Our final preview for Saturday takes us to Spain and Italy with 3 games from La Liga and Serie A examined in detail. Real welcome Sevilla to the Bernabeu while there is a huge top of the table clash from Turin as Juventus welcome high-flyers, Internazionale. The final selection comes from Valencia with Celta Vigo the visitors in another potentially interesting tie. Here then are your final previews for Saturday and don't forget, I will take all of these picks to form the Best Bets post which I will put out on Saturday morning. #BOlieve La Liga
15:15 Real Madrid vs Sevilla - Prediction 3.1 Best Bets - Over 3.5 match goals @8/13, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @4/6, Real to win and BTTS @11/10 Current Form * Real have scored exactly 3 goals in each of their last 4 home league and CL fixtures * Real are unbeaten in their last 20 HOME league fixtures with 15 wins and 5 draws * Real have seen over 2.5 goals scored in 7 of their last 9 fixtures. 5 of those also saw BTTS * Real have conceded 2 goals exactly in 3 of their last 4 fixtures (all comps) * Real have kept only 8 clean sheets in their last 26 home league fixtures while only 1 of those clean sheets came against the top 8 in the division (against Villareal) * Sevilla have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 4 of their last 5 league fixtures * Sevilla have lost 4 of their last 5 away league fixtures but did win 3.2 at Villareal in their most recent away league fixture * Going back further, Sevilla have lost 8 of their last 15 away league fixtures * Sevilla have conceded 25 goals in their last 12 away league fixtures. * Sevilla conceded 2 or more in 8 of those 12 matches and 3 or more in 5 of those 12 * In away matches, against top 6 opposition, Sevilla have seen over 2.5 goals scored in 9 of their last 11 league fixtures and over 3.5 goals in 4 of their last 8 Past Meetings * 6 of the last 8 meetings between these two sides went over 3.5 goals ^ 15 of the last 17 meetings went over 2.5 goals * 10 of the last 13 meetings saw BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored * A remarkable 59 goals have been scored in those 13 matches. That's an average of 4.5 goals per game * Real have scored at least 2 goals in their last 10 home meetings with Sevilla and 3 or more in 7 of those 10 (1 AET) Final Verdict There seems to be 3 certainties in this fixture. A home win, lots of goals and both teams scoring. Over 2,5 goals seems certain but is surely too short @1/4 so you can try BTTS and over 2.5 @4/7 as well as over 3.5 match goals @8/13 despite both prices being relatively slim. Real to win and BTTS @11/10 holds a little more appeal here. Recent meetings tell us that goals should be expected with Real always getting at least 2 in home meetings with Sevilla, and with Real not in the best of form defensively, Sevilla can definitely score themselves having done so in 11 of their last 14 matches with the Spanish champions. Real have scored exactly 3 goals in each of their last 4 home league and CL fixtures and I fancy a repeat here with Sevilla not the best defensively. Real to score 3 or more pays @8/11 Ultimately, I expect a comfortable home win for Real with Sevilla struggling on the road wth 4 losses in their last 5 while their failure to beat Maribor in the CL on Wednesday denied @bobreakbookies a lovely treble winner. but hopefully, they won't let me down again here. 19:45 Valencia vs Celta Vigo - Prediction 2.1 Best Bets - BTTS @4/7, Over 2.5 goals @8/15, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/6, Valencia to score 2 or more @8/15 Current Form * Valencia scored 3 goals or more in 4 of their last 5 home league fixtures * Valencia have seen BTTS in 2 of their last 4 home league fixtures * Valencia have scored 2 goals or more in 10 of their last 12 matches in all competitions * Valencia have seen over 2.5 goals scored in 7 of their last 10 home league fixtures including 4 of the last 5 * Valencia's last 10 league fixtures have averaged 3.8 goals per game. Celta's last 10 have averaged 3.5 goals per game * Valencia have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 home league fixtures this season * Valencia have won 5 and drawn 2 of their opening 7 home league fixtures * Valencia have scored 15 goals in their last 5 home league fixtures and 29 in their last 10 overall * Celta have seen over 2.5 goals in each of their last 12 away La liga fixtures * 9 of those 12 also saw BTTS * Celta have scored 13 goals in their last 5 away La Liga fixtures * Celta managed a 2.2 draw at Barcelona in their most recent away league fixture * Celta have scored in 15 of their last 17 away La Liga fixtures only failing to score at Barcelona and Malaga * Since February 2016, Celta have scored in 28 of 35 away league fixtures * Celta have seen over 2.5 goals scored in 16 of their last 20 league fixtures * Celta have conceded 2 goals or more in 9 of their last 10 away league fixtures Past Meetings * 5 of the last 6 meetings between these 2 sides saw BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored * 9 of the last 10 meetings also saw BTTS * 7 of the last 10 meetings went over 2.5 goals * Valencia won 3.2 in last seasons corresponding fixture Final Verdict Valencia will be hopeful of getting back to winning ways when they entertain Celta Vigo in the final fixture of the weekend but I doubt it will be easy with Celta in decent form and carrying a real threat going forward, especially on their travels. The hosts have been excellent at home this season, winning 5 of 7 and scoring plenty but they were poor in their defeat at Getafe last weekend and with Celta scoring 13 in their last 5 away fixtures, including 2 at the Nou Camp last weekend, they will be confident of finding the net again here. With 9 of their last 10 meetings seeing BTTS, and Celta scoring so many goals away from home lately, BTTS has to be a solid pick here @4/7 while over 2.5 goals seems likely as well @8/15 with Celta seeing that outcome in each of their last 12 away league fixtures. The double pays @5/6. Finally, Valencia to score 2 or more @8/15 looks a great shout with Celta conceding 2 or more in 9 of their last 10 away and Valencia scoring 2 or more in 10 of their last 12. Serie A 19:45 Juventus vs Inter - Prediction 1.1 Best Bets - BTTS @10/11, Inter or Draw @5/4, Draw @11/4 Current Form * Juventus have seen BTTS in 6 of their last 9 league fixtures and in 3 of their last 4 at home * Juventus have won 41 of their last 43 home league fixtures * Juventus home loss to Lazio was only their 2nd home league defeat in a staggering 93 matches * Juventus have only kept 1 clean sheet in their last 4 home league fixtures. They had kept 12 clean sheets in their previous 15 * Inter have seen BTTS in 10 of their last 13 away league fixtures * Inter are unbeaten in their last 17 league fixtures, winning 14 and drawing 3. They had lost 6 of the previous 7! * Inter have scored in 13 of their last 15 away league fixtures * Inter scored 2 goals or more in 9 of those 13 matches * Inter have beaten Roma in Rome, and drawn at Napoli during their unbeaten start to the season Past Meetings * Only 1 of the last 6 meetings saw BTTS. Each of the previous 7 did see BTTS * Juventus have won the last 3 meetings in Turin with clean sheets in all 3 wins * Inter did win 2.1 in the reverse fixture in the San Siro last season Final Verdict Inter are in great form and having had extra days to prepare for this one, I'm, backing the Milanese side not to lose @5/4 in a fixture that is likely to be pretty tight despite both sides prowess in front of goal. With Juventus involved in midweek Champions League action, they may need to rotate their squad here somewhat and with captain Buffon expected to miss out, I don't quite see how the bookies have Juve as 4/6 odds on favourites. Of course, Juve have a wonderful home record but Lazio have already beaten them on their own soil this season and there can be no doubt that this current Inter side represents an even bigger test with Mauro Icardi leading the line and in particularly lethal form with 5 goals in his last 3 LEAGUE appearances and 16 so far this season in Serie A. Inter were able to win in Rome and avoid defeat in Naples and I fancy they can achieve at least a draw here so I will take a chance on Inter not to lose at a big price of 5/4. BTTS is by no means a banker but it has to have a chance with Juventus almost always scoring at home and Inter hugely improved this season under the guidance of coach Spaletti. I really fancy a 1.1 draw here so take from that what you will but for me, Inter not to lose is the best pick here. La Liga and Serie A Best Bets Valencia vs Celta - BTTS @4/7 - 3.5 stars Valencia vs Celta - Valencia to score 2 or more @8/15 - 4 stars Valencia vs Celta - Over 2.5 goals @8/15 - 4 stars Real vs Sevilla - Over 3.5 goals @8/13 - 3.5 stars Real vs Sevilla - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @8/13 - 4 stars Juventus vs Inter - BTTS @10/11 - 2.5 stars Juventus vs Inter - Inter not to lose @5/4 - 3 stars Other Selections Real vs Sevilla - Real to win and BTTS @11/10 - 3 stars Valencia vs Celta - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/6 - 3 stars Juventus vs Inter - Draw @13/5 - 1 star
David
8/12/2017 12:23:57 pm
Excellent analysis Bo! Comments are closed.
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