14:30 Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05 - Prediction 3.1
Current Form * Hoffenheim have seen BTTS in each of their last 5 league matches * Hoffenheim failed to win any of those 5 matches, collecting just 2 points * Hoffenheim lost 3 games against opponents sitting 1st, 2nd and 4th in the table. * Hoffenheim have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 6 home league matches * Hoffenheim scored 2 goals or more in 3 of their last 7 home league matches * Mainz have conceded 2 goals or more 7 of their last 9 away league matches including each of the last 5 * Going back further, Mainz have conceded 2 or more in 16 of their last 23 away league matches * Mainz won only 1 of those 23 matches, losing 16 and drawing 6 * However, Mainz have managed 4 draws from their last 8 away league matches * Mainz have now conceded 2 goals or more in EACH of their last 9 league matches * Mainz have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 6 of their last 9 league matches * Mainz saw BTTS in 5 of their last 6 away league matches. 4 of those also went over 2.5 goals * Mainz scored exactly 2 goals in 3 of their last 4 away league matches Previous Meetings * Hoffenheim scored 3 goals or more in each of their last 4 meetings with Mainz * Hoffenheim scored 2 goals or more in 7 of the last meetings 9 including each of the last 4 at home * 4 of the last 5 meetings saw BTTS and over 3.5 goals scored * 3 of those 5 meetings saw over 4.5 goals scored * 26 goals were scored in those 5 matches * Hoffenheim won each of their last 3 home matches against Mainz, scoring 9 goals in the process Final Verdict Hoffenheim will be confident taking the points against a struggling Mainz side when these two sides square off on Saturday in a fixture that has produced a lot of goals in recent meetings. Mainz were dumped out of the DFB Pokal in midweek with a 3.0 loss at Frankfurt and having chased Bayern for 90 minutes last weekend, I expect the visitors to suffer from fatigue against a fresher and stronger opponent that has had all week to prepare for this fixture. Mainz have been rotten on the road for the best part of 18 months, losing more than 66% of all matches, and conceding 2 or more in 7 of their last 9 and in each of their last 5 and while Hoffenheim have not been in great form, they have had a tough run of fixtures and I expect their fresher legs to ensure a home win with 2 goals or more likely, especially when you factor in recent meetings which have seen plenty of goals for Hoffenheim. Given the hosts defensive frailties, BTTS has to have a strong chance and Mainz have been scoring goals in recent away matches so I'll take a chance on BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21with 4 of the last 5 meetings actually seeing BTTS and over 3.5 (three) goals scored. I fancy a home win but goals should be on the cards and we might end up with another high-scoring contest between two sides that have racked up 26 goals in their last 5 meetings. Best Bets BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21 - 2.5 stars Hoffenheim to score 2 or more @4/7 - 3 stars Hoffenheim to win @4/7 - 3 stars Over 3.5 goals @6/4 - 1.5 stars La Liga 15:15 Malaga vs Atletico Madrid - Prediction 0.2 Current Form * Atletico have won 4 of their last 5 away league matches * Atletico have won 8 of their last 10 league matches * Atletico kept a clean sheet in 7 of those 8 wins * Atletico have won to nil in 5 of their last 6 away league matches * Atletico have kept clean sheets in 6 of their last 7 away league matches * Atletico have seen under 2.5 goals scored in 7 of their last 8 league matches * Atletico sit 2nd in the table, 9 points behind Barcelona but 10 points ahead of Real Madrid * Malaga have lost to nil in 5 of their last 7 league matches * Malaga failed to score in 6 of those 7 matches * Malaga have failed to score in their last 4 home league matches and in 7 of their last 11 "en casa" * Malaga have seen under 2.5 goals scored in each of their last 9 league matches * Malaga have taken only 13 points from 22 league games this season Past Meetings * Atletico have won their last 4 matches against Malaga. They kept clean sheets in 3 of those 4 wins * Atletico have won 2 of their last 4 matches in Malaga. They kept clean sheets in both wins * 7 of the last 10 meetings including 4 of the last 5 went under 2.5 goals. Atletico won 6 of those 10 matches Final Verdict Atletico travel to bottom of the table Malaga on Saturday with Diego Simeone's side confident of collecting another 3 points against a Malaga side that can't buy a win, or even a goal in recent weeks with no wins in 7 for their manager, and man with the most Spanish sounding name of all-time, José Manuel González López The former Champions League semi-finalists are now 7 points adrift of safety and having only scored 1 goal in their last 7 league matches, their situation does not look promising and you would have to fancy the reliable Atletico to win @4/7 and to do it with a clean sheet as well @6/5 having managed that feat themselves in 7 of their last 10 league matches. Atleti do have a Uefa Europa League tie in Copenhagen to contend with on Thursday but I wouldn't expect any loss of focus for a side that have picked up in recent weeks, winning 8 of their last 10 and 4 of their last 5 on their travels in La Liga. Atletico at 4/7 to win seems good to me with the hosts struggling so badly throughout the season and losing 5 of their last 7 with only 1 goal scored. These fixtures have been low-scoring in recent years with 7 of the last 10 seeing less than 3 goals and you would expect this one to go under 2.5 goals again @8/15 odds but my preference here is for an Atletico win with a clean-sheet at tasty 6/5 odds and that is the stand-out selection for this early-kick off in southern Spain while Atletico to keep a clean sheet @8/11 also seems particularly generous given both sides relative capabilities in defense and attack. Best Bets Atletico to win @4/7 - 3.5 stars Atletico to keep a clean sheet @8/11 - 3.5 stars Atletico to win to nil @6/5 - 2.5 stars Under 2.5 goals @8/15 - 3 stars 19:45 Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad - Prediction 3.1 Current Form * Real have scored 3 goals or more in 5 of their last 7 home league matches * Real have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 4 of their last 5 La Liga matches * Real have only won 3 of their last 8 league matches * Real have only kept 4 clean sheets in their last 15 home league matches * Sociedad have lost 4 of their last 5 league matches * Sociedad did win 5.0 at home to Deportivo in their last league outing * That win was only their 2nd in 11 league matches * Sociedad have seen BTTS in 10 of their last 14 away league matches * Sociedad have taken only 2 points from their last 6 away league matches * Sociedad lost 4.2 at Villareal in their last away league outing * Real won 7.1 at home to Deportivo in their last home league outing Past Meetings * Real have scored 3 goals or more in 10 of their last 12 matches with Sociedad including 5 of the last 6 * Real have scored 3 goals or more in each of their last 7 home matches against Sociedad in La liga * Real have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 6 of their last 7 home matches against Sociedad in La Liga *Real have won their last 7 home matches against Sociedad Final Verdict Real remain distinctly Jekyll and Hyde but they will be confident of collecting the 3 points in the late game on Saturday against a Sociedad side that are struggling for form on the road with only 2 points from their last 6 on their travels. Real have been like a yo-yo in recent weeks, reaching the heights in smashing Valencia and Deportivo 4.1 and 7.1 and feeling the lows with home defeats to Leganes and an away draw with Levante. Goals have been a consistent theme of both sides recent fixtures and I expect both to score and at least 3 goals with Real netting 3 or more in each of their last 7 home contests with Sociedad while they have conceded at least 1 goal in 11 of their last 15 at the Bernabeu in La Liga. BTTS and over 2.5 goals are therefore pretty likely @4/7 while Real can score 3 or more again at the same odds of 4/7 if Jekyll and not Hyde, makes an appearance. Best Bets - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @4/7 - 3 stars 19:45 Napoli vs Lazio - Prediction 3.1 Current Form * Napoli have won 7 successive league matches and sit 1 point ahead of 2nd placed Juventus and 14 points ahead of 3rd placed Lazio * Napoli won by more than 1 goal in 4 of those 7 wins * Napoli have scored 2 goals or more in 11 of their last 14 home league matches including each of the last 3 * Napoli have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 4 of their last 7 home league matches including 2 of the last 3 * Napoli have only kept 2 clean sheets in their last 7 home league matches * Lazio have seen over 2.5 goals scored in 16 of their last 17 away league matches! 15 of those also saw BTTS! *Lazio have seen BTTS in 11 of their last 14 league matches * Lazio have seen over 2.5 goals scored in 20 of their last 22 league matches * Lazio have scored 29 goals in just 12 away league matches this season * Lazio have won only 1 of their last 4 away league matches. They had won 7 of the previous 8 Past Meetings * Napoli have won 4 of the last 5 matches against Lazio * Napoli scored 17 goals in those 5 matches * Napoli scored 2 goals or more in all 4 wins * Napoli won by 3 or more goals in 3 of those 4 wins * The last meeting in Naples did finish as a 1.1 draw * 4 of the last 6 meetings saw over 2.5 goals scored * Lazio have scored at least 1 goal in 4 of their last 5 trips to Naples * Napoli won 4.1 in Rome in this season's first meeting * Napoli have scored 2 goals or more in 5 of their last 6 matches against Lazio Final Verdict - Lazio are playing away? Bet on goals. That mantra has proved hugely successful over the past year with Lazio's away support certainly getting their moneys worth in terms of entertainment over the last 12 months with the Romans almost always scoring, and scoring plenty with 28 in just 12 away fixtures this season. 65 goals have been scored in Lazio's last 17 away league matches with all but one of those matches seeing at least 3 goals scored and you would have to favour that outcome again here with Napoli returning to top form in recent matches and Lazio unlikely to favour a defensive approach as they look to maintain their narrow advantage over Inter and Roma in the battle for Champions League spots. Recent meetings have seen Napoli dominate their Roman rivals with 4 of the last 5 meetings producing handsome victories for the Neapolitans and I expect a similar outcome here with Napoli winning each of their last 7 league outings and scoring 8 goals in their last 3 home matches. Napoli can score at least 2 goals @8/13 odds while over 2.5 goals is also priced at 8/13 and I expect both outcomes with Lazio certainly strong enough to make this an entertaining contest from the Stadio San Paulo. Best Bets Napoli to score 2 or more @8/13 - 3.5 Stars Over 2.5 goals @8/13 - 3.5 Stars BTTS and over 2.5 goals @20/21 - 2.5 Stars Comments are closed.
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