It's the last day of the Premier League season and the big issue left to be decided is the final relegation position with Hull needing to beat Man Utd to have any chance of survival. Newcastle need to match Hull's result to stay in the division and will be wary of the returning Sam Allaradyce and his West Ham side who travel to St James's for a potentially crucial fixture. There's a play-off final from Wembley to look at as well on this our last day of domestic league action in the UK for the season. :( Here are my previews, predictions and best bets for the final day of the season in England. Premier League
16:00 Arsenal vs West Bromwich Albion - Prediction 1.1 Best Bets - Draw or West Brom @2/1 Arsenal will want to finish the season on a high having failed to score in their last 3 home matches to slip to 3rd in the table, but WBA won't make it easy in this end of season fixture. WBA have lost just 2 of their last 9 away games, are unbeaten in their most recent 3 and come into this match fresh on the back of a fine 3.0 win over champions Chelsea this past Monday. Arsenal are limping over the finish line and will secure 3rd but the 5 dropped points to Swansea and Sunderland have cost them the chance of finishing 2nd in the league and I don't think they will get the win here either. The Gunners are just 2/5 to get the win but I much prefer the 2/1 on WBA not to lose, given their form, away record and the fact that Arsenal seem to have settled for their 3rd position and have struggled for goals of late. I expect WBA to be disciplined, compact and dangerous on the break. BTTS is possible @5/6 but I'm siding with WBA not to lose at tasty 2/1 odds. 16:00 Aston Villa vs Burnley - Prediction - 2.1 - Best Bets - Villa to win @11/10, BTTS @8/11 Villa were thumped 6.1 by Southampton last week but have secured their safety ahead of this final match at home to already relegated Burnley. Despite the hammering at St Mary's last week, you have to give credit to Tim Sherwood has made Villa a pretty decent side in recent weeks, even if they do lack the tactical nous to go and perform well at a good side like Southampton. Burnley have faded as the season has progressed and can't buy a goal for love nor money but perhaps a game against Tim's attacking side will give Burnley fans something to shout about before their return to the Championship next season. I expect a home win in what should be an open encounter but I also believe BTTS has a good chance despite the terrible run for Burnley which has seen them score just 1 goal in their last 8 games. Villa have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 10 at home and under Sherwood they play a style of football that does leave them open to a counter attack and with this being the last game of the season, I expect both sides to want to finish on a high and BTTS @8/11 has a chance. 16:00 Chelsea vs Sunderland - Prediction - 2.0 - Best Bets - No bet Chelsea will lift the Premier League trophy on Sunday and you would expect them to celebrate in style given that Sunderland are now safe and probably had a few shandies on Wednesday evening following their 0.0 draw (tipped up by Bo) at Arsenal that secured their Premier League status for another season. I'm not gonna bet on this one but I do expect a fairly routine home win for Chelsea here. 16:00 Crystal Palace vs Swansea - Prediction - 1.2 - Best Bets - Swansea to win @12/5, BTTS 8/13 Swansea travel to London for their final game of the season at a Crystal Palace side who will be delighted to have retained their Premier League status for another season. The Swans are the form side at the moment and have a pretty impressive record on the road lately, winning 5 of their last 8 away league games, including 3 of the last 4. In contrast Palace have lost 5 of their last 8 at home including each of their last 3 and that makes the 12/5 on offer for the away win rather tempting but given that they have scored in 8 of their last 11 at home, I quite fancy BTTS here @8/11 although it is worth noting that have drawn a blank in 2 of their last 3 at home. Swansea have scored in 11 of their last 13 away games and under Gary Monk have added a steeliness to their attacking style and you have to admire the way they have finished the season, particularly when you consider the loss of their talisman and top goalscorer Wiflried Bony in the January transfer windows. With it being an end of season affair, it’s tough to make too much of a case for either side but the odds of 12/5 on an away win look pretty sexy to me. BTTS is also pretty likely based on the stats discussed. 16:00 Everton vs Tottenham - Prediction 3.1 Best Bets - Everton to win @ 7/5, over 2.5 goals @13/20 An end of season clash between 2 of the bigger sides in the division and it's unlikely either will be especially pleased with how their season has turned out. Under new boss Pochettino, Spurs were looking pretty good at Christmas but the new year has seen them fall away somewhat and they have only won 3 of their last 9 in the league and just 1 away win in their last 5. Spurs are the kings of the over’s markets with 14 of their last 15 away fixtures in the PL following that pattern and I expect that record to continue here. Everton are good at home lately though, winning 6 of their last 7 in all comps and they may take advantage of a Spurs side that were pretty awful in their most recent away fixture, a 3.0 reverse at Stoke. I'm a little concerned that Everton seem to keep so many clean sheets but it's hard to ignore the over 2.5 market, especially when you factor in that both sides like to go forward and with little reason to sit back and defend, we should see an open game that ends up with 3 home points. 16:00 Hull vs Manchester United - Prediction 2.2 Best Bets - BTTS @4/6, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @11/10 It's do or die for Hull as they absolutely have to win today and hope that Newcastle drop points at home to West Ham if they are going to stay in the division. Much depends on the kind of line up that United put out here but you would have to think Hull have half a chance and surely the players will be giving their absolute all as they attempt to rescue a pretty desperate situation. I'm not gonna back Hull but I do expect BTTS here with Hull so desperate and United being United. Steve Bruce has never beaten Man Utd in 21 previous attempts as manger, with 17 of those finishing in losses, and if his Hull career is going to continue then surely he has to mastermind the greatest of escape for the Tigers. Hull usually score at home, and did so against the likes of Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs this season so I expect them to do so again here and we can assume that with only 5 clean sheets in 18 previous home games, United are likely to score as well. I can't call this one yet, but I have a sneaky feeling Hull will go close but much depends on the United team that takes the field. BTTS is priced at 4/6 and I also like the looks of BTTS and over 2.5 goals @11/10. 16:00 Leicester vs Queens Park Rangers - Prediction 1.0 - Best Bets - No bet It's QPR's last fixture before their relegation and I don't expect them to get anything against an on form Leicester. Still, at just 3/5 to claim the win, I'm not entirely convinced that it will be a routine win for Leicester with safety already assured and with QPR winning last week, they might give their fans a little pre- relegation cheer. I do expect a win for Leicester but I just feel the price is a little on the short side but if they name a full strength team, I'll probably be on them. 16:00 Manchester City vs Southampton - Prediction 4.2 Best Bets - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @4/5 I think we might see a good game here as Southampton travel to Manchester looking to finish their excellent season on a well deserved high. Man City have been excellent at home lately with 6 straight wins while Saints have lost 4 of their last 5 on the road but don't make the assumption that this is a home banker for City. Both sides scored 6 goals in last weekend’s fixtures and I expect some more goals today with plenty of attacking flair on show and BTTS is possible despite this season's stats not making it a clear pick. Still 5 of the last 6 meetings between the 2 sides have seen BTTS and I expect a similar outcome here at 8/15 odds. City should win, given their record at home but Saints should make a good game of it here and I'm hoping we might see a bit of a thriller here on the last day of the season so I'll take a chance on BTTS and over 2.5 goals @4/5. 16:00 Newcastle United vs West Ham - Prediction - 1.1 - Best Bets - Draw @11/5 What a crap team Newcastle are and if they are relegated today they will have surely deserved it having taken only 1 point from their last 10 league matches and they need a win today to be sure of their survival. West Ham have finished the season pretty poorly but their form in the early part of the campaign has still enabled them to finish in the top half of the table and quite why they are looking to replace Big Sam is anyone's guess. Sure they aren't the best team to watch at times but survival in this league is not easy to obtain for a club like West Ham and when you have Allardyce as boss, you are pretty much guaranteed to stay up. Allardyce of course is the former manager of Newcastle and you would have to imagine (especially given his personality) that he will be desperate to score one over his old employers and be the man to send them down. Under John Carver, Newcastle have been a shambles and I don't believe they have the mental fortitude to go out and get the win they might just need. Of course this is all irrelevant should Hull fail to beat Man Utd but I don't expect Newcastle to win here either and it could be a hugely tense occasion should Hull get an advantage in their game with United. I have a big feeling for a draw here which won't be enough to keep Newcastle up should Hull get the win they need but that of course is a big if. 16:00 Stoke vs Liverpool - Prediction - 2.1 - Best Bets - Stoke to win @5/2, BTTS @4/6. I'm backing Stoke to score an end of season victory over a Liverpool side that haven't had the best of weeks with the news that golden boy Raheem Sterling won't be extending his contract. It's a popular myth in football that Stoke is the worst place to visit as though they have some kind of vicious home record but in fact the reality is the opposite this season. Sitting in 9th place, Stoke have only the 10th best home record in the division and while they have won 4 of their last 6 at the Britania, it is not quite the fortress some pundits would have you believe; IE "Can he/they do it on "A cold night in Stoke" is the popular cliché trotted out by idiots of the game when discussing a foreign player/or a team’s level of quality and while it might not be cold, wet or windy today, I still fancy the home side to get the job done! Liverpool are in a poor state right now, are without a win in 4 away games and need a win here if they are to guarantee themselves 5th place in the division and the subsequent Europa League "reward" that comes with it but whether that is something Brendan Rodgers actually wants for next season is open to interpretation. With Spurs visiting Everton and Southampton visiting Man City, it is entirely possible that Liverpool could still lose here and still claim that coveted prize of Thursday night football and the Europa League. Oh and 5th place. Looking at the stats, we see that Stoke almost always score at home, having done so in 15 of their last 16 home games this season with only Chelsea (surprise surprise) keeping a clean sheet at the Britana so I'm pretty sure they can breach Liverpool tomorrow. 6 of their last 9 home fixtures have seen BTTS and in 6 previous meetings with Liverpool at the Britania we have seen this outcome on 4 occasions so it definitely has a chance again today. Liverpool aren't prolific in the BTTS stats but with this being an end of season game we should see a few more chances than normal However, I like Stokes chances here in what should be a decent game and while BTTS has a good chance, I may take a gamble and back the home win at very tasty odds of 5/2. Bo's Best Bets Man City v Saints - BTTS and over 2.5 @4/5 Everton vs Tottenham - over 2.5 match goals @13/20 Palace v Swansea - BTTS @8/13 Stoke not to lose to Liverpool @8/11 Stoke v Liverpool - BTTS @4/6 Hull v Man Utd - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @11/10 Everton vs Tottenham - Everton to win @ 7/5 Swansea to beat Palace @12/5 West Brom not to lose to Arsenal @2/1 Villa v Burnley - BTTS @8/11 Comments are closed.
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