I've picked out five fixtures from across Europe today with two from the Bundesliga, two from the Eredivisie and one from Serie A catching my eye as I continue my search for goals. The irrepressible Bayern Munich welcome BTTS kings Stuttgart to the Allianz in a game that looks likely to produce plenty of goals while I fancy a bit of an upset as Mainz entertain Wolfsburg in the second of the Bundesliga fixtures I've picked out from the five on offer. Here are my "Key Facts" and "Suggested Bets" for the best of the action across Europe today. Bundesliga
14:30 Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart - Prediction - 6.2 - Suggested Bets - Over 3.5 goals @4/7. Bayern to score 4 or more @1/1, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @11/10 Key Facts * Bayern have scored 34 goals in 8 successive home wins in all competitions this season with 24 in their last 5 alone * Bayern have won their last 9 home fixtures in all competitions * Bayern have put 5 past Dortmund, Wolfsburg, Dinamo Zagreb and Arsenal in the last 6 weeks * Bayern have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 6 home fixtures * Bayern have beaten Stuttgart in each of their last 13 meetings * Bayern scored 2 or more in 12 of those wins. They scored 6 on 2 occasions and 5 in another. * Stuttgart have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 9 successive away Bundesliga fixtures * 6 of those 9 fixtures also went over 3.5 (three) goals * There have been 42 goals scored in Stuttgart's those 9 away Bundesliga fixtures * Stuttgart conceded 25 in those 9 away games. * Stuttgart have scored in 17 of their last 20 away Bundesliga fixtures but not in their last 2 visits to Munich * Stuttgart have scored 2 goals or more in 6 of their last 7 away Bundesliga fixtures Final Verdict - Lots of goals and a home hammering on the cards Bayern are in irresistible form right now, scoring 24 in just 5 home fixtures and there's no reason why the pattern won't continue here, especially with the visit of a Stuttgart side that are always involved in high scoring fixtures, particularly on the road. Stuttgart are capable of scoring, but their defensive record is quite appalling, averaging almost 3 against in their last 9 on the road and I expect Bayern to get at least 4 here and possibly more with the visitors just so poor defensively. The visitors do have enough in their attack to perhaps nick one as 4 of Bayern's last 6 opponents have done at the Allianz which could bring up the BTTS and over 2.5 goals selection @11/10. Over 3.5 goals is short @4/7 but it looks pretty likely all things considered and I'm trying BTTS and over 2.5 @11/0 as well and Bayern to score 4 or more @1/1. It seems short but they've done it in their last 5 against better opponents than Stuttgart and with the visitors having no option but to defend, I don't expect them to keep this respectable. Stuttgart are very much a team that rely on their goal-scoring abilities and I doubt they will be sufficiently organised to restrict Bayern to anything under 4 with defending really not something they have in their armory. I have a feeling we might just see a spectacular spanking here and I'm going for a 6.2 win as a bit of a bonkers prediction @ 50/1 while over 5.5 match goals @11/4 has to have a chance as well if Bayern and Lewandowski bring their shooting boots but the visitors do usually score on the road and with Bayern so attack minded and still somewhat complacent defensively at times, BTTS is possible. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 14:30 Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg - Prediction -2.1 - Suggested Bets - BTTS @4/7, Mainz to win @23/10 Key Facts * Mainz have seen 8 of their last 10 Bundesliga fixtures go over 2.5 goals including 4 out of 5 at home * 6 of their last 10 have also seen BTTS * Mainz have lost 6 of their last 10 home Bundesliga fixtures including each of the last 3 against Bayen, Dortmund and Werder Bremen * Mainz sit 12th (out of 18) in the table with 13 points from 11 fixtures this season * Mainz have drawn only 1 of their last 18 Bundesliga fixtures with 7 wins and 9 defeats in that period * Mainz have scored 7 goals in their last 4 league fixtures * Mainz have only picked up 4 points from their last 6 league fixtures * Mainz drew 3.3 at Augsburg in their most recent league fixtures * Wolfsburg aren't in the best form with 5 defeats in their last 10 while they have lost 4 of their last 5 away fixtures in all competitions including a 2.0 defeat to PSV in their most recent fixture * Indeed Wolfsburg have only won 2 of their last 9 away fixtures in all competitions * Wolfsburg conceded 2 goals or more in all 4 of those fixtures * Wolfsburg have not won any of their last 4 trips to Mainz Final Verdict Wolfsburg are in pretty poor form right now, especially on the road and I feel Mainz are a big price @23/10 to claim the win even if they have lost their last three on their own patch, Mainz don't tend to do draws so the feeling here is that someone will win and given Wolfsburg's midweek exertions in Holland, it wouldn't surprise me to see the hosts claim the points here. BTTS is more of a "gut instinct" selection, rather than one that is backed up by spectacular stats and for that reason, both of these selections will be in my "pocket change bets only but both sides are leaky at the back and the bookies fancy it as well, prcing BTTS @8/13 so I'll take that while the home side can surprise their inconsistent visitors to claim all 3 points. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Eredivisie 17:30 Twente vs Heerenveen - Prediction - 2.1 - Suggested Bets - BTTS @8/15, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/6 Key Facts * Both sides are struggling near the foot of the table shipping goals by the bucket load this season with Twente conceding 22 and Heerenveen 18 from just 11 fixtures so far. * Twente have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 4 out of 5 home league fixtures this season and in 9 of their 12 most recent Eredivisie fixtures * 5 of their last 7 fixtures have also seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals * Twente have scored in 18 of their last 20 home league fixtures * Twente have won 2 of their last 3 at home having failed to win any of their first 6 league fixtures and sit 4th bottom with 9 points from 11 fixtures * There have been 17 goals scored in Twente's last 5 fixtures with Twente conceding 10 and scoring 7 * Heerenveen have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 10 away league fixtures * Heerenveen drew their last away fixture 2.2 at Willem ii * Heerenveen have failed to win any of their last 9 away league fixtures and only 1 of their 10 most recent Eredivisie fixtures. * That win came in Heerenveen's most recent fixture, a 2.0 home win over Cambuur * Heerenveen have conceded 2 goals or more in 6 of their last 7 away league fixtures * Heereveen have 11 points so far and sit 1 position and 2 points above their opponents today * Twente have won by 2 goals in each of their last 3 meetings with Heerenveen Final Verdict Goals are likely in this fixture and I'm taking BTTS @8/15 with both sides shipping plenty of goals lately and I expect more than 2.5 goals as well with Heerenveen conceding 2 or more in all but 1 of their last 7 away fixtures. BTTS and over 2.5 goals is short @5/6 but seems pretty likely considering both sides lack of defensive ability this season. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ 19:45 PEC Zwolle vs Heracles - Prediction - 1.2 - Suggested Bets - BTTS @8/15, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/6 Key Facts * PEC have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 home league fixtures * PEC have seen BTTS in 9 of their last 12 home league fixtures * PEC have scored in 24 of their last 25 home league fixtures * PEC have only kept 3 clean sheets in their last 13 home league fixtures * PEC have lost 4 of their last 15 at home including their last 2 * PEC have lost 4 of their last 5 league fixtures but still sit 7th with 17 points * PEC's last 8 home league fixtures have all gone over 2.5 goals * Heracles have seen BTTS in 6 of their last 9 away Eredivisie fixtures including 3 of their last 5 * Heracles have won 8 out of 11 league fixtures this season * Heracles have not drawn any of their last 19 Eredivisie fixtures * Heracles have won 6 of their last 9 away league fixtures * Heracles have scored in 11 of their last 12 league fixtures * Heracles have scored in 26 of their last 32 away league fixtures * 6 of PEC's last 9 away league fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals * PEC won last season's corresponding fixture 4.2 * 7 of the last 9 meetings between these two sides have seen BTTS * 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two sides at Zwolle have seen BTTS Final Verdict - Goals likely in Zwolle Heracles are having a tremendous season and they can probably win here against a struggling PEC but goals as ever are my preferred option and this fixture looks as likely as any this weekend to produce both BTTS and over 2.5 goals and I'll be on both of these selections despite the short prices on offer. I always pick my bets based on stats and not the price. Generally speaking, I'm very rarely surprised by a price and the bookies know what they are doing in this respct. I can predict almost all of the goal market prices on these fixtures and rarely am I put off by the price because for me, I'm chasing the result, not the odds and for that reason, I have no problem backing the selection, as long as it stands up to my statistical analysis. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Serie A 18:00 Verona vs Bolonga - Prediction - 1.1 - Suggested Bets - BTTS @10/11, Draw @12/5 Key Facts * Verona have drawn 9 of their last 15 league fixtures including 4 of their last 6 at home against heavyweight's Juventus and Roma as well as Torino and Udinese * Verona have won only 1 of their last 17 Serie A fixtures with 6 draws and 5 defeats from their first 11 fixtures this season * Verona have scored 2 or more in 6 of their last 12 home league fixtures * However they have failed to score in their last two league fixtures * Verona have seen BTTS in 6 of their last 7 home league fixtures * Verona have scored in 24 of their last 28 home league fixtures with 19 of those seeing BTTS * Verona have just 1 clean sheet in 14 home league fixtures and only 1 in their 17 most recent league fixtures * Verona have yet to win this season, drawing 6 and losing 5 fixtures * Bologna have seen BTTS in 3 out of 5 away league fixtures this season * Bologna have won 2 of their last 3 league fixtures having lost 7 of the first 8 league fixtures this season * Bologna have had a tough start to the season with 4 successive away defeats at Lazio, Sampdorida, Fiorentina and Juventus followed by their first win at Carpi Final Verdict - Small stakes on BTTS and a draw here BTTS looks overpriced at 10/11 and while Serie A humiliated me last week with my BTTS picks, I'm trying this one on one of my smaller stakes lines. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Euro Suggested Bets Bayern Munich vs VfB Stuttgart - Over 3.5 goals @4/7 Bayern Munich vs VFB Stuttgart - Bayern to score 4 or more @1/1 Bayern Munich vs VFB Stuttgart - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @11/10 Mainz 05 vs Wolfsburg - BTTS @ 4/7 Mainz vs Wolfsburg - Mainz to win @23/10 Twente vs Heerenveen - BTTS @8/15 Twente vs Heereveen - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/6 PEC Zwolle vs Heracles - BTTS @8/15 PEC Zwolle vs Heracles - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/6 Verona vs Bolonga - BTTS @10/11 Comments are closed.
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