After hours of analysis and stats popping out of my ears, I have chosen 4 games for Saturday's best bets with 3 games from the Bundesliga and 1 from La Liga forming the bulk of my selections. I have also included 2 selections from my special preview, included in my weekly newsletter so if you want the stats and info on that pick, you will need to sign-up to that. Details on the home page. Here then are my highly detailed Key Facts for 4 big games on your Saturday. #BOlieve 14:30 Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
Prediction 2.2 Best Bets – BTTS @4/6, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 Key Facts
Final Result (implied probability vs stats) BTTS @4/6 = 60% probability BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 - = 50% Probability Final Verdict Numbers are they key to success and from now on, I will be providing even more analysis in order to understand whether a bet really offers value or not. My method, as you can see from the stats, is to find matches where both teams are prominent in the popular goal markets. Here, for our first match, BTTS is priced @4/6 which gives us an implied probability of 60% for BTTS. In other words, the bookies think this one has a 60% chance of seeing BTTS; The important question though, is whether the odds and the stats weigh-up and whether the price offers value to the likelihood of that outcome. I have highlighted the % result for the important stats (BTTS records for both teams, over 2.5 goals home and away records and past meetings) in my key facts and as we can see, all of them are above that 60% probability that the price of 4/6 suggests. Of course, numbers are not our only determining factor when deciding to make a selection and even when the numbers add up, sometimes the result doesn’t. In this instance, I’m happy to take both picks, particularly given Werder’s form in the markets and Mainz own record of scoring goals at home. Therefor I am confident that both of these selections offer value on the prices offered and for that reason, both selections will be in my final picks for Saturday. Best Bets – BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @4/6, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 14:30 Eintracht Frankfurt vs Ingolstadt Prediction – 2.0 Best Bets – Frankfurt to win @21/20 Key Facts
Final Result (implied probability vs stats) Frankfurt to win @21/20 = 48.8% Implied Probability Final Verdict Given the price here, I am jumping all over a home win with the stats suggesting this one should be much shorter than the generous 21/20 on offer although Frankfurt do have some injury problems to contend with. The visitors do not travel well and given Frankfurt’s home form, and the confidence generated from 2 successive wins that have lifted the hosts to 3rd in the table, I can’t see past a home win here and given the price, this has to be one of my best bets for the weekend. Best Bets – Frankfurt to win @21/20 14:30 Hoffenheim vs Darmstadt Prediction – 3.0 Best Bets – Hoffenheim to score 2 or more @8/15 Key Facts
Final Result (implied probability vs stats) Hoffenheim to score 2 or more @8/15 = Implied Probability of 65% Final Verdict As we can see from the stats, Hoffenheim are a strong home team that have managed to score 2 goals or more in 70% of their home league fixtures this season. In contrast, Darmstadt are the weakest team in the league, conceding 2 or more goals in 70% of their away fixtures this season. When you factor in the most recent home form of the hosts who have managed to score big wins over Koln and Mainz lately with 4 goals scored in both matches, and the terrible away run of the visitors who have lost 9 in a row and conceded 2 or more in 7 of those. Taking that into consideration, I have to fancy Hoffenheim to do the business again here and the price of 8/15 on 2 goals or more looks quite generous to me with implied probability suggesting there is only a 65% chance of that outcome. My stats suggest the likelyood Is a bit greater than that and for that reason, I am taking the hosts to get at least 2 goals in what should be a routine victory. Best Bets - Hoffenheim to score 2 or more @8/15 19:45 Sevilla vs Eibar Prediction 2.1 Best Bets – BTTS @8/11, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21 Key Facts
Final Result Sevilla v Eibar - BTTS @8/11 = Implied Probability of 58% Sevilla v Eibar - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21 = Implied Probability of 52% Final Verdict Despite drawing a blank in their last home game, I am backing Sevilla to return to the BTTS market here with Eibar in excellent form and likely to provide a stern test of Champions League hopefuls Sevilla. The stats presented show that the chances of BTTS are pretty high with both sides averaging at above 70% in the market when playing at home and away respectively. The 4/6 on offer suggests a 60% chance but given the recent numbers, and especially the form of an Eibar side who have risen to their highest ever position of 7th in La Liga. Eibar have scored in 10 of their last 11 on the road and with Sevilla keeping clean-sheets in only 4 of their last 15 at home, I expect this fixture has every chance of seeing BTTS. Recent meetings between the sides have been quite tight with only 1 of the last 5 meetings going over 2.5 goals but both sides show positive numbers in that market this season and Best Bets – BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE @8/11, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 Saturday Best Bets Bo’s NAP – 4 Points staked Frankfurt to beat Ingolstadt @21/20 Bo’s Deadly Double - 2.3 Points Young Boys v St Gallen - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @8/11 (NB) Mainz v Werder Bremen – BTTS @4/6 Bo’s Tasty Treble – 1.2 Points Staked Sevilla v Eibar – BTTS @4/6 Hoffenheim v Darmstadt - Hoffenheim to score 2 or more @8/15 Young Boys v St Gallen - Over 3.5 match goals @1/1 Bo’s 4-FOLD – 0.5 Points Staked Sevilla v Eibar - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 Dortmund BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 Mainz v Werder Bremen – BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 Hamburg vs Freiburg – BTTS @4/5 Full Sunday Preview to follow #BOlieve Comments are closed.
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