I've picked out 3 fixtures from across Europe on Saturday with goals once again taking centre stage in most of my selections. There's a big game in Naples with struggling Juventus sure to face a hostile reception when they take on big rivals Napoli. I've got two games in Holland where goals and a big priced away win could be on the cards with minnows Heracles looking for a 6th win in a row at AZ while goals are surely to be expected when Heereveen take on Vitesse with each of their last 13 meetings producing BTTS! Here are the "Key Facts" and suggested bets for some of my favourite fixtures in Europe today. Eredivisie 17:30 Heerenveen vs Vitesse - Prediction -2.2 - Suggested Bets - BTTS @8/15 and BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/6 Key Facts * 11 of Heerenveen's last 14 home fixtures saw BTTS. 8 of those also went over 2.5 goals - that's a 78% and 57% success rate respectively. * 13 of their last 15 league fixtures either home or away have also seen BTTS. 8 of those went over 2.5 goals * All 3 of Heerenveen's home fixtures have seen BTTS * Heerenveen have won just 1 of their first 6 league games this season, and haven't won any of their last 5 * However they have only been beaten 2 times in 15 home fixtures and remain unbeaten in 3 fixtures this season * Heerenveen have scored in 24 of their last 27 home fixtures * Vitesse have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 11 away league fixtures - that's a 72% success rate * 9 of their most recent 12 league fixtures have seen BTTS - 75% success rate * Vitesse have scored in 13 of their last 15 away league fixtures * However they have failed to win any of their last 4 away league fixtures * Remarkably, each of the last 13 meetings between these two teams in the last 5 years have seen BTTS - 7 of the last 8 also went over 2.5 goals Final Verdict - Goals. Surely. Goals. The stats are overwhelmingly in our favour both in recent form but especially in the history of this fixture with 13 in a row seeing BTTS. Will it be 14 today? The bookies expect it @8/15 and I can't go against the form and history here. 19:45 AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles - Prediction 1.2- Suggested Bets - Heracles to win @12/5, BTTS @4/7 Key Facts * Heracles have surprised many by winning each of their last 5 league fixtures including a fantastic 2.1 win over PSV * Heracles have scored 14 in those 5 wins, conceding only 2 * They have now won 8 of their last 10 league games * Heracles have won 5 of their last 7 away league fixtures scoring 17 goals in the process * Heracles earned another win at home to Vitesse in the Dutch cup, winning 4.1 AET. * They have however only kept 3 clean sheets in 35 away league fixtures, the 3rd coming in their most recent away win at Den Haag * Heracles have not drawn an away game in any of their last 25 fixtures going back 18 months * AZ have lost 2 out of 3 home fixtures so far this season, failing to score in all 3 * They did pick up a morale boosting win in the cup this week, thumping VVV 6.1 at home * AZ have only won 1 of their last 6 league fixtures, losing 3 * Az have drawn only 1 of their last 14 home league fixtures * After only 6 games, Heracles sit 10 points above their opponents today * AZ have won 10 of their previous 11 home meetings with Heracles with BTTS in 5 of the last 6 in Alkmaar. Final Verdict - Heracles going for 6 in a row at big odds of 12/5 Little Heracles are in a stunning run of form, emphasized in their fantastic win over PSV last weekend having come from behind to claim a famous 2.1 victory and they will be full of confidence and excitement now as they travel to an out of sorts AZ who are still looking for their first home goal of the season. Form is clearly on Heracles side, even if history and the bookies are not, with the visitors a big 12/5 to get the 3 points and given both sides lack of draws in recent times, I expect an outright winner and on form, it could easily be Heracles who are really causing some waves in Holland with their recent results. One concern would be the 120 minutes Heracles were forced to play in midweek but in terms of form, there is no doubting that 12/5 represents excellent value for a team that are in tremendous form against a team that have yet to score in 3 home fixtures. BTTS @4/7 is pretty likely, considering the visitors have kept only 3 clean sheets in 35 on the road while AZ despite failing to score in 3 home fixtures, are a decent side and have history in their favour in recent outings against their opponents here. I'm taking a chance on an away win here at 12/5 and while the Heracles not to lose option @5/6 is viable, the stats demonstrate that Heracles either win or lose on the road. No draws in 25 means suggests the value lies in backing the away win here. Serie A 19:45 Napoli vs Juventus - Prediction -2.2 - Suggested Bets - BTTS @5/6 Key Facts * Napoli have scored 2 or more in 11 of their last 12 home league fixtures and in 18 out of 20 going back 1 year * Napoli have also scored at least 2 goals in 11 of their last 14 matches in the league either home or away. * Napoli have seen BTTS in 6 of their last 9 home league fixtures and 9 of their last 13 as well. - 67% success rate. 5 of those 8 BTTS fixtures also produced over 2.5 goals * They have also seen BTTS in 9 of their 12 most recent league fixtures. * Napoli have won 8 of their last 12 home league fixtures. * Napoli have scored 14 goals in 5 fixtures so far but none on the road at Carpi in their most recent fixture * Napoli have taken only 6 points from 5 games played so far * The champions Juventus have also started very poorly with 5 points in 5 fixtures and they were held to a shock draw with new boys Frosinone in their last fixture. * Juventus have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures * Juventus have kept just 3 clean sheets in 10 away league games * Juventus take on Sevilla in their next Champions League fixture on Wednesday * Juventus have won only 4 of their last 11 Serie A away fixtures * 3 of the last 4 meetings in Naples have seen BTTS * The last 3 meetings between these two sides all produced exactly 4 goals and BTTS. Final Verdict - Vital fixture for 2 out of form giants that could see goals Both sides are really struggling for consistency in the league but Napoli are in good form at home and I don't expect them to lose here against a Juventus side that have already dropped 7 points in 3 home fixtures with Udinese, Chievo and Frosinone as well as losing at title rivals Roma. Napoli looked to have turned a corner by winning 5.0 at home to Lazio in their last home showing but they were poor in their 0.0 draw at Carpi in midweek so for me it's tough to pick a winner. While Juventus have a big Champions League fixture on Wednesday with Sevilla to contend with, I expect coach Allegri to focus his attention on this match with the league form as disappointing as it is surprising. BTTS @5/6 looks like good value to me and I fancy we might see an entertaining score draw here with a raucous atmosphere guaranteed at the Stadio San Paolo. Suggested Bets AZ Alkmaar v Heracles - BTTS @8/15 Heerenveen vs Vitesse - BTTS @8/15 Heerenveen vs Vitesse - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/6 AZ Alkmaar vs Heracles - Heracles to win @12/5 Napoli v Juventus - BTTS @5/6 Comments are closed.
|
Categories |