We have bets from six games on Saturday with 3 selections from England, 2 from Germany and another from Serie A as the season enters it's final stretch. Here are my in-depth previews with all my usual Key Facts and Best Bets for Saturday. #BOlieve 14:30 Freiburg vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction 2.3 Best Bets – BTTS @4/6, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21 Key Facts
Final Result BTTS @4/6 = Implied Probability of 60% BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21 = Implied Probability of 51% Final Verdict My strongest BTTS tip of the weekend as Dortmund travel to a decent Freiburg side in a fixture that looks ripe for goals with both sides heavily involved in both of my favourite goal markets recently. Dortmund are the stronger team and you would expect them to score against a side that have kept only 1 clean-sheet in their last 7 home league fixtures but given Dortmund’s own vulnerabilities defensively, with just 1 clean-sheet in their last 15 on the road, BTTS starts to look like the obvious call @4/6 odds. Those odds of 4/6 suggest a 60% likelihood of BTTS here and while it is not especially generous, it does look like a solid selection with Freiburg strong at home, winning 8 of their last 11 against a Dortmund side that have seen BTTS in 90% of their last 10 away fixtures. Over 2.5 goals looks likely as well here with both sides scoring and conceding plenty of late. Freiburg have seen each of their last 9 BTTS contests also go over 2.5 goals while Dortmund’s last 8 fixtures on the road have produced 30 goals and I expect more goals here with the visitors probably good enough to edge to the 3 points in what could prove to be something of a thriller. Best Bets – BTTS @4/6, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21 18.30 Watford v West Ham Prediction 1.2 Best Bets - BTTS @3/4, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/4 Key Facts
Final Result BTTS @3/4 = Implied Probability of 57% Final Verdict I’ve been avoiding the PL of late but both of these sides have strong records in the BTTS markets respectively and recent meetings between the two sides would suggest that there is a good chance of BTTS coming up again. Watford have seen BTTS in 75% of home league fixtures this season and West Ham have seen that outcome in 75% of all away matches this season and with an implied probability of 57% attached to the price on offer, I’m taking the value on BTTS here @3/4 odds. This one could also go over 2.5 goals as well and that's worth a shot on a small stakes acca. Best Bets - BTTS @3/4, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/4 Everton vs Sunderland Prediction – 4.1 Best Bets – Everton -1 to win @1/1, Everton to score 2 or more @4/9 and 3 or more @11/8, Lukaku to score anytime @4/6 Key Facts
Final Verdict Everton -1 @1/1 – Implied Probability of 50% Everton to score 2 or more @4/9 = Implied Probability of 69% Final Result It’s hard to see past Everton here and I have a feeling that this could be a particularly unhappy return to Goodison for David Moyes as he takes his struggling Sunderland side to Liverpool to take on an Everton team that have scored 13 goals in their last 3 home victores. The stats on handicap wins and losses for both sides are particularly revealing with Everton winning by more than 1 goal in 75% of their home wins this season (6 from 8) and Sunderland losing by more than 1 goal in 6 of their 8 defeats, again at a 75% ratio. What this tells us is that when Everton win at home, they usually do it by more than 1 goal and given their opponent here, you have to like their chances of covering the handicap at 1/1 odds with recent form and stats suggesting it should be a comfortable win for the hosts against an opponent that conceded 6 goals in their last trip to Goodison. I’m comfortable backing Everton to score 2 or more @4/9 and they have every chance to get 3 or more @11/8 as well but for me, the best value comes with that handicap price and that is my main bet here. Oh, and of course big Rom should get his name on the score-sheet with 6 goals in his last 3 home outings. Best Bets – Everton -1 to win @1/1, Everton to score 2 or more @4/9 and 3 or more @11/8, Lukaku to score anytime @4/6 16:00 WBA V Bournemouth Prediction 2.0 Best Bets – WBA to score 2 or more @1/1, WBA to win @21/20 Key Facts
Final Result WBA to score 2 or more @1/1 = Implied Probability of 50% Wba to win @21/20 – Implied Probability of 49.5% Final Verdict Recent form suggests both of these picks are well over-priced with WBA in great form at home and Bournemouth absolutely rotten on the road. I fully expected to see the Baggies as short as 4/6 here so to see them listed at a shade over evens seems awfully generous considering the visitors defending of late. I The Cherries are leaking goals left, right and centre and with WBA scoring 2 or more in 5 of their last 7, the odds of 1/1 on a repeat here for WBA to score or more seems particularly generous. I also fancy the Baggies to continue their recent winning way at the Hawthorns and I am taking both picks here. Best Bets – WBA to score 2 or more @1/1, WBA to win @21/20 17:00 Napoli vs Atalanta Prediction 1.1 Best Bets – BTTS @3/4 Key Facts
Final Result BTTS @3/4 = Implied Probability of 57% Final Verdict Napoli welcome Serie A surprise package Atalanta who will be full of confidence when they head south to Naples for what is a clash between 3rd and 5th place. Indeed only 6 points separate these two sides and had Atalanta not lost 4 of their first 5 league games, they might well be fighting for more than just a Champions League spot. When we look at the stats, BTTS jumps out as the obvious pick with Napoli almost certain to score at home and Atalanta performing well on the road. Napoli have scored in every home league game bar 1 for the last 2 and a half years so the big question is whether the visitors have what it takes to score themselves. Considering their current form, and the season they are having, it is well within reason for Atalanta to score in this fixture, especially as they have managed that feat in 5 of their last 6 trips to Naples when arguably they had a weaker team. Still, the same might be said for Napoli and they do enter this fixture as big odds on favourite’s @8/15 odds but the visitors have scored in most of their away fixtures this season and I fancy them to do it again here to bring up the BTTS selection @3/4 odds. Those odds suggest a BTTS probability of just 57% but when you consider Napoli’s amazing record of scoring at home (49 of their last 50) and the fact they have only 1 clean-sheet in their last 9, coupled with the excellent form of the visitors who themselves have scored in 82% of all away league fixtures over the past year then their does seem to be value in this selection at 3/4 odds. I’m tempted to tip Atalanta not to lose but BTTS is definitely the safer call and is my only tip for this interesting clash at the top of Serie A. 15:30 Bayer Leverkusen vs Mainz 05 Prediction 2.1 Best Bets - Leverkusen to score 2 or more @4/6, Over 2.5 match goals @4/5 Key Facts
Over 2.5 goals @4/5 = Implied Probability of 55% Leverkusen to score 2 or more @4/6 = Implied probability of 60% Final Result Jekyll and Hyde doesn’t do Leverkusen justice but they should get the job done here and goals should be on the cards. It doesn’t make it into my 3 best bets, but the selections do stand up to my analysis. Bo’s NAP Double 3.5 Points Staked Freiburg v Dortmund – BTTS @ 4/6 Everton v Sunderland – Everton to score 2 goals or more @4/9 Bo’s NB Double 2. Points Staked Watford v West Ham – BTTS @3/4 Napoli v Atalanta – BTTS @3/4 Bo’s Tasty Treble 1 Points Staked Freiburg v Dortmund – BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21 Everton v Sunderland - Everton -1 to win @1/1 WBA to score 2 or more @1/1 Bo's Big 4-fold 0.5 Points Staked Watford v W Ham - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/4 WBA to beat Bournemouth @1/1 Everton to score 3 or more @11/8 Leverkusen v Mainz - Over 2.5 goals @4/5 Comments are closed.
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