It has been a tremdous week @bobreaksbookies with 8 out of 8 NAP's and NB's landed while 19 out of 23 bets returned to make it a fantastic return to the site. It's that time of year when form and stats begin to take shape and historically these have been my most rewarding months with plenty of patterns to analyse in our search for goals. I've got 7 games for Saturday covered with games from Spain, Germany and England as well as Juventus clash with Atalanta from Serie A. Here are my Key Facts and Best bets as well as the NAP, and NB's which will make up the corner stones of my bets this weekend. 13.00 Granada vs Sevilla Prediction 1.2 Best Bets - BTTS @5/6 Key Facts * Granada have seen BTTS in 10 out of 13 La Liga fixtures so far this season (77% hit rate) * 4 of their 6 home fixtures have also seen BTTS * Sevilla have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 10 away league fixtures including each of their last 5 away league ties this season and in 10 from 13 all league fixtures this season. * Granada are unbeaten in their last 3 fixtures with Sevilla, winning the last 2 meetings, 2.1 at home and more recently in May, winning 4.1 in Seville * 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two sides have seen BTTS as well as 5 of the last 6 meetings in Granada * Sevilla have won 2 of their last 3 away league fixtures having failed to win ANY of the previous 22! * Sevilla have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 15 away league fixtures Final Verdict Granada are hardly prolific scorers but given their history with Sevilla and the visitors inability to keep clean sheets on the road, BTTS looks to have a good chance at decent odds here. Sevilla almost always concede on the road with only 4 away clean sheets in their last 30 away league fixtures and for that reason, I'm backing the hosts to score and given the visitor’s superior quality and their own goal-scoring prowess, BTTS has to have a good chance @5/6. My one drawback to the selection is the early kick-off which can sometimes affect both the focus of the players and even the atmosphere in the crowd but as this is a local derby, I expect a good game and a likely away victory with BTTS. 14:30 Bayer Leverkusen vs. Freiburg Prädiktion - 2.1 Best Bets – BTTS @ 4/6, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 Key Facts * Leverkusen have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 13 of their last 16 league fixtures * Leverkusen have conceded 8 goals in their last 3 home league fixtures * Leverkusen have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 8 home league fixtures * Leverkusen have conceded 14 goals in their last 6 league fixtures * Freiburg have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 away league fixtures and in 5 of their 6 most recent league fixtures * Freiburg have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 away league fixtures. * Freiburg have scored in 8 of their last 9 away league games. 17 goals were scored in those 4 games. * Just 1 point separates these two sides who sit 10th and 11th respectively Final Verdict Goals have every chance here with both sides involved in plenty of BTTS and over 2.5 fixtures recently. Leverkusen are certainly struggling this season having finished in the top 4 last year and they have certainly been leaking goals of late with clean sheets in the league few and far between. Both sides are prominent in these markets in the past 6 months and when two such sides come together, the chances are, the results will be similar. I'm going for goals and BTTS here with both sides capable going forward and leaky defensively. 14:30 Werder Bremen vs. Ingolstadt Prediction - 2.1 Best Bets - BTTS @7/10, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @ 21/20 Key Facts * Werder are kings of the goals market. They have seen BTTS in 17 of their last 18 home league fixtures * 14 of those 17 BTTS fixtures also saw over 2.5 goals * Werder have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 24 home league fixtures * Werder have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in each of their last 11 league fixtures and in 16 of the last 19 since March * In the last year, 85% of Werders fixtures have seen BTTS (28 OUT OF 33) * Inglostadt are solid in the BTTS market on the road with 8 of their last 12 resulting in that outcome * Ingolstadt have scored in 9 of their last 12 away league fixtures * Inglolstadt have conceded 2 or more in 12 of their last 16 away league fixtures Final Verdict Werder are the most prolific team in the market so far this season and while the visitors are hardly the most prolific team, you would fancy they can notch against a home side that simply don't do clean sheets. This should be a close contest but BTTS has to have every chance at a decent price 14:30 Hoffenheim vs FC Cologne Prediction - 1.1 Best Bets - BTTS @4/6, Draw @12/5 Key Facts * Hoffenheim have seen BTTS in 8 of their last 10 home league fixtures and in 9 out of 12 league fixtures so far this season * Hoffenheim remain unbeaten in the Bundesliga having won 5 and drawn 7 of their opening 12 fixtures * Hoffenheim have lost only 1 of their last 13 home league fixtures * Hoffenheim have scored in 21 of their last 25 home league fixtures * Cologne have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 10 away league fixtures including 4 of their last 5. * Cologne have drawn 10 of their last 17 away league fixtures * Hoffenheim have drawn their last 3 league games to make it 7 draws from 12 just fixtures so far this season * Both sides sit neck and neck on 22 points after 12 games in 5th and 6th position respectively * 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two sides saw BTTS as well as each of the last 5 meetings in Hoffenheim. * Each of the last 3 meetings finished level after 90 minutes Final Verdict These are two evenly matched sides and with form and history on our side, BTTS looks to have a very good chance here @4/6. Both sides are hard to beat and both have a history of draws in the league and against each other and all the signs here are leading me to a share of the spoils with BTTS. 15:00 Tottenham vs Swansea Prediction 3.1 Best Bets - BTTS @5/6 Key Facts * Spurs have seen BTTS in 6 of their last 7 fixtures with no clean sheets in those 7 fixtures * Spurs have won only 1 of their last 10 fixtures * Spurs have seen BTTS in their last 4 PL fixtures as well as 3 of their last 5 at home * Spurs have scored in 14 successive PL home fixtures * Spurs are again missing key centre-back Alderweireld in defence * Swansea have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 8 PL fixtures * Swansea have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 away PL fixtures * Swansea have seen BTTS in 11 of their last 13 fixtures in all competitions * 10 of Swansea’s last 14 fixtures in all competitions saw BTTS and over 2.5 goals including 7 of the last 9 and each of the last 4! * Swansea have scored in 13 of their last 16 away PL fixtures * * 8 of the last 10 meetings since 2011 saw BTTS while each of the last 5 meetings have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals * Tottenham have scored 2 or more in 6 of their last 7 meetings with the Swans Final Verdict Spurs have been something of a bogey team @bobreaksbookies so I always have my reservations about them but they look likely to score, concede and win here in a contest with a Swansea side that are defending like a basketball team. No coincidence that their coach is an American? Well, i do expect goals here with form and history on both of our side I am willing to take on a nice price of BTTS @4/5 and BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/4 Spurs have lost their last two and will be desperate to get back to winning ways against a Swansea team that can't stop conceding goals with 11 leaked in their last 4 league fixtures alone. 20.45 Juventus v Atalanta Prediction - 2.1 Best Bets - BTTS @ 1/1 Key Facts * Atalanta are in a tremendous run of form. Unbeaten in their last 9 with 8 wins, including each of the last 6. * Atalanta are unbeaten in their last 5 away league fixtures, have won 4 in a row while keeping clean sheets in 3! Impressive. * Atalanta have scored in 9 of their last 11 away league fixtures since April * During their fine run, Atalanta have claimed the scalps of Napoli, Roma and Inter * Atalanta sit 5th in the table, just 1 point behind 2nd placed Roma * Juventus have won 23 in a row at home in the league * Juventus have won the last 12 meetings between these sides since 2009 * Juventus have kept just one clean sheet in their last 8 fixtures in all competitions * Juventus have scored 2 or more goals in each of their last 11 home league fixtures * Juventus have scored all but 1 of their last 73 home league fixtures! * Juventus have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 at home in all competitions * Juventus suffered a shock 3.1 loss at Genoa in their last league fixture Final Verdict While the stats are not overwhelmingly in favour of BTTS, I do fancy that the visitors here can score and make this a pretty interesting contest against a Juventus team that were pretty comprehensively beaten at Genoa last week. Atalanta are in a tremendous run of form and should not be taken lightly here and given Juventus penchant for conceding of late (1 clean sheet in 8) I fancy that we could well see BTTS at a generous 1/1 price. The visitors have scored 18 goals in their last 9 league fixtures and I fancy they can score to bring up the BTTS selection. 15:15 Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction - 22 Best Bets - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @8/11 Real to score 2 or more @11/8 Key Facts *19 of the last 20 meetings between these two sides saw BTTS. 18 of those 20 also went over 2.5 goals with 17 seeing both outcomes. * Each of the last 10 meetings at the Camp Nou have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @8/11 * Real have won in 3 of their last 5 visits to the Nou Camp * Barcelona have scored only 7 goals in their last 7 competitive fixtures. The previous 7 yielded 22 * Real have won 13 of their last 15 away league fixtures * Real Madrid have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 8 away league fixtures * Real have scored 20 goals in just 6 away league fixtures so far this season * Real have scored 2 goals or more in 8 of their last 10 visits to the Camp Nou since 2011 - Real to score 2 or more @11/8 Final Verdict Goals are always the staple bet when these two sides meet and while the absence of Gareth Bale is a major blow for the visitors, I do believe that we are highly unlikely not to see the goal markets deliver again in a fixture that has rarely let the BTTS market down in the past 5 years. With the hosts 6 points behind, nothing short of a win will do and as ever, this should be an open and exciting affair with goals almost always on the cards. Remember, 17 of the last 20 have seen BTTS and gone over 2.5 goals so the likelihood of such an outcome here is definitely greater than the odds on offer. Given the home sides troubles of late, it wouldn't surprise me to see Real take the spoils and the 11/8 on offer for the visitors to score 2 or more is excellent value, especially when you consider they have done so in 8 of their last 10 trips to the Nou Camp and with Barcelona looking particularly fragile at the moment, Real must have every chance of claiming the spoils in a fixture that will surely produce goals. 15:00 Sunderland vs Leicester - Prediction 1.1 Best Bets - BTTS @4/5 Key Facts * Leicester have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 8 away league fixtures * Leicester have scored in 23 of their last 25 away league fixtures (92% success rate since the start of last season) * 17 of those 25 also saw BTTS (68%) * However, Leicester have not kept a clean sheet on the road in their last 8 * Leicester have failed to win any of their last 8 away league fixtures * Leicester conceded 14 goals in those 8 fixtures * Leicester have seen BTTS in their last 5 PL fixtures. 4 of those also went over 2.5 goals * Sunderland have scored in 7 of their last 8 home league fixtures. * Sunderland have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 6 home league fixtures * Sunderland, despite being bottom have scored 7 goals in their last 4 home league fixtures * In Jermain Defoe, Sunderland have the 3rd top goal scorer in the league since January with 19 calendar goals. Final Verdict Leicester are really struggling and are under some serious pressure as the defending champions with their league form not matching their CL exploits. With the visitors so poor on the road lately and rarely keeping clean sheets, this one looks poised to see BTTS with Sunderland struggling themselves to keep clean sheets. I fancy the hosts to cause some serious difficulties for Leicester here and a share of the spoils with BTTS might be the final outcome here. Best Bets in order of confidence Barcelona v Real - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @8/11- NAP Leverkusen v Freiburg - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 – NB Werder v Ingolstadt - BTTS @7/10 – NB Leverkusen v Freiburg - BTTS @4/6 Hoffenheim v Cologne – BTTS @4/6 Sunderland v Leicester - BTTS @4/5 Spurs v Swansea – BTTS @4/5 Spurs v Swansea – BTTS and over 2.5 goals @5/4 Real Madrid to score 2 or more @11/8 Granada v Sevilla – BTTS @5/6 Juventus v Atalanta – BTTS @1/1 Comments are closed.
|
Categories |