Saturday's card is certainly a tough one and with stats and form still in development, I will once again be suggesting small stakes as we look to find some winners from across the major leagues in Europe. I've landed a couple of small stakes winners during the week at 40/1 and 18/1 so the confidence is beginning to flow @bobreaksbookies but with the caveat being that the season is still young and we must be patient in these opening weeks of the season. I've focused on 3 matches today with my attention turning to the Premier League with Liverpool hosting Burnley and Spurs hosting Swansea in the 5.30 tea time kick-off. Elsewhere, Mainz visit Bayern in the Bundesliga while I've highlighted a few more selections from some of the other fixture on offer today. Here then are your Saturday Best Bets as well as an early selection for Sunday where I expect Arsenal to be blown away by a superior Chelsea side. I will look to analyse that game in more detail should I have enough time for a Sunday preview. #BOlieve Premier League 15:00 Liverpool vs Burnley - Prediction 2.1 Best Bets - Burnley plus 2 AH to win @1.675 (4/6), BTTS @1/1 Key Facts * Burnley have lost by more than 1 goal in only 1 of their last 15 Premier League AWAY fixtures (3.1 at Everton in April) * Burnley have only lost 1 of their last 7 away Premier League fixtures * Burnley have remarkably collected 4 points from their opening 2 away PL fixtures, against last seasons top 2 in the division (Chelsea and Spurs) * Burnley have seen BTTS in 11 of their last 14 away PL fixtures * Burnley have scored in 12 of their last 14 away PL fixtures * Burnley are missing key goalkeeper Tom Heaton through injury. Nick Pope will deputize * Liverpool have kept clean sheets in their last 4 home PL fixtures (2 so far in this campaign) They had seen BTTS in 8 of their previous 9 at Anfield in the PL * Liverpool have though only kept 2 clean sheets in 7 competitive fixtures so far this season * Liverpool have conceded 7 goals in the past week, a 5.0 thrashing at Man City followed by a 2.2 draw with Sevilla at Anfield in the CL * Liverpool won 2.1 in last season's corresponding fixture * Liverpool are missing key man Sadio Mane. Liverpool have won only 5 of the 12 PL games that Mane has missed in the last 13 months * Liverpool lost 2.0 at Burnley in their most recent meeting. Mane also missed that match Final Verdict There are some really positive stats on show here that suggest Burnley can run Liverpool close and I'm banking on the visitors scoring and not losing by more than 1 in a potentially tough fixture for Jurgen Klopps impressive side. One worry for Burnley is the absence of England reserve keeper Tom Heaton but with Liverpool missing the influential Sadio Mane, I expect Burnley to make life tough for a Liverpool team that must be feeling somewhat mentally drained after their comprehensive loss at Man City, and their subsequent draw with Sevilla in the Champions League on Wednesday (having missed a penalty when leading 2.1) and I feel they may struggle to carve open a Burnley side that has seldom suffered anything like a heavy loss on the road in the last year. Of course Liverpool have added the dangerous Mo Salah in attack and they did smash Arsenal 4.0 in their last home PL fixture, but Burnley are a sturdier team than the Gunners these days and even without their first choice keeper in nets, I fancy they can really make life difficult for Liverpool with Sean Dyche always getting an organised performance out of his team and there can be no doubt they will do their absolute best to stifle the attacking intent of a Klopp side that loves to go for the throat. Mane's absence may make that objective somewhat trickier. Burnley have added goals to their away repertoire, scoring in 12 of their last 14 on the road, while they have only conceded 3 goals on 2 occasions in their last 16 on their travels. I fancy the Clarets to score and hold Liverpool to a narrow defeat at worst so I will be taking 1/1 on BTTS and trying Burnley plus 2 AH at 4/6. Money back if they lose by more than 1 goal. _______________________________________________________________________________________ 17:30 Tottenham vs Swansea - Prediction - 3.0 Best Bets -Spurs to score 3 or more @10/11, Spurs -1 to win @4/7, Over 2.5 goals @8/15, Eriksen to score anytime @13/10 Key Facts * Each of the last 7 meetings between these two sides has seen over 2.5 goals scored. 6 of those also saw BTTS * Spurs have scored 2 goals or more in all 7 fixtures, with 3 or more in 3 of the last 5 * Spurs also managed to win 6 of those 7 meetings, with Swansea registering only a draw * Christian Eriksen has scored 6 goals in his last 6 appearances against Swansea. Final Verdict Spurs have a great record over Swansea and considering their recent form, I expect them to continue that pattern here and I'm backing them to score 3 or more @10/11 odds with Harry Kane beginning to find his feet again following another goalless August. Swansea have failed to score in 3 of their 4 PL fixtures so far this season and while they have managed to score against Spurs in 6 of their last 7 meetings, they have certainly lost a huge amount of firepower with the loss of Sigurdsson and Llorente and I can't see them scoring here in what should be a comfortable home win for a really impressive Spurs team. Spurs were excellent in their midweek win over Dortmund and while they are still adjusting to their new Wembley surroundings, I fancy them to really do a number on the Swans here so I'm backing them to score 3 or more @10/11 and to win with something to spare @4/7 on the -1 handicap. While Swansea will certainly not line up in the kamikaze style that Dortmund did, I still expect spurs to be too good here and if recent meetings between these two sides are anything to go on, we should go over 2.5 goals @8/15 with each of the last 7 between these two sides following that pattern. One more pick here is in the anytime scorer market with Christian Eriksen holding a tremendous record against Swansea with 6 in his last 6 against the Swans so he must be worth a flutter at 13/10 to score. Spurs -1 is the best bet here but I do fancy them to get 3 or more as well with Christian Eriksen the value in the anytime scorer market. ________________________________________________________________________________________ Bundesliga 14:30 Bayern Munich vs Mainz 05 - Prediction - 3.1 Best Bets - Mainz to score @10/11, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/4 Key Facts * Bayern have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 4 of their last 5 home Bundesliga fixtures * Bayern have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 5 Bundesliga fixtures * Mainz are unbeaten in their last 2 away league fixtures against Bayern, winning 2.1 in 2016 and drawing 2.2 earlier this year. * Mainz have scored in 4 of their last 5 away meetings at Bayern * Mainz recorded a fine 3.1 win over Leverkusen in their most recent Bundesliga fixture * Mainz have failed to score in their last 3 away Bundesliga fixtures * Bayern have seen over 2.5 goals scored in 19 of their last 22 matches against Mainz in all competitions. Final Verdict Mainz are well priced to score here, given their recent performances against the Bundesliga kings although their recent away league form does explain the 10/11 price on a Mainz goal but with the hosts not yet firing on all cylinders, Mainz can score and that's my best bet at 10/1. It is a fixture that Bayern usually win so BTTS and over 2.5 goals also seems quite possible at 5/4 with the over 2.5 goals pick safer, but much shorter at just 4/11. Bayern should certainly claim the points but Mainz will take confidence from their win over Leverkusen last week, and indeed their last two trips to Munich and I can see them scoring and making it a trickier day for the champions than they might expect. _______________________________________________________________________________________ Saturday Best Bets Liverpool v Burnley - BTTS @1/1 - NAP Burnley plus 2 AH to beat Liverpool @4/6 Spurs to score 2 or more @1/3 - NB DOUBLE Spurs to score 3 or more @10/11 Bayern v Mainz - Mainz to score @10/11 Spurs -1 to win @4/7 Bayern v Mainz - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/4 Spurs v Swansea - Eriksen to score anytime @13/10 Sunday Early Bird Best Bet Chelsea to beat Arsenal @4/5 Pocket Change Tips Newcastle v Stoke - Draw Huddersfield v Leicester -BTTS Ipswich to beat Bolton @19/20 Forest vs Wolves - BTTS @4/5 RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Borussia M.Gladbach - BTTS @4/6 Comments are closed.
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