It's the penultimate day in the Italian season and there are still some issues at the top of the table to be resolved with Champions League and Europa League positions still up for grabs but beyond that, most teams have little to play for and with Italy ripe for goals lately, I will be focusing purely on the BTTS and over 2.5 goal markets as I expect another day of open football and leaky defenses. There are 2 games in Holland as well with the 2nd legs of the Europa League play-offs bringing to a conclusion our best action for today. Here are my best bets for all the action in Italy and Holland. Serie A
12:30 Empoli vs Sampdoria - Prediction 2.2 Best Bets - BTTS @4/7, BTTS and over 2.5 @20/21 BTTS looks likely here but it's an early game so I might give it a miss. Still, the stats do look good. Empoli have seen BTTS in 5 of their last 6 fixtures and 8 from 11 overall including each of their last 5 fixtures at home, of which 4 went over 2.5 goals. Samp's away record suggest this bet is very possible with 6 of their last 8 on the road seeing BTTS with 5 of those going over 2.5 goals. Empoli have scored in each of their last 8 at home while Samp have scored in 8 of their last 9 away games and with little to play for now, I expect both sides to be free from pressure and serve up a good game with plenty of goals. 15:00 Udinese vs Sassuolo - Prediction 3.2 - Best Bets - BTTS @8/15, BTTS and over 2.5 @10/11, DI Natale to score anytime @5/6 Udinese welcome Sassuolo for club legend Antonio Di Natale's final home game in another fixture that suggests goals based on some rather convincing stats Udinese have seen BTTS in each of their last 6 home games of which all 6 went over 2.5 goals. Extending the record to include away games shows us that Udinese have seen BTTS in 8 of their previous 10 league matches, of which 6 went over 2.5 (all at home) Sassuolo's record makes this bet look pretty obvious with each of their previous 4 away games all going with BTTS while the record looks even more impressive over time with 11 of their last 13 away games seeing BTTS, of which 10 went over 2.5 goals. With neither side in danger of relegation I expect another open and entertaining game and with this the final home game for club legend Antonio di Natale, I'm backing the brilliant 37yr old striker to score anytime @1/1 odds. I'm not gonna back a winner here but I will back BTTS @8/15 and BTTS and over 2.5 @10/11 and don't forget Di Natale. He WILL score today. Mark my words. 15:00 Chievo vs Atalanta - Prediction 1.1 - Best Bets - BTTS @8/11 Both sides are now safe from relegation and we could see ANOTHER BTTS selection here with Atalanta specialists in the market. They are now on a run of 9 successive BTTS games which extends to a record of 14 out of 16 over the longer period with 6 of their last 7 away days also seeing BTTS Chievo are not nearly as rampant in the BTTS market but based on the Atalanta stats and that 5 of Chievo's last 9 home fixtures have seen BTTS, I expect another here when these 2 sides meet. It might not be as high scoring as some of the other games but I still expect BTTS here with the spoils shared. 15:00 Palermo vs Fiorentina - Prediction - 2.2 Best Bets - BTTS @1/2, Palermo to score 2 or more @5/4, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @8/11 7 of Palermo's last 9 home fixtures have seen BTTS, including their most recent 4, with 6 of those games going over 2.5 goals and the island side rarely fail to score when they play at home with 13 of their last 15 home fixtures seeing Palermo score at least one goal. Fiorentina have seen 6 of their last 9 away fixtures finish with BTTS and 4 of their last 5 fixtures overall have also followed the pattern while they tend to score in most away games this season, scoring at least one goal in 14 of 17 away fixtures. The 2 sides played out a 7 goal thriller in their previous meeting in January and while I don't expect as many as 7 goals, I do expect BTTS. Looking a little closer, I feel there is a good chance of Palermo scoring 2 or more in this fixture at odds of 5/4. Palermo have scored 2 or more in each of their last 3 home games, and in 8 out of their last 12. Fiorentina meanwhile have been very leaky on the road of late, conceding 2 or more in their last 5 away fixtures. The Florentines do need points to hold off Genoa to maintain their 5th position and Europa League qualification but this has been a long and hard season for Fiorentina with extended cup runs both domestically and in Europe and I fully expect a tough game for them here against a side that have lost only 4 times at home this season. With this being an end of season game and bearing in mind the 4.3 win for Fiorentina in January, I expect more goals here and while BTTS is just 1/2 it looks pretty damn likely. What happened to Italian defenders eh? 15:00 Parma vs Verona - Prediction 1.0 Best Bets - No bet I'm giving this fixture a miss with Parma unpredictable and capable of big wins at home and they rarely see BTTS with just 1 of their last 8 matches at home resulting in my favoured market. No bet 15:00 Cesena vs Cagliari - Prediction 1.1 Best Bets - No bet BTTS is of course likely but at 4/9 its way too short a price. Both sides are already relegated so for me this game doesn't appeal. No bet. 20:45 AC Milan vs Torino - Prediction 1.1 Best Bets - BTTS @8/15 Milan welcome Torino to the San Siro for their final home game of the season in the evening game live on BT Sport and it's another big contender for BTTS. It's been a truly awful campaign for the Rossoneri and manager Pippo "offside" Inzaghi and with the fallen giants sitting 11th in the table, big changes are sure to be made in the summer with new owners also expected to take over from Silvio Berlusconi. Milan's form at home has been poor with just 4 wins from 11 but with BTTS in 8 of those fixtures, including 7 of their last 8(and each of their last 5) and I expect a repeat with the visit of a decent Torino tonight. Just 4 clean sheets all season at home tells its own story but we can usually rely on Milan to score at least once, having done so in 13 of their last 15 home fixtures and it's also worth noting that 6 of their last 8 BTTS matches also went over 2.5 goals. Torino’s stats are just as convincing with 7 of their last 8 away days seeing BTTS and 5 of those fixtures also went over 2.5 goals. You can be confident in backing Torino to score when they travel, having done so in 10 successive fixtures in Serie A. So BTTS looks solid and with 5 of the last 6 meetings between the 2 sides seeing the market appear, I'm confident in a repeat here at 8/15 odds. Bunga Bunga Silvio. Netherlands Europa League Playoff 12:30 Vitesse vs PEC Zwolle - Prediction 2.1 Best Bets - Vitesse to win @!/2, BTTS and over 2.5 goals - price not avaialble, should be around 8/11 Vitesse should finish the job off against PEC in the 2nd leg of their play-off, coming into this match with a 2.1 lead from Thursday's tie in Zwolle. Bet365 have not priced up my favourite BTTS or BTTS and over 2.5 goals and those were going to be my bets here so if you can find that bet, that's my tip but I'll also take the 1/2 on a home win. 18:30 Feyenoord vs Heerenveen - Prediction 2.1 Best Bets - BTTS @ price not available Feyenoord have lost their last 2 at home and I'm not convinced they should be as short as 1/2 to win here. BTTS is more likely with 7 of Feyenoord's previous 9 home matches seeing that outcome and with just 1 clean sheet in that period, I expect a repeat here. Heerenveen have scored in 15 of their 18 away matches this season and have kept just 4 clean sheets in those 18 so It looks more than likely that BTTS will be on here. Probably around 1/2 at other bookies, it looks like a solid selection. Bo's Best Bets Milan v Torino - BTTS @8/15 Udinese v Sassuolo - BTTS @8/15 Palermo v Fiorentina - BTTS @1/2 Palermo v Fiorentina - BTTS and over 2.5 @8/11 Udinese v Sasssuolo - BTTS and over 2.5 @10/11 Chievo v Atalanta - BTTS @8/11 Antonio Di Natale to score anytime @5/6 Palermo to score 2 or more @5/4 Comments are closed.
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