We have some tasty looking ties on Sunday and @bobreaksbookies has covered 4 of them in detail including Lazio's trip to take on Milan as well as the big derby in the south of France as Marseille welcome Monaco to the Veledrome in a crucial fixture in the battle for Champions League positions in Ligue 1. Best Bets will be posted on Saturday morning with selections from both days combined as we search for a big weekend of goals. #BOlieve Serie A
17:00 AC Milan vs Lazio - Prediction 1.2 Current Form * Lazio have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 14 of their last 16 away league matches including 7 of the last 8 * Lazio scored 2 goals or more in 13 of those 16 away matches * 25 goals have been scored in Lazio's last 6 away league matches * Lazio have scored 20 goals in their last 6 league matches * Lazio have scored 28 goals in just 11 away league matches this season * Lazio have scored 2 goals or more in 15 of their last 20 league matches * However, Lazio have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 16 away league matches * Milan have lost 3 of their last 7 home league matches * There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 7 of AC Milan's last 8 home league games * Milan are unbeaten in their last 3 league matches, collecting 7 points in the process Past Meetings * Lazio won 4.1 in the reverse fixture earlier this season * Lazio have not won any of their last 25 away league matches against AC Milan Final Verdict - Lazio too good for Milan Lazio are in great goal-scoring form as they head to the San Siro to take on a Milan side that they have not beaten in Milan in any of their last 25 league meetings. While that is a daunting record for Lazio to overcome, recent form suggests they have every chance of collecting the 3 points here in a fixture that could prove entertaining with Lazio scoring and conceding plenty in their away matches over the course of the last year. I'm backing BTTS and over 2.5 goals @11/10 but Lazio to score 2 or more @11/8 is the more tempting selection, given their highly impressive goal-scoring form on the road and while they have always struggled to beat Milan at the San Siro, the hosts have lost 3 of their last 7 at home and I expect Lazio to score 2 or more @11/8 having done so in 75% of all league matches this season. Milan fixtures at the San Siro this season have not exactly been free-scoring so the BTTS and over 2.5 goals pick is not as solid as you might want, but given the visitors potency in that market, I'll take a chance on that outcome occurring again here with Lazio rarely doing clean-sheets on their travels. With Lazio showing no signs of slowing down in front of goal, scoring 20 in their last 6 in the league, I fancy the visitors to take the points @19/10 but given their own defensive frailties, Milan can score as well to bring up the BTTS and over 2.5 goals selection @6/5 in a fixture that Lazio won 4.1 in Rome back in September. Best Bets BTTS and over 2.5 goals @6/5 - 2.5 stars Lazio to score 2 or more @11/8 - 3 stars Lazio to win @19/10 - 2.5 stars 19:45 Roma vs Sampdoria - Prediction 2.2 Current Form * Sampdoria have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 4 of their last 6 away league matches including each of the last 3 * Sampdoria have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in each of their last 4 away matches (all competitions) * Sampdoria have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 10 league matches * Sampdoria have scored exactly 2 goals in 7 of their last 10 away league matches including 5 of their last 6! * Sampdoria have lost 3.2 in 3 of their last 6 away league matches (at Inter, Napoli and Benevento!) * Sampdoria have scored at least 1 goals in 22 of their last 26 away league matches * Sampdoria have conceded at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 away league matches * Roma have failed to win any of their last 6 matches in all competitions (3 losses and 3 draws) including their last 5 in Serie A * Roma have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 home league matches. 3 of those also went over 2.5 goals * Roma have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 11 league matches * Roma sit 5th in the table, 7 points and 1 place ahead of Sampdoria Past Meetings * Roma scored a 92nd-minute equaliser to claim a 1.1 draw with Samp in Genoa on Wednesday * 5 of the last 6 meetings saw BTTS. 4 of those BTTS matches also went over 2.5 goals * 5 of the last 6 meetings went over 2.5 goals * 4 of the last 5 meetings in Rome went over 2.5 goals Final Verdict - Don't rule out Sampdoria Sampdoria were hugely unfortunate not to claim all 3 points against Roma on Wednesday and by twist of fate, these two sides come face to face again in league action on Sunday with Sampdoria looking to go one better having been denied by a 92nd minute equaliser on Wednesday with El Shaaraway's late goal preventing Sampdoria from closing the gap on Roma to just 4 points. Roma have really gone off the boil with no wins in their last 5 in the league and another fixture with Sampdoria should provide a tough test for the Romans who may well be missing Bosnia forward, Edin Dzeko who is rumoured to be on the verge of a return to the Premier League with Chelsea. Only 7 points separate these two sides and considering Roma's poor form, they seem far too short @2/5 odds to win with Sampdoria so close to claiming all 3 points just a few days previously. Samp not to lose @2/1 is definitely worth considering. Of course, Samp are not the best on the road, losing 5 of their last 7 including 3 of their last 4 but they will surely be optimistic of getting a result here with Roma not winning any of their last 6 matches and without a win at home in their last 3 (in all competitions). Much depends on the team selection and whether leading scoring Dzeko is available for selection but regardless, I certainly fancy BTTS @4/5 odds in a fixture that could also go over 2.5 goals with Sampdoria scoring and conceding plenty on their travels. Over 2.5 goal has occurred in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two sides in Rome. The Genoas have scored 2 goals or more in 5 of their last 6 away league matches and they are huge @3/1 to repeat the feat here while the 2/1 on Samp not to lose also looks rather tasty. BTTS is certainly the safest of my selections but I do fancy Sampdoria to put on a strong showing again and perhaps claim a share of the spoils in what should be a decent contest from the Stadio Olimpico. Best Bets BTTS @4/5 BTTS and over 2.5 goals @6/5 Sampdoria or draw @2/1 Sampdoria to score 2 or more @3/1 15:30 Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05 - Prediction 3.2 Current Form * Leverkusen have seen BTTS in 5 of their last 6 home league matches. 4 of those also went over 2.5 goals * Leverkusen have kept only 4 clean sheets in their last 16 home league matches * Leverkusen have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 7 of their last 11 home league matches * Leverkusen have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in each of their last 3 league matches. 17 goals were scored in those 3 matches * Leverkusen have lost only 1 of their last 14 league matches (against champions Bayern) * Leverkusen have won only 4 of their last 15 HOME league matches * Mainz have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 6 of their last 7 league matches * Mainz have seen BTTS in each of their last 5 away league matches. 4 of those games also went over 2.5 goals * Mainz have won only 1 of their last 23 away league matches. Mainz lost 15 of those 23 matches * Mainz conceded 2 goals or more in 15 of their last 22 away league matches, including each of their last 4 * Mainz have scored 2 goals or more in 4 of their last 5 league matches including each of their last 3 away league matches Past Meetings * Mainz have won 3 of their last 4 meetings with Leverkusen. Mainz won all 3 games by more than 1 goal * Mainz scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 4 meetings with Leverkusen * Mainz have lost only 1 of their last 5 trips to Leverkusen * Mainz won 2.0 in last seasons corresponding fixture Final Verdict - Mainz have history... Leverkusen are short favourites at just 2/5 to see off relegation-threatened Mainz but this match could be closer than the bookies expect with Mainz boasting an excellent recent record against a Leverkusen side that still don't entirely convince @bobreaksbookies. While you would expect the home side to have too much for the visitors here, Mainz come to the Bay Arena having won each of their last 3 meetings with Leverkusen, and that alone should give them some optimism despite their rotten away record in the Bundesliga over the last 12 months. Still, Mainz have scored at least 2 goals in their last 3 away league matches and while Leverkusen have certainly improved this season, leading them into a share of 2nd place, they are still a notoriously inconsistent side and their defensive problems are still evident with 7 goals conceded in their last 3 league matches. Indeed, 2nd place seems pretty good on paper, only 1 point separates Leverkusen and Frankfurt in 7th place while Leverkusen are a huge 16 points behind runaway leaders Bayern and are actually closer to Mainz, who are only 11 points behind their opponents today, despite their lowly position of 15th in the table. Clearly without Bayern, this would be an incredibly competitive league and Mainz themselves should not be under-estimated in this one. I expect a home win but I wouldn't bank on it with Leverkusen only winning 4 of their last 16 on home soil but there should be goals so I'm taking BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21 odds and might have a pop on Mainz to score 2 or more at big 11/4 odds. Having managed that trick in their last 3 away league matches, and in 3 of their last 4 meetings with Leverkusen, they could well repeat the feat here although I wouldn't be betting the house on that one. Best Bets BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21 - 3.5 stars Mainz to score 2 or more @11/4 - 1 star 20:00 Marseille vs Monaco - Prediction 2.2 Current Form * Marseille have won their last 5 home league matches * However, none of those wins came against a side in the top half of the division * Marseille have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 7 home league matches * Marseille have scored at least 2 goals in 6 of their last 7 home league matches * Marseille have lost only 1 of their last 17 league matches * Monaco have seen over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of their last 6 league games * Monaco are undefeated in their last 7 league matches, winning 5 and drawing 2 * Monaco have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 league matches Past Meetings * Each of the last 7 meetings between these two sides saw Over 2.5 goals scored * 6 of those matches also saw BTTS * A whopping 35 goals were scored in those 7 matches * Monaco have won their last 5 matches against Marseille * Monaco won 6.1 in the reverse fixture in Monaco back in August while they won 4.3 in the CDF and 4.1 in the league on their 2 previous trips to Marseille in 2017 * 12 of the last 15 meetings have gone over 2.5 goals * Monaco have won 8 of the last 10 meetings with Marseille including each of the last 5 (1 AET) * Monaco scored at least 4 goals in all 4 of those recent wins over Marseille * Monaco scored 2 goals or more in 6 of there last 8 away matches at Marseille Final Verdict - Game of the day We should be in for a cracking contest on the south of France this Sunday evening as 3rd placed Marseille host local rivals Monaco in what is sure to be a crucial fixture in the race for 2nd place in Ligue 1 with just 2 points separating 2nd placed Lyon and 4th placed Monaco. The hosts have a slender 1 point advantage on their local rivals but their recent form against Monaco would certainly make me very wary of backing a home win @5/6 odds. Indeed, Monaco have won each of their last 5 meetings with Marseille, scoring a staggering 19 goals in their 3 most recent victories and while they aren't the same side of last season, the Monte Carlo millionaires are in decent form, unbeaten in 7 and with such a good recent record over Marseille, will be confident of getting at least a point from the Velodrome. This fixture has gone over 2.5 goals in each of the last 7 contests and a repeat here seems likely with both sides in good goal-scoring form. Over 2.5 goals is fair @4/6 while BTTS @8/13 looks strong as well. The combination pays at 20/21 and has to have every chance considering the recent form as well as those past meetings. 25 goals have been scored in the last 5 league meetings between these two sides with Monaco winning 4 and drawing 1 of those matches and while Marseille are the favourites, I'm backing Monaco not to lose @1/1 in a game that looks sure to produce plenty of action at both ends. With Monaco winning 6.1 and 4.1 in their last 2 Ligue 1 meetings with Marseille, you would have to say they are over-priced at 16/5 to claim the points and 1/1 not to lose. Ultimately, I expect goals at both ends, over 2.5 goals, and Monaco not to lose in what should prove to be a thrilling derby in front of an expectant and passionate home support. Best Bets BTTS @8/13 - 4 stars Over 2.5 goals @4/6 - 3.5 stars BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21 - 3 stars Monaco to score 2 goals or more @7/4 - 2 stars Monaco or draw @1/1 - 2.5 stars Comments are closed.
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