It was an excellent Saturday at bobreaksbookies with plenty of winners and profit including an 8/1 winner in the Faroe Islands and we have 1 more evening of Euro qualifiers to enjoy/endure as well as 2 more games from the Copa America later tonight as Brazil and Colombia get their campaigns underway as I look to finish the weekend on a high. I'll post my results from yesterday later on today but for now, here are my previews for tonight's action including those 2 late fixtures from the Copa in Chile. 18:00 Estonia vs San Marino Prediction 3.0- Best Bets - Estonia -2 to win @4/5.
Hardly the pick of the action this weekend, minnows San Marino travel to Estonia and I have picked out a bet that looks almost too good to be true when you consider the stats. San Marino, as we know, are pretty much the worst team in the world, and they have a record that is the envy of, well, absolutely no-one. In competitive fixtures, ie, any World Cup or European Championship event, San Marino's record is truly appalling but when they go away from home, it is almost comical how poor they are; Played 58, lost 57, drawn 1 - scored 4, conceded 312. Really, conceded 312 goals in 25 years of competitive fixtures on the road. And I thought us Scotland fans had it tough... The bet I'm looking at is of course on the handicaps with Estonia just 1/10 to win but you can get a stand out 4/5 on Estonia -2 and when you look at San Marino's record, it's hard to see how this won't be a winner. San Marino have lost by 3 or more goals in 56 of those 58 games, with their 2 best results being a 2.0 defeat in Greece in 1994, and an unlikely 1.1 draw in Latvia 7 years later. Estonia were held to a shock 0.0 draw in the reverse fixture earlier this season, which perhaps explains the price on offer but I just cannot ignore 4/5 on Estonia -2 when you see those stats. 56 out of 58 away defeats have been by more than 2 goals and they have shipped 35 goals in their last 7 competitive away fixtures. Of course the hosts are hardly the strongest team in Europe, but they were good enough to beat Slovenia at home last September in qualifying, and then away to Finland in their most recent friendly, so surely they can stick a few past the minnows. I expect a comfortable 3 or 4 goal win for the hosts and I'm making the -2 on Estonia @4/5 my lock of the weekend. 18:00 Slovenia vs England Prediction -0.0 - Best Bets - Slovenia not to lose @10/11, Draw @5/2 England travel to Slovenia expecting a 6th win in the group as they look to secure the easiest of qualification campaigns yet but they might have their work cut out for them against a decent Slovenian outfit who are right in the mix with Switzerland to claim the 2nd automatic qualification position. The hosts have won 6 of their last 7 home qualifying fixtures and their win over 2nd seeds Switzerland gives them a great chance to claim a place in the finals next summer. England have won their 2 away fixtures in the group so far but they were held to 3 away draws in their last qualifying campaign with games in Poland, Montenegro and Ukraine all finishing level and given that this match falls in mid June, and with England all but qualified, I have a feeling they won't be at their best in this fixture with summer vacations at the forefront of their thinking, and I'm backing the home side to avoid defeat @10/11 with a draw the most likely outcome for me. Slovenia are hardly the best side in Europe but neither are England and I think we might end up seeing a dull draw with goals at a premium. 20:45 Lithuania vs Switzerland Prediction - 0.1 - Best Bets - Switzerland to win to nil @20/21 Swtizerland need the win to edge clear of Slovenia as the chase for 2nd place goes on with the Swiss and Slovenians locked together on 9 points behind secction leaders England. The Swiss are short at 2/5 but they do win on the road frequently with 9 wins from their last 15 away games and they should win again here against a limited Lithuanian side that need to win if they are to have any chance of claiming a top 3 position themselves. Lithuania are without a goal in 6 and I expect a narrow away win with a clean sheet to boot. EURO qualification grp. C 18:00 Ukraine vs Luxembourg - Prediction - 3.0- Best Bets - Ukraine to win -1 goal @1/2 Ukraine should record a comfortable victory against Luxembourg side that usually lose by more than 1 when they travel away for a qualifying fixture. The visitors have lost of 8 of their last 11 away qualifiers from both this seasons Euro qualifiers and the most recent World Cup qualification campaign. The only teams to fail to win by more than 1 were Northern Ireland (when they were rubbish), Albania and Azerbaijan. Their most recent results include a 4.0 home defeat to Spain, followed by a 3.0 home reverse to Ukraine and then a 3.0 loss in Slovakia and I expect a similar outcome here. 20:45 Belarus vs Spain Prediction -0.2 Best Bets - Spain -1 to beat Belarus @20/21, Morata to score anytime @6/5, Spain to win @1/3 Spain travel to Minsk with qualification still not in the bag for the reigning champions who should ease to a comfortable win against limited opponents. Spain are not the same beast they were 2 years ago, but they are still packed with quality and I don't expect Belarus to present too much of an obstacle today. The hosts have been beaten by more than 1 goal in their home matches with Slovakia and Ukraine and I expect that pattern to continue at odd just under evens against a Spain side that won the reverse fixture 3.0 last year. Historically, Belarus tend to lose by more than 1 goal when the big sides come to Minsk and i fancy a repeat here at attractive odds of 20/21. The safer option of Spain to win @1/3 is still backable. Juventus striker Alvaro Morata is in tremendous form having scored against both Real Madrid and Barcelona in the closing stages of the Champions league and if he starts as expected, I fancy the hitman to hit the net tonight @6/5 odds. It should be a comfortable win for Spain against a side that have shown very little in the campaign so far. 20:45 Slovakia vs Macedonia - Prediction -2.0 - Best Bets - Slovakia to win @!/3, Slovakia -1 to win @11/10 Slovakia are 1/3 favourites to beat Macedonia here and with good reason given both sides respective form. The Slovaks are very strong in the last 2 years, and have won 11 of their last 12 matches, including their last 6 at home with impressive wins over Spain, Montenegro and the Czech reupublic as well as winning all 5 qualifiers so far and it's hard to see them dropping any points against a Macedonia side that have lost 17 of their last 20 away qualifiers from the last 5 years and only have 3 points from a win over Luxembourg in this campaign. The Slovaks won the reverse fixture by 2 goals to 0 and I expect a similar outcome here. You can get a tempting 11/10 on Slovakia -1 so it is by no means a banker but the home win alone at 1/3 odds looks pretty safe. EURO qualification grp. G 18:00 Liechtenstein vs Moldova - Prediction 1.0- Best Bets = Liechtenstein not to lose @3/4, Liechtenstein to win @3/1, Under 2.5 goals @1/2 Ordinarily I wouldn't give a game like this any consideration but having a look at the prices, I'm struggling to understand why the hosts are as big as 3/1 to win this one with Moldova favourites at 11/10. Separated by just 4 places in the FIFA world rankings, (124th and 129th respectively) Liechtenstein beat Moldova in the reverse fixture last year and have every chance of scoring a repeat against an opponent that while having a slightly better pedigree, don't look to be significantly stronger, on paper at least. The hosts have held Latvia, Slovakia and Montenegro to draws in this and their most recent qualifying campaigns and I think they can take something again here against a side that rarely win on the road. Indeed Moldova have just 6 away wins in 50 competitive internationals in the last 20 years against San Marino twice, Malta, Georgia and the more impressive scalps of Montenegro and Bosnia but still, you would hardly have confidence in backing them as favourites although they are usually gritty and they did manage to draw in Russia in their most recent qualifier. The hosts themselves have managed 3 draws in their last 5 home qualifiers, holding Latvia, Slovakia and Montengro so I believe they have enough about them to get something here in a match-up between 2 very weak sides. Goals should be scarce and the 1/2 on under 2.5 goals is short but looks highly likely. I picked the Faroes to win yesterday at 8/1 and while a home wouldn't be quite so surprising, at 3/1 the odds are big and you can play it safe by backing the hosts on the double chance to win or draw @3/4. 18:00 Russia vs Austria - Prediction 1.1- Best Bets - BTTS @11/1, Draw @12/5 Russia really need to win here against surprise group leaders Austria who arrive in Moscow with a 5 point advantage over the hosts who sit 3rd, 1 point back from 2nd placed Sweden who face Montenegro later in the evening. Austria won the reverse fixture 1.0 in Vienna last November and they will be full of optimism given their 4 point advantage at the top and while the urgency lies with Russia, I'm not sure you can trust the hosts to win @6/5 odds. The visitors are a vastly improved team and their form in this group has been mightily impressive with wins over Russia and Montenegro surprising most. They have lost just once in their last 12 fixtures (a friendly defeat to Brazil) and they know their way to goal as well, having scored in each of their last 14 fixtures. I don't expect a lot of goals, but i do fancy BTTS at attractive 11/10 odds. Russia need to win here and I expect an attacking approach from the hosts and with Austria's form and their ability to score (15 in their last 7 away games) we could see a decent enough encounter with Austria perhaps doing enough to earn a draw. 20:45 Sweden vs Montenegro - Prediction 2.0 - Best Bets - Zlatan to score anytime @4/5, to score 2 or more @7/2 Sweden come into this tie with a 1 point advantage on 3rd placed Russia and they will expect to collect the points against a goal shy Montenegro who have scored just 1 goal in their last 4 qualifiers and sit 4 points behind their opponents. The hosts are 1/2 to win on the night and if they do win, you can be almost certain that it will be Ibra that finds the net for the hosts with the legendary striker scoring 54 goals in his International career, with 26 goals in his last 26 caps, including 18 in the last 2 and a half years alone. What a record. Truly a legendary player, at 33 his best days may be behind him but the goal-scoring certainly isn't with 30 in the last season for PSG, and I expect further goals today for the big man. Recent form suggests the home win with Sweden winning 4 of their last 6 at home while Montenegro have lost 4 of their last 6 away games and while their won't be much between the two sides, I expect the class of Zlatan to prove the difference. Copa America 2100 - Colombia v Venezeula - Prediction 3.1- Best Bets - BTTS @6/5, Colombia to win @4/9, Colombia to win and over 2.5 goals @7/5 Colombia are strong favourites to win here and deservedly so given their form of the last 2 years which has seen them win 12 of their last 14 games, losing twice only to Brazil and they should have too much here for a Venezuela side that are no longer the whipping boys they once were. In fact Venezuela have a good recent record over Colombia, winning 3 of the last 5 meetings, losing only once, so there is definite history to consider when backing the Colombians at a short price. Of course this is a stronger Colombia than we've seen for a number of years and they are rightly one of the favourites for this year's tournament. BTTS is big at 6/5 which is mostly down to Colombia's excellent defensive record which has seen them record 5 clean sheets from their last 7 but Venezuela are no mugs and are decent going forward. they have won 3 of their last 4 fixtures, and have scored in 9 of their last 11 Internationals so for me, they could get on the score sheet tonight. I expect Colombia will have too much quality in the end, but goals could be on the cards so I will consider BTTS @6/5 as well as Colombia to win and over 2.5 goals @7/5. 2330 - Brazil v Peru - Prediction 2.0- Best Bets - Firmino to score anytime @8/5, Brazil to win to nil @21/20. Brazil have won each of their last 10 fixtures, keeping clean sheets in 8 of them since that remarkable debacle of last year's World Cup and they shouldn't have too much trouble in getting past an average and inconsistent Peru. Under the pragmatic Dunga, Brazil are forming a solid base to progress from with defensive stability vital to their chances of success and I expect another clean sheet along with a win for the Brazilians here who are spearheaded in attack by my boy Neymar who is just 4/5 to score anytime. For that market I'm looking at Hoffenheim attacker Roberto Firmino who has been in good form since being introduced to this Brazilian side with 2 goals from 2 starts and 2 substitute appearances and I fancy the Bundesliga based man to score anytime @8/5 as well as Brazil to win to nil @21/20. Bo's Best Bets Estonia -2 to beat San Marino @4/5 Ukraine -1 to beat Luxembourg @1/2 Spain -1 to beat Belarus @21/20 Slovenia not to lose v England @10/11 Russia v Austria - BTTS @11/10 Zlatan Ibrahimovic to score anytime @4/5 Alvaro Morata to score anytime @6/5 Liechtenstein not to lose v Moldova @3/4 Slovakia to beat Macedonia @1/3 Brazil to beat Peru to nil @21/20 Roberto Firmino (Brazil) to score anytime @8/5 Switzerland to win to nil @20/21 Bo''s Bold Bets Liechtenstein to beat Moldova @3/1 Colombia to beat Venezuela and over 2.5 goals @7/5 Russia v Austria - Draw @12/5 Slovenia v England - Draw @5/2 Comments are closed.
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