After 3 long weeks, @bobreaksbookies is back and we are concentrating on the Europen football this weekend with the FA Cup not a favourite of mine for bets with most teams sure to make plenty of changes to their usual starting x1's. Game of the day comes from Valencia as a struggling Real Madrid travel to the Mestalla in a fixture that usually delivers plenty of goals and drama while we also have previews for Girona's trip to Malaga as well as 1 fixture apiece from the Bundesliga and from Serie A. Here then are Saturday's previews and selections. ***********One more selection added from Holland*************** La Liga 15:15 Valencia vs Real Madrid - Prediction 3.2 Current Form * Real have failed to win any of their last 4 away league matches. They had won the previous 13 * Real have won only 3 of their last 8 matches in all competitions * Real have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of their last 7 away league matches * Going back further, Real have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 15 of their last 20 away league matches * Real have kept only 6 clean sheets in their last 25 away league matches * Valencia have lost only 1 of their 10 home league matches this season * Valencia scored 2 goals or more in 6 of their last 8 home league matches * Valencia have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of their last 6 league matches * Valencia have lost 4 of their last 7 league matches. They had gone unbeaten in the first 13 * Real Madrid were dumped out of the Copa Del Rey at home to lowly Leganes on Wednesday * Valencia also lost 2.1 at Alaves in their cup tie, but still progressed to the semi-finals Past Meetings * Each of the last 9 (NINE!) league meetings between these two sides since 2013 have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored * 35 goals were scored in those 9 matches * Valencia have lost only 1 of their last 5 home matches against Real Madrid * Valencia have scored 2 goals or more in their last 4 home meetings with Real Madrid including their 2.1 win in last season's corresponding fixture * In fact, Valencia have scored 2 goals or more in 8 of their 9 most recent matches with Real Madrid * Real won only 3 of those 9 matches Final Verdict Zinedine Zidane takes his struggling Real Madrid side to Valencia this coming Saturday in a fixture that has in recent seasons guaranteed goals and plenty of entertainment and we should expect much of the same with both sides fortunes changing drastically in this campaign. Last season's champions Real finished 47 points ahead of Valencia but it is Valencia who currently hold a 4 point advantage on their opponents today and given that change in form, are hugely over-priced at 4/1 to beat a Real side that have failed to win any of their last 4 away league matches and continue to struggle with their form. Following thier shock home loss to Leganes in midweek, coach Zidane has described his sides current form as a "fiasco" and a trip to the Mestalla is probably the last thing the legendary Frenchman would have wanted at this stage of the season. A loss here would surely render Zidane as a dead man walking with Real likely to fire the former World footballer of the year, even if he can resurrect their season by winning a 3rd straight Champions League. I expect goals of course with BTTS and over 2.5 goals @4/7 looking pretty likely given past meetings and current form but the value picks are Valencia to score 2 or more @11/8 and Valencia or draw @13/10 with the hosts boasting an impressive recent record against Real. Valencia have scored 2 or more in 8 of their last 9 meetings with Real, and given their own improved form this season, and the marked downturn in the form of Real, should be able to repeat the feat here and that is my favourite selection from a fixture that has delivered 35 goals in those 9 most recent league meetings. Valencia to score 2 or more is generous @11/8. It was 2.2 in the Bernabeu when these two sides last met and I fancy Valencia to go one better here and claim the scalp of Zidane's men but the safer option is backing the home side not to lose @13/10 having avoided defeat in 4 of their last 5 home meetings with Real. When you factor in the huge improvements made by Valencia this season, I really feel the upset home win @4/1 is on the cards. Best Bets BTTS and over 2.5 goals @4/7 - 4 stars - NAP Valencia to score 2 or more @11/8 - 3 stars Valencia or draw @13/10 - 3 stars Valencia to win @4/1 - 1.5 stars 17:30 Malaga vs Girona - Prediction 0.1 Current Form * Malaga have won only 2 of their last 10 home league matches * Malaga have won only 3 of their last 22 league matches * Girona have lost only 3 of their last 12 league matches * Girona have lost only 2 of their last 9 away league matches * Girona have won 3 of their last 7 away league matches * Malaga have lost 6 of their last 10 home league matches * Girona sit 15 points ahead of Malaga after 20 games so far this season Past Meetings * Girona won 1.0 in the reverse fixture played earlier this season Final Verdict Girona can claim another away win when they travel to the south of Spain to take on a Malaga side that has collected only 12 points so far this season with relegation looking more and more likely with every passing week for a club that reached the semi-finals of the Champions League just 5 years ago. Changed times indeed. In contrast, Girona are on the rise, in this their debut season in La Liga and I fancy the visitors to get at least a point @4/7 odds against a Malaga team that have won only 3 of their last 22 league matches and only 2 of their last 10 at home. The La Liga new boys have performed fantastically well following their promotion from the Segunda division and I expect them to return to Catalunya with at least 1 point in the bag. Best Bets Girona or draw @4/7 - 3.5 stars Girona to win @21/10 - 2 stars Serie A 17:00 Sassuolo vs Atalanta - Prediction 1.2 Best Bets - BTTS @4/5 - 2.5 stars Current Form * Sassuolo have picked up 7 points from their last 3 home matches. They had collected only 2 points from their previous 7 at home * Sass have taken 11 points from their last 6 league matches, winning 3, drawing 2 and losing just once. They had lost 5 of their previous 6 league matches * Sass managed to beat both Inter and Sampdoria in those 6 matches, as well as drawing with Roma and Torino (all 4 opponents in the top 10) * Atalanta have won 5 of their last 6 away matches in all competitions including their last 3 on the road in Serie A * Atalanta saw BTTS in 5 of their last 6 away matches in all competitions * Atalanta have seen BTTS in 8 of their 10 away matches in Serie A this season and in 15 of their last 20 away since the start of 2017 * Atalanta have scored at least 1 goals in 19 of their last 20 away league matches Past Meetings * 6 of the last 7 meetings saw BTTS. None of the previous 7 saw BTTS * Atalanta are unbeaten in their last 8 meetings with Sassuolo, winning 3 of the last 4 Final Verdict - Close encounter expected Atalanta will fancy their chances of taking another 3 points when they travel to take on a Sassuolo side that has certainly improved following the arrival of their manager Giuseppe Iachini in late November. Prior to the arrival of Iachini, Sass had taken only 11 points from 14 games but under their new boss they have doubled their points tally in just 7 games and have lost only 1 of their last 6 in the league so Atalanta will surely have to be at their best to collect all 3 points. Having won 5 of their last 6 on the road, the visitors will have plenty of confidence but the value selection is BTTS with Atalanta seeing that outcome in 80% of away games this season (75% since the start of 2017) and given the recent improvements of Sassuolo, I fancy that outcome again here @4/5 odds. 15:30 Borussia Dortmund vs Freiburg - Prediction 3.2 Current Form * Freiburg have conceded 3 goals or more in 10 of their last 12 away league matches * Freiburg have conceded 26 goals in just 9 away league matches this season * Freiburg are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches, winning 4 and drawing 3 * Freiburg have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 6 of their last 8 league matches * Dortmund have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 6 of their last 7 home league matches * Dortmund have seen BTTS in 12 of their last 14 league matches Past Meetings * Dortmund have scored 3 goals or more in 6 of their last 8 meetings with Freiburg * Dortmund scored 3 goals or more in each of their last 6 home meetings with Freiburg * Dortmund won 3.1 in their last 2 meetings at home to Freiburg Final Verdict Goals should be on the cards with Dortmund boasting a strong recent record verus their opponents here who have struggled badly on the road in 2017. Freiburg have conceded a whopping 44 goals in 17 away league matches since the start of 2017, while they have let in 3 or more in 10 of their last 12 on the road, and yet they have managed to go unbeaten in their last 3 away matches, despite conceding 7 goals in those 3 fixtures! Dortmund have changed their manager in recent weeks, and a 0.0 draw in their last home fixture does add some doubt to my selections here but historically, Dortmund have a great record against Freiburg and given the visitors recent fixtures, goals should be on the cards here and I fancy BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 odds. With Freiburg conceding 3 or more in 10 of their last 12 on the road and in each of their last 6 visitirs to Dortmund, I'll take a chance on a repeat here at tempting 11/8 odds. Considering Dortmund are just 4/9 to score 2 or more, that price on 3 or more does seem a tad generous and is worth a small stakes punt. Best Bets BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 - 3 stars Dortmund to score 3 or more @11/8 - 2 stars 19.45 Twente vs PSV - Prediction 1.3 Best Bets - PSV to score 2 or more @1/2, 3.5 stars, BTTS @8/13 3.5 stars, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @10/11- 3 stars Current Form * Twente have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 6 of their last 10 home league matches * Twente have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 home league matches * Twente have scored at least 1 goal in 14 of their last 15 home league matches * Twente have not won any of their last 5 home league matches. They did manage a 3.3 draw with 2nd placed Ajax during that run * Twente conceded 14 goals in those 5 games * Twente conceded 3 goals or more in 4 of those 5 games * PSV have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 6 of their last 8 away league matches * PSV have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 19 away league matches * PSV have conceded 7 goals in their last 3 away game * PSV have won 6 of their last 8 away league matches * PSV scored 24 goals in those 8 games * PSV scored 2 goals or more in each of their last 4 league games and in 6 of their last 8 away games Past Meetings * Each of the last 5 meetings saw BTTS * 4 of those 5 games also went over 2.5 goals * 23 goals were scored in those 5 games * 4 of the last 5 meetings in Enschede saw BTTS and over 2.5 goals * Twente have scored at least 1 goal in 10 of their last 11 home meetings with PSV * PSV have scored 2 goals or more in their last 4 trips to Enschede * PSV have scored at least 2 goals in 8 of their last 9 matches against Twente in all competitions. * PSV are unbeaten in their last 9 matches against Twente in all competitions. Final Verdict - away win but BTTS looks likely Other Selections 15 : 30 Bayern München vs Hoffenheim - Prediction 3.1 Best Bets - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/6 - 2 stars * Hoffenheim have scored in 23 of their last 26 away league matches 19:45 Chievo vs Juventus - Prediction 0.2 Best Bets - Under 2.5 goals @43/40, Juventus to win to nil @11/10 Comments are closed.
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