at Crotone and Chievo) * Fiorentina have collected only 1 point from their last 3 fixtures, conceding 7 goals in the process * Lazio have scored 2 goals or more in 9 of their last 11 Serie A fixtures * In fact, Lazio have scored a whopping 32 goals in those 11 matches * Lazio have seen BTTS in 12 of their last 16 fixtures (all competitions) * Lazio have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 6 of their last 8 home league fixtures * Fiorentina have seen BTTS in 6 of their last 8 league fixtures * Fiorentina have seen BTTS in 3 of their last 4 away league fixtures * Lazio have won 9 of their last 11 league fixtures, including 6 of the last 7, scoring 2 goals or more in all 6 of those recent victories * Lazio have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 15 league victories * Lazio have kept only 3 clean sheets in their last 21 league fixtures * Lazio are already 11 points clear of Fiorentina with only 13 matches played so far this season * Lazio have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 6 meetings with Fiorentina * In fact, Lazio scored 3 goals or more in 4 of those matches * Each of the last 4 meetings between these two sides has seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored with 19 goals scored in those fixtures * Lazio scored 10 of those goals with Fiorentina scoring 9 Final Verdict Goals are expected when Fiorentina travel to Rome to take on an impressive Lazio side that have been winning and hitting the net regularly this season. The hosts have bagged 2 or more in each of their last 15 league wins and I expect that to continue here against a Fiorentina side that are already struggling to keep pace with the best teams in the division. Lazio have scored 2 or more in 9 of their last 11 and they can repeat that here with Fiorentina conceding 2 or more in 7 of their last 11 on the road. Lazio to score 2 or more @8/13 is my best bet here while you have to fancy that BTTS and over 2.5 goals has a good chance, with Lazio not keeping many clean sheets either this season and with 19 goals shared between these two in their last 4 contests, we could see something similar here. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Ligue 1 20:00 Monaco vs PSG - Prediction 1.4 Best Bets - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @8/13, PSG to score 3 or more @6/5, PSG to win @8/15 Key Facts * PSG have scored 3 goals or more in 8 of their last 10 fixtures (in all comps) including each of the last 5 * PSG have scored a sensational 41 goals in their last 10 fixtures (all comps) * PSG have won 17 out of 19 games so far this season, scoring 69 goals in the process! * PSG have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of their last 9 fixtures in all competitions * In the last 2 months, Monaco have conceded 12 goals in 4 games against Porto (3), RB Leipzig (4), Lyon(3) and Besiktas (2). * PSG have scored 11 goals in their last 3 meetings with Monaco * 4 of the last 5 meetings have seen BTTS with each of the last 3 meetings also going over 2.5 goals Final Verdict Based on current form, Monaco will do well to avoid a heavy loss when PSG roll into the French Riviera, fresh from their 7.1 smashing of Scottish also-rans Celtic. The Parisien party continues apace with Neymar, Cavani and Mbappe in sizzling form and it's hard to imagine PSG not leaving with anything less than a comfortable victory. Monaco have struggled defensively this season, most recently in their 4.1 trouncing at home to RB Leipzig and with PSG in such good form, they will be confident of really putting on a show as they bid to stretch their lead at the top of the table to 9 points against a team that have won only 3 of their last 10 fixtures. PSG to win @8/15 and to score 2 or more @2/5 look locked on but I fancy them to score 3 or more @6/5, a feat that have managed in each of their last 5 fixtures. BTTS and over 2.5 goals is very short @8/13 but does seem likely with Monaco scoring in 5 of their last 6 matches against PSG and with home advantage, they may make a game of it, at least for a while against a PSG side that have conceded in 5 of their last 9 fixtures. Ultimately, the visitors will have too much quality and I can't see them scoring less than 2 but if they get 3, 4 or even 5, it certainly wouldn't surprise me. Sunday Best Bets Real Sociedad vs Las Palmas - Sociedad to score 3 or more @6/5 Real Sociedad vs Las Palmas - Sociedad -1 to win @21/20 Udinese vs Napoli - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 Valencia vs Barcelona - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @4/6 Valencia vs Barcelona -Valencia to score 2 or more @5/4 Valencia vs Barcelona -Valencia or draw @1/1 Lazio vs Fiorentina - Lazio to score 2 or more @4/7 Lazio vs Fiorentina - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21 Monaco vs PSG - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @8/13 Monaco vs PSG - PSG to score 3 or more @6/5 Monaco vs PSG - PSG to win @8/15 Burnley vs Arsenal - Burnley not to lose @11/8 Burnley vs Arsenal - Under 2.5 goals @11/10 Hamburger vs Hoffenheim - BTTS @8/13 Comments are closed.
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