I've picked out 4 games from the Championship in my hunt for goals this weekend as we look to bounce back from a pretty bad week if I'm being honest. There will always be ups and downs in betting, every punter knows the feeling of going on a bad run but I don't lose faith in my selections because over the course of the last 6 months, I have delivered profitable months in each and every month and bad runs have to be expected from time to time. That is not the case for September however and that does disappoint me but we have a big weekend ahead of us and given my form on weekends so far this season, I have every reason to be optimistic that we can still get back into profit for September. The key to improving the form is maintaining faith and patience, but being a little more selective, particularly in midweeks which have proven to be real profit drainers this month. I will be reducing the stakes on cup nights but I won't be panicking as we are still in healthy profit since the start of the season and that's the positive I am taking from a poor few days. I'm narrowing down my selections in order to focus more heavily on individual matches, hence only 4 games from this league today have been covered but I am feeling cautiously optimistic about the selections I've picked out with the goal markets my only focus. Here are my "Key Facts" and suggested bets for the Championship. Championship
15:00 Birmingham vs Rotherham - Prediction -2.2 - Suggested Bets - BTTS @ 8/11 Key Facts * Birmingham have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 9 home fixtures in the league - BTTS priced @8/11 * Birmingham have scored in 11 of their last 12 home fixtures in the league * However they have only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 9 * Birmingham have only lost 1 of their first 7 Championship matches this season and only 2 of their last 15 home league fixtures * 5 of those 7 fixtures saw BTTS * Birmingham lost to local rivals Aston Villa 1.0 in League Cup action this week, thus giving them less time to prepare for this fixture. * Rotherham have seen BTTS in each of their last 5 Championship fixtures, and in 7 of their last 8 league fixtures * Rotherham's last 4 away fixtures in the Championship and 5 of their last 6 on the road have also seen BTTS * Rotherham have kept 2 clean sheets in just 17 away Championship fixtures * Rotherham have scored in 10 of their last 12 away Championship fixtures * 6 of Rotherham's last 8 Championship fixtures have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals * Birmingham won last season's corresponding fixture 2.1 Final Verdict - Goals a good possibility at St Andrews Birmingham look like the stronger team on paper but they will have given absolutely everything in their midweek cup loss against rivals Aston Villa and this could be the Championship equivalent of a "Euroean Hangover" for the hosts and with Rotherham having the week off following a morale boosting win over Cardiff last weekend, I fancy the visitors can get something from the game. The stats suggest that BTTS is a touch likelier than the 8/11 price on offer and that's my best bet here but I wouldn't be surprised to see this fixture go over 2.5 goals as well with a high scoring draw my suggested final outcome here. 15:00 Brentford vs Sheffield Wednesday - Prediction -3.2 - Suggested Bets - BTTS @4/6, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @11/10 Key Facts * Brentford have seen BTTS in 6 out of 7 league fixtures so far this season - BTTS @8/11 * 9 of their last 10 home league fixtures have also seen BTTS. All 9 of those games also went over 2.5 goals - Over 2.5 goals @4/5 * Brentford have scored in 19 of their last 20 home fixtures - that's a 95% success rate - Shef Wed clean sheet - NO @2/9 * There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Brentford's last 13 home games in Championship. * However clean sheets are a rarity with only 3 in their last 17 home fixtures * Brentford have won 2 out of 7 fixtures so far this season * Sheffield Wednesday have seen BTTS in 5 of their last 6 away league fixtures and in 9 of their last 13 going back to March. * 9 of their most recent 11 fixtures have also seen BTTS with 4 of their last 7 seeing BTTS and over 2.5 goals - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @11/10 * Wednesday managed to win at Newcastle in midweek despite resting several first team players * Wednesday have failed to win any of their last 7 away league fixtures going back to March. Final Verdict - Goals Goals Goals. Not much to say really, beyond those stats that make the BTTS selection an obvious one while the double with over 2.5 goals has to have a good chance as well with Brentford seeing their last 13 going over 2.5 and each of their last 9 also seeing BTTS and over 2.5 goals as a double. BTTS looks very likely and I'm happy to take a chance on the double as I foresee an entertaining, high scoring encounter here at Griffin Park. 15:00 Ipswich vs Bristol City - Prediction - Suggested Bets - BTTS @ 8/11 Key Facts * Ipswich have seen BTTS in a remarkable 15 of their last 17 league fixtures. That's 88% of league games since February * 10 of their last 12 home games have also seen BTTS - that's 83% - BTTS @8/11 * Ipswich have scored in 31 of their last 35 home fixtures * However they have kept just 3 clean sheets at home in 2015 (16 fixtures) * Ipswich have won 4 of their first 7 fixtures but have won only 1 in 4. * Ipswich have lost only 1 of their last 12 home fixtures, winning 7 and drawing 4 * Bristol City sit at the opposite end of the table with just 5 points from 8 games * However they have picked up 4 of those points on the road with 1 win and 1 draw from 4 away fixtures * 3 of their 4 away fixtures have seen BTTS, including their most recent 3 fixtures. * Bristol have scored in 12 of their last 13 away league fixtures (9 of those in League 1) Final Verdict - Home win possible but BTTS more likely You would expect Ipswich to get the win here but their recent form is not encouraging enough for me to back them to win and given their outstanding record in the BTTS market, there's only 1 bet for me here and I think you can guess what that is. BTTS is priced @8/11 which suggests that outcome has a 57% chance of landing but I think it has a better possbility than that with Ipswich just so damn leaky at the back and Bristol doing their best work on the road so far. Ipswich have only won 2 out of their last 5 at home and they are much more reliable when it comes to BTTS so that's my pick here. 15:00 Preston vs Wolverhampton Wanderers - Prediction 1.2- Suggested Bets - BTTS @5/6 Key Facts * New boys Preston have seen BTTS in 3 out of their 4 home Championship fixtures this season and in 5 of their last 7 fixtures in all comps * Preston have scored in 21 of their last 22 home fixtures and in 40 out of 43 going back 2 years. * In 3 home fixtures in cup competitions, Preston scored 2 at home to Norwich and Bournemouth in their most recent fixture. They even managed 1 at home to Man United in the FA Cup. * Preston have lost 4 of their last 5 league fixtures * Preston could make changes after their midweek clash in the League cup against Bournemouth went to penalties. * Wolves have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 9 away league fixtures and in 11 of their last 14 league fixtures since April. * Wolves have lost 5 of their last 9 away league fixtures, winning 3 * Wolves have won only 2 of their first 7 league fixtures * Wolves have kept only 2 clean sheets in 13 away league fixtures * However they have scored in 14 of their last 16 away fixtures, scoring 20 goals in the process * Wolves lost easily in a 3.0 defeat to Middlesbrough in the League cup on Tuesday Final Verdict - Close encounter with BTTS a tasty 5/6 The stats suggest BTTS has a good chance but this is more of a gut instinct pick with something telling me to look more closely at a fixture I had planned to ignore. Wolves are probably the stronger team but their form isn't good while Preston are good at home, and almost always score. Wolves have their own defensive issues but still possess plenty of attacking threat with Benik Afobe and Adam Le Fondre in attack and they need 3 points to get back in the promotion pack and take some of the increasingly mounting pressure off their manager Kenny Jackett. Wolves could sneak the win with Preston's midweek cup exertions likely to affect their energy levels over the course of 90 minutes, but I'm confidently picking BTTS here at nice odds of 5/6. Suggested Bets Birmingham v Rotherham - BTTS @8/11 Brentford v Shef Wed - BTTS @4/6, Brentford v Shef Wed - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @11/10 Ipswich v Bristol City - BTTS @8/11 Preston v Wolves - BTTS @5/6 Comments are closed.
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