It was a fine weekend at bobreaksbookies with 5 out of 6 Best Bets winning from Saturday and Sunday while I nailed all 5 of my BTTS picks on Sunday with Germany delivering again on the goal markets. Werder Bremen are becoming a true favourite of mine asthey managed to make it BTTS and over 2.5 goals again, this time against champions Bayern. I was thrilled to see some late action in Sardinia as Cagliari brought up the BTTS pick late on at home to Bologna while Espanyol v Sevilla was much less complicated with both selections winning before half-time. So a profitable weekend delivered and we move on with a busy midweek calendar of football from England and I’ve picked out two games from Tuesday but before that, we have 1 match from La Liga this evening and it involves BTTS specialists Valencia who travel to the Canaries to take on Las Palmas. Here are my best bets for the midweek action. 20.45 - Las Palms vs Villareal Prediction - 2.2 Best Bets - BTTS @3/4, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @ 21/20 Key Facts * Las Palmas have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 6 home La Liga fixtures * Las Palmas are unbeaten in their last 14 home La Liga matches * Las Palmas have scored in 9 of their last 10 home league fixtures. * In the last 12 months, Las Palmas have scored in 16 of their 18 home league fixtures * Valencia have seen BTTS in 14 of their last 17 away league fixtures including 8 of their last 9 * 13 of those 14 BTTS games also saw more than 2.5 goals scored * Indeed, 11 of Valencia's last 14 away league fixtures since April have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored * Valencia have seen BTTS in 14 of their last 16 league fixtures (home and away) * 12 of those 14 games also went over 2.5 goals * Valencia have scored in 9 successive away league fixtures * Valencia kept their first clean-sheet in their last 27 in last weekend’s 1.0 win at Villareal. * Valencia have conceded 2 goals or more in 4 of their last 5 away league fixtures * Valencia have scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 5 league games * 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two sides saw BTTS Final Verdict I was pretty gutted to see Valencia keep their first clean-sheet in 27 away games at Villareal 10 days ago but I don't see them making it two in a row here against a Las Palmas side that always seem to make life difficult for the big boys when they visit the Canaries. Indeed, Las Palmas have lost only 4 of their last 25 home league fixtures with only Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid and Deportivo leaving the Canaries with 3 points while they even held leaders Real Madrid to a 2.2 draw back in September and some of the stats on offer suggest a similar outcome could be on the cards here. Valencia have improved hugely in the last few weeks with 8 points collected in their last 5 in La Liga, while scoring 11 goals in the process. However, defensive issues do remain, despite that rarest of clean-sheets at Villareal and I expect BTTS here @3/4 while this one also has a good chance of going over 2.5 goals. 19:45 Burnley vs Leicester Prediction 2.1 Best Bets - Burnley to win @2/1 Key Facts * Burnley have won 8 of their last 9 home fixtures in all competitions * Burnley have won 8 of their last 11 home PL fixtures including 6 of the last 7 * 4 of those 6 wins also saw BTTS (Burnley to win and BTTS @5/1) * Burnley have lost only 2 of their 11 at home. Man City and Arsenal the only sides to win at Turf Moor during that period * Burnley have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 7 home PL fixtures * Burnley have kept only 2 clean-sheets in their last 8 home PL fixtures * Leicester have lost 8 of their 11 away PL fixtures so far this season * Leicester have picked up just 3 points on the road and are still looking for their first away win of the season. * Indeed Leicester have not won any of their last 13 AWAY PL fixtures since May. They had won 9 of the previous 12! * Leicester have seen BTTS in 7 of 11 away PL fixtures this season * However they seen BTTS in only 1 of their last 7 PL fixtures. They had seen BTTS in all 7 of their previous 7 PL fixtures * 8 of those 11 also went over 2.5 goals Final Verdict While these two sides are separated by just 5 points in the league, it is the respective home and away records that leads me to making a rare WDW selection with Burnley far too big at 2/1 to win here. The hosts have the 4th best home record in the league, a remarkable stat at this point of the season while Leicester have the 2nd worst away record in the division with 0 wins and just 3 points from 11 so far during this, their title defence. Leicester were truly awful in their last away PL outing at Southampton (a 3.0 loss) and how they are favourites here is beyond me, especially given both sides respective home and away form of both sides. I don't usually pick from the WDW market but thevalue selection has to be a home win here @2/1 while if you want to play it a little safer, try Burnley DNB @1/1 or Burnley not to lose 8/15. 19:45 Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace - BTTS @ 3/4, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @6/5 Prediction – 2.2 Best Bets – BTTS @3/4, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @6/5 Key Facts * Bournemouth have seen BTTS in 5 of their last 6 home PL fixtures. All 5 of those matches also went over 2.5 goals * Bournemouth have conceded 13 goals in their last 6 home PL fixtures. They also conceded 2 goals or more in 5 of their last 6 home PL fixtures * Bournemouth have conceded 3 goals or more in 7 of their 10 most recent PL fixtures (home or away since November * 25 goals were scored in those 6 most recent home fixtures. That's an average of more than 4 per game * Bournmeouth have kept only 4 clean-sheets in their last 16 home PL matches * Bournmeouth have conceded 23 goals in their last 10 PL fixtures * Indeed the Cherries have been leaky at home for a while. 30 goals conceded in 16 home PL fixtures since the start of March 2015 * Bournemouth have won only 1 of their last 6 PL fixtures * Bournmouth have won only 2 of their last 7 home PL fixtures and just 5 from the last 15 * Palace have failed to score in their last 2 away PL fixtures. However.. * Palace have seen BTTS in their 8 previous away fixtures. 6 of those 8 BTTS games also went over 2.5 goals * Palace have won only 2 of their last 22 away PL fixtures. They had won 8 of their previous 12 on the road * Palace have won only 1 of their last 15 PL fixtures * Palace have conceded 20 goals in their last 7 away PL fixtures * Both of the last 2 meetings between these two sides saw BTTS Final Verdict I expect goals here when the 5th leakiest defence of Bournemouth, meets the 3rd most profligate in Crystal Palace. While Palace are desperately short of form, you would have to expect the Big Sam effect to take hold sooner or later and I expect them to at least find the net here against a home side that have been particularly vulnerable defensively of late. With 81 goals conceded between the pair, clean-sheets have been few and far between and I fancy BTTS @3/4 and over 2.5 goals as a combo @6/4 with Bournemouth usually scoring at home themselves. Best Bets Las Palmas vs Valencia – BTTS @8/13 – NAP Burnley DNB @1/1 - NB Bournemouth v Palace – BTTS @3/4 Bournemouth v Palace - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @6/5 Las Palmas vs Valencia – BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 Burnley to beat Leiecester @2/1 Burnley not to lose @8/15 Comments are closed.
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