We have an action packed Saturday and that causes it's own problems with so many matches to choose from but I've managed to cover 7 of the UK matches in details as we search for goals. Spurs travel to Watford in a fixture that could well provide those lovely goals we seek, while game of the day comes from The Emirates Stadium as on-form Arsenal welcome second placed Man United to town in what could prove a decisive fixture in the title race. Here then are my previews and best bets from the best of the action in England with my European football preview to follow later on Friday. #BOlieve Premier League 15:00 Watford vs Tottenham - Prediction 2.2 Best Bets - Over 2.5 goals @7/10, BTTS @4/6, Double @6/5, Watford to score 2 or more @9/4 Key Facts * Watford have seen over 2.5 goals in 8 of their last 10 PL fixtures while 6 of those 8 games also saw BTTS * Those 10 games averaged 3.9 goals per game * Watford have seen over 2.5 goals scored in all 5 fixtures against the rest of the big 6 in the division this season, with BTTS in 4 of those (3.3 vs Liverpool, 0.6 vs Man City, 2.1 vs Arsenal, 2.4 @Chelsea, 2.4 vs Man Utd) * Watford have conceded 27 goals in their last 7 games against the big 6 in the league * Watford have scored 2 goals or more in 11 of their 14 PL games this season including 8 of their last 9! * Spurs have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6 away PL fixtures * Spurs have collected only 4 points from their last 5 PL games while they have lost each of their last 3 away in the Premier League * Spurs conceded 2 goals or more in 3 of their last 5 away PL fixtures including their midweek loss at Leicester * Spurs have lost 4 of their last 8 fixtures in all competitions * Spurs won 4.1 at Watford in their last meeting in the PL in April of this year Final Verdict It has been a terrible November for Spurs with only 4 points picked up in their last 5 league fixtures and a trip to Vicarage Road to face a dangerous Watford side carries no guarantees that they will return to winning ways for this their first fixture of a busy December. Goals seem pretty likely considering Watford's recent stats and performances against the best sides in the division. 27 goals were scored in those 5 games against the division's top sides over the past year with all 5 going over 2.5 goals and that surely looks the safest call in this fixture with their most recent meeting also producing goals, a 4.1 win for on-form Spurs back in April. Watford will surely expect an improved performance and result against a side that has gone right off the boil in the Premier League in November, While Watford are certainly an improved team under Marco Silva, especially in front of goal, they are still vulnerable in defences as well with 27 goals conceded in their last 7 matches against the big 6. With Spurs being a member of that group, they will expect to score and win but it won't be easy, given their current form and Watford's improvements in finding the back of the net. Both are likely to score here @4/6 as well so the double pays off nicely @6/5 while Watford can score 2 or more at a big price of 9/4 having managed that trick in 9 of their last 10 in the PL and in 11 of their 14 games this season. Spurs, on the other hand, have lost their last 3 on the road but will surely expect an improvement against a Watford side that love to go forward, and that may well play into Spurs counter attacking hands. I expect an open and entertaining contest between two attack-minded outfits, but I can't pick a winner, so let's bank on goals here with over 2.5 goals @7/10 my best bet here. 15:00 Leicester vs Burnley - Prediction 1.1 Best Bets - Burnley or draw @23/20, BTTS @1/1 Key Facts * Burnley have won 4 of their last 5 PL fixtures * Burnley have lost only 2 of their last 12 PL games (@Man City, and home to Arsenal) * Burnley have only lost 2 of their last 9 away PL games while they have won 3 of their last 4 on the road (@Everton, Soton, Bournemouth) * Only Chelsea and Man City have collected more AWAY points this season than Burnley * Over the past 12 months, Burnley have scored in 16 of their 19 away PL fixtures, including 9 of the last 10, only failing to net @Man City, Sunderland(!!) and Middlesbrough * Leicester have scored in 13 of their last 14 home PL fixtures * However they have only managed 2 clean sheets in their last 9 at home * Leicester have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 6 home PL fixtures * Leicester have won only 3 of their last 9 home PL fixtures although they did beat Spurs 2.1 in their most recent home fixture on Tuesday Final Verdict Burnley have been so profitable for @bobreaksbookies this season and it's hard to ignore them again here with the oddsmakers putting Leicester (3 wins in 12) odds-on 8/11 favourites against a Burnley side that have won 3 of their last 4 on the road and currently sit 8 points ahead of their opponents here. The visitors are in tremendous form, both at home and away from Turf Moor this season and that form has taken them to the lofty heights of 6th place, ahead of Spurs and other more illustrious opponents and I fancy them to avoid defeat here @23/20 against a Leicester side that will have exerted themselves to the maximum in their midweek win over Spurs. Of course, Burnley faced a trip to Bournemouth themselves this week, but they also collected the full points in that fixture and I fancy with both facing a 3rd fixture in 7 days, a share of the spoils could be on the cards here. Leicester have certainly improved under Claude Puel and they will feel they can get a positive result here but considering the recent form, a draw looks the likeliest outcome and I fancy both will score in a low scoring draw. Burnley not to lose @23/20 is my best bet and with the Clarets scoring in 16 of their last 19 on the road, we can be confident of them scoring at least once against a side that has kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 9 at home. Still, Leicester will be buoyed by their midweek victory over Spurs so I fancy them to score as well, a feat they have managed in 14 of their last 15 at home. BTTS is big @1/1 and while I don't expect many goals, I can see both scoring to bring up a 1.1 draw. 15:00 West Bromwich Albion vs Crystal Palace - Prediction 2.1 Best Bets - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @13/8 Key Facts * WBA have seen over 2,5 goals scored in 4 of their last 5 home PL fixtures. 3 of those 4 games also saw BTTS * WBA have failed to win any of their last 6 home PL fixtures with only 1 win coming in their last 11 at the Hawthorns * WBA have drawn 2.2 in 2 of their last 4 home PL fixtures * WBA have failed to win any of their last 12 PL fixtures, drawing 6 and losing 6 * Palace have failed to score in each of their last 9 away PL fixtures * Having lost 8 of their first 9 PL fixtures, Palace have lost only 1 of their last 5 * Palace have drawn 3 of their last 5 PL fixtures * Palace won 2.0 on both of their last 2 trips to face WBA at the Hawthorns Final Verdict 1 week earlier, this fixture wouldn't have been a serious consideration for goals but with Alan Pardew installed as new WBA manager, we can expect some thrills and spills for a West Brom support desperate for some entertainment following the stodginess of the football under recently departed manager, Tony Pulis. Pardew is certainly much more of a risk taker than his predecessor and you would expect a 1st game manager bounce here with the former Newcastle and Crystal Palace boss, boasting a strong record when it comes to turning around the fortunes of ailing sides. In his last job, Pardew lead Palace to a 2.1 win over Spurs and a 3.2 win at Burnley in his first 2 PL fixtures. At Newcastle, he won 3.1 against Liverpool before losing 3.1 at home to Man City. Common theme? goals at both ends with 3 wins in 4. Not bad. While Pardew certainly has his critics, I do expect an upturn for WBA, at least in the short term and it may well be good enough to get the points here but Palace are also improving under Roy Hodgson, although not much in away fixtures, but having scored exactly 2 goals in each of their last 5 visits to the Hawthorns, they will fancy their chances of getting something from this fixture with Pardew sure to line WBA up in a more attacking style. Ultimately, this one is hard to call, A draw would have been the likeliest outcome had Pulis kept his job but with Pardew now in charge, a home win might just be possible. While Palace hasn't scored in many months in away PL fixtures, I do fancy some goals here, based mostly on the Pardew effect, so I'll take a chance on BTTS and over 2.5 goals @13/8 in one of my more adventurous accas on Saturday. 15:00 Everton vs Huddersfield - Prediction 2.0 Best Bets - Everton to win @8/11, Everton to score 2 or more @5/6 Key Facts * Huddersfield have conceded 2, 3, 4 and 5 goals in their last 4 away league fixtures * Huddersfield have conceded 2 goals or more in 5 of their last 6 away league fixtures * Huddersfield failed to score in all 6 of those matches * Huddersfield lost 5 of those 6 matches, picking up just 1 point in a 0.0 draw @Burnley * Everton scored 4 in their midweek win over West Ham * Everton have scored 2 goals or more in 4 of their last 5 home league fixtures and in 12 of their last 17 at Goodison in 2017 * Everton scored 2 goals or more in 4 of their 6 most recent league fixtures Final Verdict Everton will be expectant of collecting the points against a Huddersfield side that have been woeful on the road this season in this the first match in charge for new boss, Sam Allardyce. Big Sam must be delighted that Huddersfield are the visitors for his first match in charge, with the away side struggling badly in each of their last 4 away fixtures in particular. David Wagner's men have lost each of their last 4, conceding 14 in the process and with each fixture producing 1 more goal conceded than the last, things don't seem to be getting bettr for the newly promoted side. Should that symmetry continue, Everton would hit 6 but that seems a tad optimistic. Still, I expect 2 or more for the hosts @5/6 while it would certainly be a surprise if the visitors can pick up anything here, even against a hugely inconsistent Everton side. Indeed, the hosts picked up a more boosting 4.0 win in midweek and with Allardyce making his debut, I expect a solid home win for the Blues with Huddersfield being so poor in recent weeks and Everton looking to continue that midweek return to form. The hosts are 8/11 for the win while they can score 2 or more at attractive 5/6 odds. 17:30 Arsenal vs Man Utd - Prediction 2.0 Best Bets - Arsenal to win @11/8, Arsenal to score 2 or more @6/5 Key Facts * Arsenal have scored 2 goals or more in 13 of their last 14 home league fixtures * Arsenal have won 13 successive home PL fixtures * Arsenal have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 6 home league wins * Arsenal won 2.0 and 3.0 in their last 2 home league meetings with Man Utd * Arsenal scored 2 goals or more in 4 of their last 6 games against Man Utd * Arsenal have only lost 1 of their last 6 meetings with Man Utd * Man Utd have only won 3 of their last 11 away PL fixtures * Over the last 13 months, Man Utd have lost 4 of their 6 away fixtures against the other big 5 in the division (2.0 at Arsenal, 4.0 and 2.0 at Chelsea, 2.1 at Spurs) * They drew 0.0 in the games at Liverpool and Man City * United currently sit 4 points ahead of Arsenal but 8 behind leaders Man City Final Verdict I am loathe to back anything in any Arsenal fixture. They are my bogey team without any doubt. Whenever I expect them to play well, they don't turn up. When I expect them to lose, they turn on the style. Still, they are in tremendous home form and will be confident of following up their stunning performance against Spurs with another victory here against the visiting Man Utd. Surely United will need to come with a certain degree of ambition with an already 8 point gap with Man City not getting any shorter so I expect Jose to only park half a bus in a fixture his side really need to win if they are to maintain genuine title ambitions. With the return of Pogba and Zlatan, United will certainly expect better in the coming weeks but Arsenal are the in-form home side in 2017 and United will need to be at their best if they are to take anything away from London. Indeed, recent meetings have not favoured United with Arsenal winning both of their last two contests at the Emirates and both with a fair degree of comfort so while it might not be easy on Saturday, I do fancy an on-form Arsenal to collect the points @11/8 odds with the Gunners so impressive on their own turf in 2017. The hosts are missing the dangerous Alex Lacazette but Olivier Giroud is a fairly handy replacement, as demonstrated with his 2 goals from the bench during Arsenal's midweek 5.0 thumping of Huddersfield although it may be that former United striker Danny Welbeck is given the chance to lead the line with Welbeck scoring in Arsenal's 2.0 win over United last season. I would like to check the team-news in this one before committing to my final selections as it will be interesting to see if United do really come with genuine ambition to win. Still, I fancy the hosts to get the job done @11/8 and to score 2 or more @6/5. Championship 15:00 Bolton vs Barnsley - Prediction 2.1 Best Bets - BTTS @4/5, Bolton to win @7/5 Key Facts * Bolton have seen BTTS in each of their last 4 home league fixtures * Bolton have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 8 league fixtures * Bolton are unbeaten in their last 4 home league fixtures, winning 2 and drawing 2 * Bolton lost 9 of their first 11 league fixtures but have since lost only 1 of their last 8 * Bolton have only kept 2 clean sheets in their last 20 home league fixtures * Barnsley have seen BTTS in 6 of their last 7 away league fixtures * Barnsley have lost their last 3 league games, failing to score in all 3 fixtures Final Verdict Bolton will fancy their chances of recording a 3rd home win in 5 when they host a struggling Barnsley side that have lost their last 3 without scoring including a midweek 3.0 trouncing at Reading. Indeed with Bolton not involved during the week, they will be the fresher of these two sides and given their recent respective form, Bolton have every chance of winning at a generous 7/5. The hosts have picked up considerably of late and while they still remain bottom, they have gone 4 unbeaten at home, BTTS seems to have a good chance with Bolton seeing that outcome in 67% of home fixtures and Barnsley in 78% of their away fixtures this season but Barnsley's recent goal drought with no goals in their last 3 does raise some concerns with that particular selection. Instead, I'll go for the home win although BTTS @4/5 certainly wouldn't surprise me Championship 15:00 Brentford vs Fulham - Prediction 2.2 Best Bets - BTTS @1/2, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @8/11, Draw @27/10 Key Facts * Brentford have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 9 home league fixtures * Brentford are unbeaten in their last 8 at home although 6 of those 8 games were draws * Brentford have scored in 14 of their last 15 home fixtures, failing to find the net only against league leaders Wolves * Brentford sit 14th in the table, 2 points behind Fulham * Only 6 teams have scored more goals than Brentford this season * Fulham have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of their last 6 away league fixtures * Fulham have seen BTTS in 11 of their last 14 league fixtures * Fulham have scored 2 goals or more in 4 out of 7 away fixtures this season * Fulham have only kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 17 away fixtures Final Verdict Both of these sides know their way to goal but both have also had trouble keeping the ball out at the other end so we should expect goals when they two square off at Brunton Park on Saturday for this usually fiercely contested London derby. Only 2 points separate these two sides and given recent form, BTTS looks likely but is surely a bit short @4/9. I'll try BTTS and over 2.5 goals @8/11 with the hope that price gets a little better in the hours before kick-off. Fulham are in the better form, winning their last 2 but they don't often keep clean sheets on their travels so goals bets are definitely the way to go in this fixture with Brenford fairly prolific at finding the net at home. UK Best Bets Watford vs Spurs - Over 2.5 goals @7/10 Leicester vs Burnley - Burnley not to lose @23/20 Watford vs Spurs - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @6/5 Leicester vs Burnley - BTTS @1/1 Brentford vs Fulham - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @8/11 Everton vs Hudderfield - Everton to score 2 or more @5/6 Other Selections Watford to score 2 or more vs Spurs @9/4 Leicester vs Burnley - Draw @13/5 WBA vs Palace - BTTS and over 2.5 goals @13/8 Bolton vs Barnsley - Bolton to win @7/5 Arsenal to win @11/8 Arsenal to score 2 or more vs Man Utd @6/5 Everton to beat Huddersfield @8/11 Comments are closed.
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