It's the last day of 2016 and we have a special festive Saturday of football, kicking off with the friendliest derby of them all as Rangers host Celtic at Ibrox. I've covered that game plus 4 more from the PL in England including a big clash between Liverpool and Man City, as we search for some winners to end the year as we mean to begin the next. It hasn't been the best of years for humanity so let's try to finish it in style with some lovely winners from your favourite football tipster @bobreaksbookies. Fuck off 2016. Welcome 2017 #BOlieve 13.15 - Rangers vs Celtic Prediction - 2.2 Key Facts * Celtic have won 17 out of 18 league fixtures this season, piling up a whopping 52 points * Celtic have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 13 away league fixtures * Rangers have won 5 in a row at home and are unbeaten in all 10 league fixtures this season at Ibrox * The last 2 meetings between these two sides at Ibrox Stadium saw Rangers winning both fixtures, 4.2 and 3.2 * Celtic claimed a 5.1 win in the reverse fixture at Parkhead in October. * This is the first time Rangers have hosted Celtic since 2012. Rangers claimed a memorable 3.2 triumph on that day. Final Verdict Celtic travel to Ibrox for a first away day derby with Rangers since 2012 and with a sizeable 14 point advantage at the top, the bookies have the champions priced at odds on 3/4 to win against their great rivals who sit 2nd, 4 points clear of Aberdeen in this their first season big in the top flight. All things considered, Celtic are the better side but they have only won 1 of their last 8 trips to Ibrox and given that this is the first return to ibrox since Rangers suffered their 2012 liquidation, we can expect a hell of an atmosphere come lunch-time on Saturday. Rangers have improved since their 5.1 mauling at Celtic Park in October and I expect them to put in a much better showing here against a Celtic side that are not quite firing as strongly as they were some weeks earlier. Ok, they have won 13 in a row but the goals are not as free-flowing as they were while defensively, vulnerabilities were certainly on display in their narrow 4.3 win at Motherwell. Meanwhile, Rangers have won 4 of their last 5 and although they were held to a 1.1 at St Johnstone on Wednesday, I fancy a big performance from the blue half of Glasgow in what should be an action-packed and highly intensive fixture with both sides certain to attack. It's hard to justify these selections with stats, given the dominance of Celtic in the division and a relative lack of recent meetings between the two sides but Rangers usually score at home and they should have enough to at least breach a Celtic rear-guard that has not looked perfect in recent weeks, highlighted in that 4.3 win at Motherwell. Rangers @6/5 to avoid defeat and that looks a decent bet with the Ibrox side unbeaten in 10 at home this season (Winning 7) and also losing just 1 of their last 8 home meetings with Celtic since 2008. Rangers have only lost 4 of their last 40 home PL fixtures and while this is probably the toughest one of them all, the Gers do have enough quality to push Celtic hard on their own patch and I can see the home side squeaking a draw in an entertaining contest. Rangers have such a history and such a weight of expectation that anything less than a win will be regarded as a failure and while they might fall short, I feel they will raise their game and push Celtic all the way and for that reason, goals have to be the way to go though, with BTTS @4/6 and I'm taking that with quite a lot of confidence and I can also see this one going over 2.5 goals and that double pays @21/20. Don't rule out a narrow away win or a thrilling 2.2 draw in a fixture that has on so many occasions, produced a special contest and I have a feeling something similar could be on the cards here. Best Bets BTTS @4/6 BTTS and over 2.5 goals @21/20 Rangers not to lose @6/5 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 15:00 - Leicester vs West Ham Prediction 2.2 Key Facts * Leicester have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 10 PL fixtures. 7 of those 8 also went over 2.5 goals * 9 of Leicester's last home 12 home league fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals * Leicester have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6 home fixtures in all competitions (4 PL, 1 CL) * 20 goals were scored in those 5 fixtures * Leicester have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 11 league fixtures * Leicester have scored in 15 of their last 18 home PL fixtures but not in their most recent fixture, a 2.0 home defeat to Everton * Leicester have now lost only 2 of their last 24 home PL fixtures * However they have only won 2 of their last 6 at home in the PL * Leicester have won only 1 of their last 9 in the PL. That, albeit, a stunning 4.2 win over Man City * West Ham have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 10 away PL fixtures. 7 of those also went over 2.5 goals * Over the calendar year, the record extends to 14 of their last 18 away PL fixtures - that's a 78% success rate in the market over the course the last 12 months * West Ham have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 19 away PL fixtures * While the Hammers have only failed to score in 1 of their last 15 away PL fixtures! * West Ham have conceded 2 goals or more in 11 of their last 15 away PL fixtures including 7 of the last 10 * West Ham conceded 28 goals in those 15 away games and 20 in their last 10 * The last 3 league meetings between these two sides saw BTTS and over 2.5 goals * Last year's corresponding fixture finished 2.2 with Leicester scoring an injury time penalty to claim a valuable point on route to their remarkable title triumph Final Verdict Champions Leicester are now in big trouble near the foot of the table following a painful boxing day home defeat to Everton and they will be desperate to bounce back as they welcome a West Ham side that will surely be buoyed by their fine 4.1 win at Swansea earlier in the week. The hosts really do need a change in their fortunes and I do expect a better performance here with West Ham rarely keeping clean-sheets on the road and although the Hammers claimed 3 points at Swansea, they aren't the best of travellers with just 2 wins in their last 10 on the road and I expect BTTS here @3/4 with the BTTS and over 2.5 goals combination also looking good and paying @6/5. It's hard to pick a winner in this one and I wouldn't touch the 21/20 on offer for a home win. West Ham are in much the better form but you have to expect some kind of reaction from a Leicester side that almost always scores. The Hammers have seen more than 3 quarters of all their away league fixtures in the last 12 months ending up with BTTS and over 2.5 goals and with Leicester struggling defensively, this one should follow the pattern of recent meetings and give us my favourite outcomes of BTTS and over 2.5 goals. Best Bets BTTS @ 3/4 Over 2.5 goals @4/5 BTTS and over 2.5 goals @6/5 _________________________________________________________________________________________ 15:00 Southampton vs West Bromwich Albion Prediction - 1.1 Key Facts * Southampton have seen 7 of their last 8 home league fixtures go UNDER 2.5 goals * Saints have seen 6 of their last 9 league games go UNDER 2.5 goals * WBA have seen 10 of their last 11 away league fixtures go UNDER 2.5 goals * WBA have seen five 1.1 draw's in their last 11 away league fixtures * Saints have seen BTTS in only 4 of their last 13 PL fixtures and only once in their last 6 home league fixtures * NONE of the last 8 meetings between these two sides saw BTTS. Only 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals * Only 1 of the last 6 meetings has gone over 2.5 goals * These sides are separated by just 1 point heading into this encounter. Final Verdict I'm not usually a man for the under 2.5 goals market but the numbers here do point to a likely low-scoring affair on the south-coast and with a new year coming upon us, I will be analysing more of these patters as I focus on the overs and unders markets a little more in the coming months. So let's try this one, the stats certainly suggest it has a good chance and I'm calling it a 1.1 draw so if you want to try BTTS @6/5, you might catch a break but I fancy this to be tight so I'm going under 2.5 goals @8/13 odds. Best Bets Under 2.5 goals @8/13 _________________________________________________________________________________________ 15:00 - Swansea vs Bournemouth Prediction - 1.2 Key Facts * Swansea have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 11 home PL fixtures including 6 of the last 8 * All 6 of those 8 also went over 2.5 goals * Swansea have scored in 12 of their last 14 home PL fixtures * Swansea have scored 9 goals in their last 3 home games including 5 in a 9 goal thriller with Crystal Palace * However, Swansea have conceded 20 goals in their last 9 home PL fixtures and 11 in their last 3! * Swansea have kept just 2 clean-sheets in their last 11 home PL fixtures * Swansea have now lost 11 of their last 15 PL fixtures * Swansea have conceded 40 goals in just 18 league fixtures this season * Bournemouth have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6 PL fixtures * Bournemouth have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 14 away PL fixtures * Bournemouth have kept just 4 clean-sheets in their 28 away PL fixtures (since 2015) * Indeed, the Cherries have managed just 1 away clean-sheet in their last 14 on the road since March * Bournemouth conceded 2 goals or more in 9 of those 14 fixtures * Bournemouth have scored in 8 of their last 12 away PL fixtures * Both of last season's meetings saw BTTS and over 2.5 goals with the corresponding fixture finishing in a 2.2 draw. Bournemouth won the reverse fixture 3.2 Final Verdict Bob Bradley has paid the PK (as he might say) for Swansea's dismal run of form with the American boss booted into touch following a disastrous 4.1 home defeat to the Hammers of London. The immediate and long-term future of the Swans looks somewhat bleak and unless things change swiftly, the home side can expect to be playing their football in the league below come next season. With Swansea leaking goals everywhere, and Bournemouth not the best of travellers, goals look likely here with visitors more than capable of scoring at least a goal against home rear-guard, that looks as poor as any of this or any other season. BTTS has to be the main call here @4/6 but I fancy this one to go overs with Bournemouth certainly good enough to claim the points against a side that are seem to be in something of a free-fall. Best Bets BTTS @4/6 Over 2.5 goals and yes @11/10 _________________________________________________________________________________________ 17:30 - Liverpool vs Manchester City Prediction - 3.1 Key Facts * Liverpool have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 6 of their 8 home league fixtures this season * Liverpool have lost only 1 of their last 21 home PL fixtures * Liverpool have scored 16 goals in their last 5 home PL fixtures * Liverpool have scored 2 goals or more in 11 of their last 13 home PL fixtures * Liverpool have only kept 2 clean-sheets in their last 9 home PL fixtures * Man City have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 11 PL fixtures including 6 of the last 8 * Man City have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 5 of their most recent 7 PL fixtures * Indeed 9 of Cities last 12 away PL fixtures have seen BTTS (7 of those 9 also went over 2.5 goals) * City have scored 33 goals in their last 14 away PL fixtures (averaging more than 2 a game) * Indeed City have scored 2 goals or more in 8 of their last 9 away PL fixtures * City have kept only 2 clean-sheets in their last 12 AWAY league games and only 2 in their 12 most recent PL fixtures * 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two sides have seen BTTS. 9 of those games also went over 2.5 goals * Liverpool scored 2 goals or more in 8 of those 11 meetings. * Liverpool have won each of their last 3PL meetings with Man City, scoring 9 goals in the process * City have not won at Anfield since 2003! Final Verdict I'm backing Liverpool to make a statement in the race for the title as they welcome Man City to Anfield in what should be a cracking contest between two sides separated by just 1 point in the table. Liverpool are in fine form and scoring plenty of goals and given their recent form against City, and the defensive instabilities of the visitors, I have to take the home side to score 2 or more at 10/11 odds while the home win @13/10 certainly appeals as well. BTTS seems pretty damn likely given the both current and historical form, and I'm giving the advantage to the home side in what should be a cracking Live TV encounter from Anfield with Liverpool pushed on to victory by an increasingly expectant home crowd. Best Bets BTTS and over 2.5 goals @10/11 Liverpool to score 2 or more @10/11 Liverpool to win @13/10 Saturday's Best Bets Leicester vs West Ham - BTTS @ 3/4 Leicester vs West Ham - Over 2.5 goals @4/5 Leicester vs West Ham - BTTS and over 2.5 goals - @6/5 Southampton vs West Bromwich Albion - Under 2.5 goals @8/13 Swansea vs Bournemouth - BTTS @4/6 Swansea vs Bournemouth - Over 2.5 goals and yes @11/10 Rangers vs Celtic - BTTS @4/6 Rangers vs Celtic -BTTS and over 2.5 goals @21/20 Rangers vs Celtic - Rangers not to lose @6/5 Liverpool vs Manchester City - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @10/11 Liverpool vs Manchester City - Liverpool to score 2 or more @10/11 Liverpool vs Manchester City - Liverpool to win @13/10 Comments are closed.
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