It's the weekend before Christmas, I've worked a 50 hour week and I'm full of the cold so time has been limited this week and as a result i'm focussing on just two games from Saturday's action across Europe. I expect goals in two games from Germany and that's what I've covered today with two extended previews. My key facts are in effect, my justifications for the selections and in both matches, we have a number of solid looking stats that support the selections. Here are my two previews for Saturday... 14:30 Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV Prediction 2.2 Key Facts * Mainz have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 5 of their 6 home league fixtures this season and in 7 of their last 10 since April * Mainz scored 15 of the 24 goals scored in those 5 fixtures. * Mainz have scored 2 or more goals in 5 out of 6 home league fixtures this season. * Mainz have seen BTTS in 7 of their last 9 home fixtures in all competitions * Mainz have lost 4 of their last 5 Bundesliga fixtures, conceding 11 goals in the process * Mainz have kept just 2 clean sheets in their 14 league fixtures this season * Hamburg are unbeaten in their last 4 Bundesliga fixtures, picking up 8 points in the process. They had failed to win any of the previous 10 fixtures, picking up just 2 points in the process * Hamburg have scored 9 goals in their last 5 league fixtures. They failed to score ANY goals in their previous 7 Bundesliga fixtures * Hamburg have kept clean sheets in their last 2 league fixtures. They kept only 1 in the previous 14 Final Verdict Mainz have been reliable in the goals markets in recent weeks and with Hamburg improving rapidly in the last month, I expect some goals and the visitors to come away with a result in a a potentially entertaining contest here. The stats don't make this an obvious selection but Hamburg's recent goalscoring improvements coupled with Mainz's recent defensive downturns lead me to the conclusion that both will score @7/10 while my BTTS and over 2.5 double pays @11/10. Best Bets Hamburg not to lose @19/20 BTTS @7/10 BTTS and over 2.5 goals @11/10 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14:30 Werder Bremen vs FC Cologne Prediction 2.1 Key Facts * Werder Bremen kept only their 3rd clean sheet in their last 51 Bundesliga fixtures in their 1.0 win at Hetha last weekend. * Werder have kept just 1 clean sheet in their last 25 home Bundesliga fixtures * Amazingly, they kept 3 home clean sheets in a row, prior to those 25 fixtures * Werder have conceded a whopping 44 goals in their last 25 home league fixtures * Werder have yet to keep a clean sheet at home this season, conceding 12 goals in 7 home fixtures * Werder have scored in each of their last 19 home league fixtures. They had failed to score in 5 of the previous 6! * Werder have seen BTTS and over 2.5 goals in 10 of their last 11 home league fixtures and in 12 of their 13 most recent league fixtures (home and away) * Werder have seen BTTS in 19 of their last 20 home league fixtures. That's a staggering 95% of all home fixtures seeing BTTS in the last 14 months * Werder have seen BTTS in 18 of their 22 most recent league fixtures. 17 of those 18 also went over 2.5 goals * Koln have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 6 away Bundesliga fixtures. 3 of those also went over 2.5 goals * Koln have won only 1 of their last 5 league fixtures having won 5 of their first 9 * Koln have scored in 9 of their last 13 away league fixtures Final Verdict Koln have gone off the boil lately but Bremen just don't do clean sheets, especially at home and as they are kings of the BTTS market, I am on them again here and I'm taking my two favourite bets with Werder also looking the more likely to edge to victory. Best Bets BTTS @4/6 BTTS and over 2.5 goals @1/1 Werder to win @8/5 Comments are closed.
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