We are down to the penultimate weekend in the Championship and the race for the top 2 positions is still incredibly close with 4 teams still chasing the title and the other automatic promotion place. There are 11 games on offer today but I'm ignoring the 2 early games and will focus only on matches where 1 or both teams still have something to play for. It's tough to find value near the end of the season with the bookies pricing the teams who need to win at very short odds and I'm not convinced you should be backing the likes of 'boro at 4/6 odds on to win at Fulham or Ipswich at 1/2 to beat Forest. Needing to win and winning is not the same thing and while many will lump on the teams that are chasing promotion, it is rarely that straightforward and I expect 1 or of the hopefuls to slip up today. Here are my previews, predictions and best bets for the best of the action. 15:00 Fulham v Middlesbrough - Prediction 1.1 - No bet Fulham have improved lately with only 1 defeat in 5 and can make life difficult for the visitors today although given their need, you would expect an away win here but the short odds on offer make this one to avoid for me. Middlesbrough though are not the best side on the road with just 2 wins in their last 6 away days although they did just win at Norwich, and while the odds suggest an away win, I'm not entirely convinced they will get the points here at 4/6 odds on. No bet 15:00 Ipswich Town v N Forest - Prediction 2.1- Best Bet - BTTS @8/11 The BTTS stats here are pretty good and I prefer that to the 3/5 odds on offer for the home win. 5 of Ipswich's last 6 home games have seen BTTS, with 8 of their last 10 either home or away seeing BTTS, while 4 of Forest's last 6 on the road have also followed the BTTS pattern, including 7 of their last 10 and 11 of their last 14! Historically, 5 of the last 6 meetings at Portman road have also seen this outcome and while Ipswich's need is greater, and they should win, I fancy that it could be a nervy match with the home side sneaking the win. BTTS is priced at 8/11 15:00 Reading v Brentford - Prediction 0.1- Best Bet - Brentford to win @11/10 Brentford's play-off hopes are hanging by a thread and they simply have to win here if they are to have any chance going into the last games of the season next week. Reading have failed to score in 6 of their last 8 home games and they could struggle again today with nothing left to play for following their dramatic defeat to Arsenal in last week's FA Cup Semi-Final. I expect a home hangover and the entertaining visitors to pick up the points. 15:00 Rotherham United v Norwich City - Prediction 0.2- Best Bet - Norwich to win @8/13, Norwich to score 2 or more @8/11 Rotherham are suddenly in danger of relegation following the docking of 3 points for fielding an illegible player and I think their worries will continue today with the visit of high flying Norwich. Norwich are excellent on the road and always seem to score 2 or more and I'm sticking with a winning formula for a team that have served me well recently against a side who do leak goals and are not particularly strong at home. 15:00 Wigan Athletic v Wolves - Prediction 1.2- Best Bet - Wolves to win @6/4, BTTS @5/6 I was quite surprised to see the odds on Wolves who need to win if the are to have any chance of promotion against a Wigan side that would be relegated already had Rotherham not been docked points this week. Both sides have to win so we should see a pretty open contest and I fancy BTTS @but also expect a narrow away win for a Wolves side that have real pace in attack and I expect their quality in this area to be the difference. 15:00 Millwall v Derby County - Prediction 2.2- Best Bet - BTTS @4/5 Similar to the tie at Wigan, the home side have to win or they will be saying hello to league 1 next season while Derby will be looking for the win that secures their play-off spot. Derby's last away result was a 4.4 thriller at Huddersfield and I expect BTTS again here with Millwall improving with 2 home wins from their last 3. I can't back Derby to win at an odds on 17/20, even though they are expected totake the points so I'm going with BTTS at 4/5, mainly because of the ropy away form of Steve Mclaren's men. Other Fixtures 15:00 Birmingham City v Charlton - Prediction 1.1 - Best Bet - BTTS @4/5 15:00 Cardiff City v Blackpool - Prediction 2.0 - Best Bet - No bet 15:00 Huddsf'ld v Blackburn Rovers - Prediction - Best Bet - BTTS @4/6 Bo's Best Bets Millwall v Derby - BTTS @4/5 Norwich to beat Rotherham @8/13 Norwich to score 2 or more @8/11 Wolves to beat Wigan @6/4 Ipswich v Forest - BTTS @8/11 Speculative Bets Brentford to beat Reading @11/10 Ipswich to win and BTTS @3/1 Huddersfield v Blackburn - BTTS @4/6 Birmingham v Charlton - BTTS @4/5 Comments are closed.
|
Categories |