It's our last big weekend of league football and we still have lots of action to enjoy today with the concluding matches in the Bundesliga and La Liga as well as a crucial 2nd leg play-off fixture between Hibs and Rangers and a couple of evening games from Serie A. Here are Saturday's previews, predictions and best bets for the action in Germany, Italy and Scotland. I will post a separate preview for La Liga. SPFL Play-offs
1300 Hibs V Rangers - Prediction - 1.0 - Best Bets - No bet Rangers scored a tremendous 2.0 victory over Hibs on Wednesday that puts them withing touching distance of next week's final with Motherwell. Hibs are a fine little team with good movement and passing but they will need something special here if they are to turn this tie around. Away goals are not active in this contest so a 2 goal win for Hibs will be enough to force extra-time but I don't think they'll manage it on the day. I'm not going to bet on Rangers fixtures anymore as I seem to have too much emotion and negativity towards them which doesn't allow me to have a clear focus on the outcome. I do fancy the Gers to get the job done in a low scoring tight affair. Hibs might score 1 but for me, there won't be any bets on this one. Bundesliga 15:30 Bayern Munich vs Mainz 05 - Prediction - 2.0 Best Bets - No bet I tipped up Freiburg to beat Bayern last week at 6/1 and if you fancy another defeat for the champions you can back Mainz at silly odds of 12/1. Worth a punt? You wouldn't expect Bayern to lose again but it wouldn't be the biggest shock in the world. Still, I'm not putting this fixture in my best bets for today. 15:30 Borussia Dortmund vsn Werder Bremen - Prediction - 2.1 Best Bets - Bremen to score @8/13, Dortmund to win and BTTS @6/5 It's tough to make a case for BTTS when Dortmund are playing at home with only 4 of their 16 matches at the Westfallen delivering, but when the opponents are Werder Bremen, we can assume it has a good chance. Amazingly, Dortmund are just 2/9 to win despite these two outfits sitting side by side in the league and seperated by goal difference only. Sure Dortmund should be better than 7th but I can seldom remember a team being so heavily fancied to win a home game despite their opponents being level on points. Dortmund are very strong at home lately though, winning 5 of their last 7 at home, keeping clean sheets in 5 of those fixtures and with this being Jurgen Klopp's final home game in charge, we can expect that Dortmund will want to send him off on a big high and I do expect a home win for Dortmund here even if the price makes it completely unbackable. The better option of course is to look for goals and Werder are the away day kings of BTTS with 13 of their 16 away games in the league resulting in BTTS including 8 of their last 9 and 12 of their last 13 away games in all comps. They almost always score on the road with 14 of their 16 away games seeing them score at least once. It's not a banker with Dortmund strong at home but you have to fancy that goals could be scored here and Dortmund to end up winners in Klopp's final home fixture. 15:30 Borussia M.Gladbach vs Augsburg - Prediction 2.0 Best Bets - Moenchengladbach to win @8/15 I'm confident in a home win for my favourites Moenchengladbach who still have a chance to catch Wolfsburg in 2nd position if results go their way. Borussia are supremely strong on their own turf with 9 successive wins in the league, with 6 clean sheets from their last 7 and they should see off an Augsburg side that aren't so great on the road, losing 5 in a row before their shock win at Bayern 2 weeks ago. If you like betting on teams to win to nil (I don't) then this would be a good opportuning based on the stats and you can get 15/8 on a home win to nil. One negative stat is that Augsburg won last's seasons fixture in Gladbach but I wouldn't let that put you off with this Moenchengladbach outfit as strong as it has been in a number of years. I'll be backing the home win in my best bets for today and I expect the 8/15 price to tumble as we approach kick-off. 15:30 Hoffenheim vs Hertha Berlin - Prediction 1.0 - Best Bets - No bet Hoffenheim were in great form at home with 7 wins from 10 league games before a run of 3 games against Bayern, Moenchengladbach and then Dortmund brought them 2 defeats and a draw but I expect them to get a final home win against an average Hertha side who could still use a point to be entirely safe from relegation. Hertha aren't great but they have avoided defeat in 4 of their last 7 away games and while I expect a home win, Hoffenheim have little to play for, so I'm NOT going to back them @19/20 to win in my best bets. 15:30 Hannover 96 vs Freiburg - Prediction - 1.1 - Best Bets - No bet This is one of the big relegation clashes in Germany today as 14th placed Freiburg travel to 15th placed Hannover knowing that either side could yet finish in the relegation zone. It could hardly be tighter at the bottom of the Bundesliga with just 4 points separating 13th placed Hertha and bottom side Paderborn. 6 teams are still in big trouble going into the last day. Hannover started the season well at home with 4 wins from their first 5 but have won just once more in their following 11 home games, drawing 4 and losing 6. BTTS is a popular selection when Hannover play at home with 10 of their last 11 games on their own patch seeing BTTS but I'm not banking on it here with Freiburg only scoring in 3 of their last 8 fixtures on the road although they did manage it in their last 2 fixtures, both of which saw BTTS. I do think this one is likely to finish all square with but much depends on other results and while a draw might be enough for both sides to escape, it's too tough to call and I'm not confident enough to back BTTS or the draw. 15:30 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen - Prediction v 2.2 - Best Bets - BTTS @ 8/13 Neither side have anything to play for with Frankfurt safe in mid-table and Leverkusen certain to finish 4th so immediately we can rule out picking a winner in this type of fixture. Frankfurt are pretty good at home, winning 4 of their last 6 whilst remaining unbeaten in 10 while BTTS has appeared in 6 of their last 9 home fixtures while they also managed to score in 9 of their last 10 home games and scoring 2 or more in 7 of those which would indicate that we can expect the home side to score here. Leverkusen tend to score when they travel having scored in 8 of their last 9 fixtures away while BTTS occurred in 4 of their previous 7 away days. With nothing to play for, I'm not banking on BTTS here but I fancy it has a chance. 15:30 Hamburger SV vs Schalke 04 - Prediction - 2.0 Best Bets - Hamburg to win @11/8 I really fancy a home win for relegation threatened Hamburg here against aSchalke side who have little to play for here and have failed to win any of their last 8 fixtures in the league and also failed to score in 5 of their last 7 away matches in the Bundesliga. Under Roberto Di Matteo, things are not going well for Schalke who took the unusual step of suspending KP Boateng and Sidnei Sam for basically being rubbish and it seems that big changes will take place in the summer for a side that have won just 1 game away from home this year although remarkably that win did come at the Bernabeu against Real Madrid in the Champions League. Today is all about relegation though and Hamburg have to win if they are to have any chance of avoiding the drop and will take confidence having collected 7 points from a possible 12 although with just 1 win in 6 home games, you can hardly rely on this team for a win. But I do fancy this great name of German football to get a result here and I may back them to win at the attactive price of 11/8. Against a side with little to play for, that looks like value to me and I just have a feeling that this once great, former champion of Europe will live to fight another day. 15:30 FC Cologne vs Wolfsburg - Prediction - 1.2 Best Bets - BTTS @8/15, Wolfsburg to win @10/11 Wolfsburg travel to Cologne knowing that a win will secure 2nd position in the table and with it direct entry into next season's Champions League. Cologne are safe in mid-table and have found some good form at the end of the season, winning 3 of their last 5 at home having previously only won 1 in 10 home fixtures and having scored 11 goals in 5 games, they will be confident of getting a positive result against the league's 2nd best side. BTTS looks possible with Cologne having seen BTTS in 5 of their last 6 at home while visitors Wolfsburg also feature frequently in this market with 7 of their last 10 on the road following the pattern. Wolfsburg have won 4 of their last 7 away games and they have scored in 13 out of 16 away games this season, scoring 32 goals in the process and can generally be relied upon to both score and concede goals, especially in away games. I expect an away win for Wolfsburg @ 10/11 who need the points to hold on to 2nd position, while BTTS looks probable @ 8/15 odds. 15:30 Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart - Prediction 2.3 Best Bets - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @4/6 Bottom of the table Paderborn take on 3rd bottom Stuttgart in another crucial final day showdown in the battle to avoid relegation with both sides in big trouble. Paderborn have to win this fixture and hope that Hamburg don;t if they are going to escape the bottom 2 and that could prove tricky when you look at their recent form and home form this season. Just 1 win from 10 at home looks ominous for a side that have struggled badly in the 2nd half of the season and who desperately need to win here. Visitors Stuttgart aren't much better though, especially on the road having lost each of their last 4 away fixtures and mustering just 3 away wins all season and they know that if they fail to win here then a Hamburg win will send them down so I expect an attacking approach from both sides. BTTS looks the best bet here with 7 of Paderborn's last 11 at home seeing that outcome, of which 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, while 5 of Stuttgart's last 6 on the road have also seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals. Given both sides desperate nature, I expect a real battle and attacking principles to be in full force here and BTTS and over 2.5 goals seems very likely. I'm not gonna pick a winner but I do fancy goals and the bookies agree with the goals markets as BTTS is priced at just 4/9 but you can take BTTS and over 2.5 goals @4/6 and feel pretty confident that 2 desperate sides will put everything into this one and with neither defense excelling this season, i expect a ding-dong battle. Serie A 18:00 Juventus vs Napoli - Prediction 2.2 Best Bets - BTTS @4/5 Juventus needed extra time to beat Lazio on Wednesday and with the Champions league final on the horizon, you would expect plenty of key players to be rested here following a gruelling 120 minutes in the cauldron that is Lazio's Stadio Olimpico. BTTS is an obvious bet with Juventus last 4 home games all seeing BTTS and with star players rested, Juve won't be at their best but this is still Juve and they don;t lose at home. It's a score draw for me but unlikely to be a best bet. 20:45 Genoa vs Inter - Prediction - 2.1 Best Bets - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @8/11 Genoa are in terrific goal-scoring form and I expect a home win and some goals in this fixture. The home side have scored 15 goals in their last 5 games in the league, and have won each of their last 4 at home, scoring 12 in the process while they have scored 2 or more in 6 of their last 8 league games. Genoa do tend to concede as well with BTTS in 5 of their last 6 games in the league and 7 of their last 10 at home. Inter come into this one with some improved form under Roberto Mancini, winning 5 of their previous 7 on the road including each of their last 3 and have lost just 1 in their last 8 fixtures overall. 6 of their previous 8 on the road have seen BTTS and with both sides in form and scoring goals, I expect we will see a decent encounter here. BTTS is incredibly short at 4/9 (at the time of writing) but I'm pretty confident in BTTS and over 2.5 @8/11. Bo's Best Bets Genoa v Inter - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @8/11 Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @4/6 Dortmund v Werder Bremen - Bremen to score @8/13 Dortmund v Werder Bremen - Dortmund to win and BTTS @6/5 FC Cologne v Wolfsburg - BTTS @8/15 FC Cologne v Wolfsburg - Wolfsburg to win @10/11 Hamburger SV vs Schalke 04 -Hamburg to win @11/8 Borussia M.Gladbach vs Augsburg - Moenchengladbach to win @8/15 Other selections Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen - BTTS @ 8/13 Juventus v Napoli - BTTS @4/5 Hannover v Freiburg - BTTS @8/13 Draws Juventus v Napoli Hannover v Freiburg Comments are closed.
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