The Euro 2016 qualifiers resume this weekend with 27 games being played from Friday through to Sunday evening and there are some cracking contests to look forward to including a crunch match for Scotland in Dublin. Of the first 9 games on Friday, Wales v Belgium catches the eye, as does Croatia's home fixture with Italy in Zagreb and I have previews for all 9 fixtures, as well as some of the other less appealing contests. Andorra v Cyprus anyone? I will post further previews for Saturday and Sunday in due course but in the meantime, let's take a closer look at all the action on Friday evening. EURO qualification grp. A
18:00 Kazakhstan vs Turkey - Prediction - Best Bets - No bets With this game kicking off early, I'm going to give it a miss. No bets. 20:45 Iceland vs Czech Republic - Prediction 1.1- Best Bets - Draw @ 21/10, BTTS @10/11 Iceland can take a step closer to qualification as they welcome the Czech Republic to Reykjavik for this vital fixture between the top 2 sides in Group A. Both sides have inflicted defeats on group favourites Holland and whoever wins here will be almost guaranteed to qualify for next summer’s finals so this should be an intense game from the outset. The Czechs inflicted Iceland's only defeat so far in the campaign; a 2.1 reverse in Prague last November and will be optimistic of a positive result again here. The visitors are solid travellers with just 2 defeats in their last 13 away fixtures but Iceland themselves have a strong home record having lost just 1 of their last 8 at home and I expect them to battle hard here and earn a share of the spoils. BTTS is priced at 10/11 and once again it does have a chance with all 5 of the Czechs qualifiers seeing that outcome, although I expect this to be quite a low scoring affair and with Iceland strong at the back and only 2 of their last 9 qualifiers seeing BTTS, it's by no means a banker. The most compelling stat though lies with the Czechs away record in European Championship qualification matches in the last 20 years. They have scored in 23 of their last 24 away fixtures, failing to score only in Wales 8 years ago and when you also look at their record in both World Cup qualification and friendlies the record is mightily impressive with the Czechs scoring in 17 out of 22 away games going back to 2011. I expect a closely fought battle with a share of the spoils the most likely outcome at 11/5 while BTTS is worth considering, based purely on the Czech’s excellent away record in front of goal. 20:45 Latvia vs Netherlands - Prediction 0.2- Best Bets - No bets It's been an utterly miserable campaign for Guus Hiddink and Holland so far with defeats in Iceland and the Czech Republic followed by a poor draw at home to Turkey that was only achieved thanks to a last gasp Klaas Jan Huntelaar goal in Amsterdam and they now sit 5 points behind 2nd placed Iceland. Things haven't been getting much better for Holland lately and they somehow managed to surrender a 3.1 lead at home to the USA at the weekend, conceding 3 goals in the final 20 minutes, including 2 strikes in injury time to hand the US an unlikely 4.3 win and if they fail to win here in Latvia, they can surely kiss goodbye to their hopes of automatic qualification. Latvia are a pretty poor outfit so you would have to expect the Dutch to get the win they need but it might not be as simple as the 1/6 odds on a Holland win suggest and with Latvia losing just 4 of their last 12 home competitive fixtures, there's just no way you could back Holland, even on the handicap. Sure, Holland's need is urgent but the manner of their 4.3 defeat at home to USA last week suggests this is a team that is lacking confidence and defensive clarity so it's a match best avoided in my opinion. EURO qualification grp. B 20:45 Andorra vs Cyprus - Prediction -0.1 Best Bets - No bets With Cyprus just 2/9 to win in the beautiful principality of Andorra, I don't think I need to explain why I won't be betting on this fixture but if you do want to have a bet, consider Andorra plus 2 as they are rarely spanked at home and Cyprus are usually awful on the road but for me this is a no bet fixture. 20:45 Bosnia-Herzegovina vs Israel - Prediction 2.1 - Best Bets -BTTS @ 11/10 Bosnia are only 4/7 to win here and I won't be backing that but the 11/10 on BTTS has a chance when you look at the recent stats for both sides. Bosnia have just 1 clean sheet in their last 10 at home, with 7 of those 10 fixtures seeing BTTS while Israel have scored in 10 of their last 12 away fixtures with 5 of the last 7 also seeing BTTS. Israel sit 3rd in the group and are only 2 points behind Wales in the battle for qualification while Bosnia know that nothing other than a win will do with the gap between themselves and Israel standing at 4 points going into this fixtures. You would expect a home win but for me the odds are too short and BTTS has a pretty good chance and represents much better value at 11/10 odds against. 20:45 Wales vs Belgium- Prediction 1.2 - Best Bets - Belgium to win @7/10, BTTS @6/5 Belgium leads the way in Group B and remain unbeaten having gained 11 points from 15 so far although they were held to a 0-0 draw when these two sides met earlier in the campaign but should be confident having won 4.3 in Paris this week in a keenly contested friendly with next summers’ tournament hosts France. Belgium are unbeaten in their last 5 fixtures with Wales, and they are excellent on the road too, winning 8 of their last 10 away from Brussels although it won't be easy against a Wales side that have an excellent chance to qualify and could actually top the group with an unlikely win here. Much depends on the performance of Gareth Bale who usually lifts his game when playing for his home country and if the Real Madrid man can find top gear then Wales do have a chance to take something here but Belgium are strong at the back, conceding just 2 goals so far in the group and undoubtedly have far greater quality and depth in their team. The visitors have so much competition for places in their increasingly impressive squad and with so many on form players like Hazard, De Bruyne and Benteke, I think they will be too much for Wales to handle. I just can't see past them winning here at 7/10 odds but Wales are capable of scoring and you can get a tasty 6/5 on BTTS in a game the bookies expect to be a low scoring affair but 3 out of Wales last 4 at home have seen this outcome and at odds against, it might be worth a punt. I'm going for a narrow 2.1 win for the visitors with Hazard and Bale likely to be the star turns on the night but the overall quality of Belgium should be enough to edge them to victory and send them on their way to next summer’s finals. EURO qualification grp. H 20:45 Croatia vs Italy - Prediction 1.1- Best Bets - Draw @11/5, BTTS @11/10 A contender for the biggest match of the night as 1st placed Croatia welcome 2nd placed Italy to Zagreb in a fixture that will possibly determine who wins this group with both sides well placed to make the finals in France next summer. Norway are the only realistic challengers to these two sides but neither will want to lose here and give the Scandinavians hope of pinching a 2nd placed position I expect a somewhat cagey affair here with both sides content to take a point. I might have fancied the home win were it not for the absence of Luka Modric although the presence of Barcelona man Ivan Rakitic will be crucial for the hosts if they are to take control of this game. As it is, I don't expect a goal-glut, but a share of the spoils could yield a BTTS outcome, and if one side does emerge with the win, you would perhaps favour the hosts who played so well in the 1.1 draw in the reverse fixture in Milan last year. Croatia are virtually impossible to beat at home, having lost just 3 competitive fixtures at home in the 20 years since their birth as a nation in the mid 90's. That's just 3 defeats in 53 home games (including a 1.0 reverse to Scotland!) and I don't expect them to lose here either but with Italy rarely beaten in qualifying fixtures (just 1 defeat in 10 years of away qualifiers), I can't see past a draw here. Croatia are priced at 13/10 to get the win with BTTS an option @11/10 but I fancy a low scoring, and keenly contested share of the spoils at 11/5 odds. 20:45 Malta vs Bulgaria - Prediction 1.2- Best Bet - No bets Malta v Bulgaria is not a match I'm particularly keen on but BTTS has a chance again here at big odds of 5/4 with some interesting stats to back it up. Bulgaria almost always concede, and have just 1 clean sheet in their last 15 fixtures and only 3 from their last 18 away games while Malta, one of the weakest nations in the continent have scored in 5 of their last 7 home games. These 2 sides met in World Cup qualification 2 years ago with Bulgaria winning narrowly by 2 goals to 1 and a repeat could be on the cards here, but for me, despite these stats, I'm probably going to give this one a miss for my best bets. 20:45 Norway vs Azerbaijan- Prediction 2.0- Best Bets - No bets I think I’ll be giving this fixture a miss as well with Norway too short to back at just 1/3 odds on to beat group minnows Azerbaijan in Oslo tonight. Norway sit 3rd in the section, 4 points clear of a disappointing Turkey and a victory here will edge them closer to securing a play-off place and if Italy were to lose in Croatia, they would actually move into 2nd position in the group but with just 1 win in their last 9 at home, this isn't Norway's strongest side and with a trip to Italy still to come, 3rd place is surely an acceptable performance for this group of players. For these reasons, I won't be touching them. No bets. Bo's Best Bets Wales v Belgium - Belgium to win @7/10 Wales v Belgium - BTTS @6/5 Bosnia v Israel - BTTS @11/10 Iceland v Czech Rep - BTTS @10/11 Croatia v Italy - BTTS @ 11/10 Bo's Dour Draws Croatia v Italy Iceland v Czech Comments are closed.
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