Happy new year and all that shite. Welcome back to @bobreaksbookies. After a lengthy week of Christmas and New Year nonsense to get through, it's FA Cup weekend in the UK and given the unpredictable nature of the tournament, I have decided to ignore much of the action there with my highlight from Saturday coming from Spain and San Sebastian as high flying Sociedad take on Sevilla in a match that in recent years has prodoced plenty of goals, which as you know, is what we like @bobreaksbookies.. Still, in the spirit of the season, I've picked out one tie from that classic old competition in England as I look for goals in Bolton as Big Sam Allardyce makes his return with a desperately poor Cyrstal Palace side. Is an upset on the cards? Here are my key facts and best bets for Saturday. 19:45 Real Sociedad vs Sevilla
Prediction 2.1 Key Facts * Sociedad have seen BTTS in each of their last 4 home league fixtures * Sociedad have won 6 of their last 8 home fixtures, scoring 18 goals in the process * Sociead have won 5 of their last 6 home LA LIGA fixtures * Sociedad scored 2 goals or more in 4 of those 6 matches * Sociedad have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6 league fixtures * Sevilla have conceded 2 goals or more in 4 of their last 6 away LA LIGA fixtures. Going back further, they have conceded 2 or more in 10 of their last 16 away league fixtures * Sevilla have seen BTTS in 6 of their last 7 away LA LIGA fixtures * Sevilla have scored 11 goals in their last 5 away league fixtures * Sevilla have won 3 of their last 5 away league fixtures (at Leganes, Deportivo and Celta) having failed to win any of their previous 22 away games in La Liga. Yes, 22 is a lot. * Sevilla have failed to score in only 3 of their last 17 away league fixtures * Sevilla have kept only 2 clean-sheets in their last 11 LA LIGA fixtures * Sevilla have seen over 2.5 goals scored in each of their last 6 LA LIGA fixtures * Sociedad have won each of the last 3 meetings between these two sides, scoring 8 goals in the process. * Going back further, Sociead have won 6 of their last 9 with Sevilla, losing just twice. * Sociedad have won 4 of the last 5 home league fixtures against Sevilla since 2012 * 3 of those 5 fixtures also saw BTTS * Sociedad have scored 2 or more in 5 of their last 6 home league contests with Sevilla Final Verdict This should be an entertaining contest from the Basque country as home favourites Sociedad welcome Sevilla in what looks like the pick of the action from across Europe on Saturday. Sociedad are really strong at home, especially against big name opposition and while Sevilla have picked up 3 wins from their last 5 on the road, their long-term form on their travels leads me to conclude that a home win with goals is the likeliest outcome here. The visitors have certainly picked up in away fixtures, scoring 3 goals in each of those 3 away wins but Sociedad are a strong team, especially in front of their own support and I expect the home side to lead us to our best bets for Saturday. I fancy Sociedad to score 2 or more @10/11 while BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21 looks achievable with Sevilla scoring plenty on the road of late themselves but it is the strength of the home side that leads me to my best selections here. Best Bets Sociedad to score 2 or more @10/11 BTTS and over 2.5 goals @ 20/21 Sociedad to win @5/4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Bolton v Palace Prediction 2.2 Key Facts * Bolton have won 7 in a row at home in the league, 10 in a row in all competitions and sit 2nd in League 1 with only 2 defeats in their last 14 league fixtures. *Bolton have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 home fixtures * Bolton have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 home FA Cup ties * Palace have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures * Palace have not kept a clean-sheet in any of their last 16 away competitive fixtures * Palace have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 8 away fixtures * Palace have won only 2 of their last 21 away league fixtures. Final Verdict An upset could be on the cards here as struggling Crystal Palace travel to high-flying Bolton of League 1 in a contest that looks to have quite a lot of potential for goals. Palace are notoriously weak at the back this season and rarely do clean-sheets on the road and while they will look to tighten up with Sam Allardyce now in charge, I don’t see those improvements happening overnight, as evidenced in a wretched home defeat against Swansea last Tuesday. Palace may make a lot of changes for this one with PL survival the ultimate priority but given Allardyce’s ego, he won’t want to lose at his former team and with this just his 2nd match in charge, I expect a strong Palace team to take the field. Nevertheless, their form has been so poor that nothing can be taken for granted in this match, irrespective of the 11 players selected. Bolton themselves are in terrific form and I expect a good atmosphere in front of a big crowd with the added sub-plot of the return of Allardyce. With not too many obvious stats to compare, and a two division gap separating these two sides, it’s hard to justify the selections but given the nature of this competition, the respective form of the two teams and the fact that we have an ego-driven manager returning to a former club, this could be a bit of a classic and I’m tipping a 2.2 draw so let’s try BTTS @4/5 and BTTS and over 2.5 goals @21/20. Saturday Best Bets Bolton v Palace - BTTS @4/5 Bolton v Palace - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @21/20 Sociedad to score 2 or more @10/11 Sociedad v Sevilla – BTTS and over 2.5 goals @10/11 - NAP Socicead to win @5/4 Comments are closed.
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