It has been a tremendous week of tipping @ bobreaksbookies and I’m hoping to keep the form going on what looks like a potentially tricky card this weekend. Werder Bremen got the weekend off to a decent start with their 2.2 draw at Frankfurt and that brought home my 17/20 tip on the visitors not to lose but having lead 2.0, they should have claimed the points at 3/1 odds. Still, this was an easy single to cover at half-time with Bremen leading 2.0 . Today, I am focussing on the Premier League and Bundesliga with most of my recent success coming from those two leagues and from now on I will assign a rating from between 1 and 5 stars for all of my bets with 5 stars representing maximum confidence, and 1 being the lowest. Here are Saturday’s (and Friday’s) previews, facts, and best bets! ****I've added a preview for the derby in Spain, Real vs Atletico #BOlieve Eintracht Frankfurt v Werder Bremen - Prediction 0.2 Best Bets - Werder to win @12/5, Werder not to lose @3/4 Implied Probability - Werder to win - 29%, Werder not to lose - 57% Bet confidence - Werder Bremen not to lose @3/4 – 4 stars, Werder to win @12/5 – 2 Stars Key Facts
Final Verdict A fascinating fixture from Germany as Werder Bremen, currently top of the form table (last 6 matches) take on a badly out of sorts Frankfurt side who find themselves bottom of that same form table with just 1 goal and 2 points from their last 8 league fixtures and with Werder 12/5 outsiders to win here, I feel the bookies have potentially misjudged the likelihood of an away win. Frankfurt have really been rotten lately while Werder seem rejuvenated with 6 wins from their last 7 (they had won just 2 of their previous 13) and it’s hard to see them losing here against a side that can’t buy a win lately, or indeed, hardly a goal. Werder don’t have a great record in Frankfurt but that could all change here with the hosts desperately struggling for confidence, a quality in which the visitors seem to possess an abundance of lately, as illustrated in their recent 5.2 thumping of Freiburg last weekend and in their subsequent 3.0 thrashing of Schalke in midweek and I fancy them to come away with another 3 points here against a struggling and out of confidence opponent. It’s my only pick for Friday but Werder look extra solid not to lose @3/4 and definitely have a great chance to win @ ever so tempting !2/5 odds Best Bets – Werder to win @3/1 - Covered @2.0 Werder not to lose @17/20 - WON 12:30 Tottenham vs Watford - Prediction – 2.0 Best Bets - Spurs to win to nil @10/11 Implied Probability - 52% Bet confidence – 2.5 stars Key Facts
Spurs should have far too much for Watford, even without Harry Kane and given both sides recent respective home and away form, I can’t see past a home win with a clean-sheet with Spurs still hot on the heels of Chelsea as we enter the final stretch of the season. Watford will be feeling the effects of a 3rd game in 7 days and having won the previous two, I don’t expect them to have enough strength in depth or quality to stop another home win for a Spurs side that will be buoyed by Chelsea’s home defeat to Palace last weekend and their own subsequent wins at Burnley and their sensational late comeback at Swansea. Best Bets – Spurs to win to nil @10/11 15:00 West Ham vs Swansea - Prediction 2.1 Best Bets - BTTS @4/6, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @21/20 Implied Probability – 66% and 49% Bet Confidence - BTTS - 4 stars, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @ 3 stars Key Facts
Best Bets – BTTS @4/6, BTTS and over 2.5 goals @21/20 15:00 Stoke vs Liverpool - Prediction 1.2 Best Bets - BTTS @4/5 Implied Probability – 55% Bet Confidence - BTTS – 3 stars Key Facts
Best Bets - BTTS @4/5 14:30 Hamburger SV vs Hoffenheim - Prediction 1.1 Best Bets – BTTS @4/6, Draw @9/4 Implied Probability – BTTS @66% Bet confidence – BTTS – 3 Stars, Draw - 1 star Key Facts
Best Bets – BTTS @4/6, Draw @9/4 15:00 West Bromwich Albion vs Southampton - Prediction 2.1 Best Bets - over 2.5 goals @6/5, WBA to win @11/10 Implied Probability – 45% chance (BTTS) 47% chance (WBA win) Bet Confidence – Over 2.5 goals – 1.5 stars, WBA to win - 1,5 stars Key Facts
Final Verdict You wouldn’t bank on goals here but the 6/5 price on over 2.5 goals scored seems overly generous to me, especially considering Saints record on the road with 8 of their last 10 going over. Both sides are safe and this game could go either way. A drab draw or a high-scoring open fixture with both sides looking to draw on impressive recent results and I expect an open contest and given the stats for both sides, their does seem to be a bit of value in that 6/5 price. WBA should be confident of winning, given their terrific home record and with Saints losing more often than not when they travel, you have to back the Baggies @11/10 to claim the spoils. Best Bets - over 2.5 goals @6/5, WBA to win @11/10 14:30 RasenBallsport Leipzig vs Bayer Leverkusen - Prediction 2.1 Best Bets – Over 2.5 goals @8/11 Implied Probability – 58% Bet Confidence – 2.5 stars Key Facts
Best Bets – Over 2.5 goals @8/11 Other selections 17:00 Atalanta vs Sassuolo - Prediction 2.1 Best Bets – Atalanta to win and BTTS @ 15/8 Implied Probability – 35% Bet Confidence –1 star Key Facts
14:30 FC Cologne vs Borussia M.Gladbach - Prediction – 1.1 Best Bet – Draw @11/5 Bet confidence - 1 star 15:15 Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid - Prediction 1.1 Best Bets - Atletico not to lose @7/5, BTTS @7/10 Bet Confidence - Atletico not to lose - 2 Stars, BTTS - 3 Stars Key Facts * Atletico have lost only 1 of their last 7 league meetings with Real Madrid, that a 3.0 reverse in the reverse fixture earlier this season * Atletico have lost only 1 of their last 5 away trips to Real Madrid in all competitions * Atletico have won 8 of their last 10 in La Liga, including each of their last 5, conceding only 1 goal in the process * Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 20 home league fixtures. The last team to beat them was Atletico. Final Verdict Quite simply, the bookies always under-estimate Atletico and I'm backing the visitors to claim a draw or better @7/5 odds with Diego Simeone's side proving the equal of Real in head to head meetings over the past 4 years. Prior to 2013, Atletico had lost 10 successive derbies with Real while they had not won in a remarkable 25 attempts against their more illustrious neighbours in a run stretching back to 1999 but since 2013, all of that has changed. In the last 4 years, Atletico under the charge of the fiery Simeone have continually proved to be at least the match of Real. Indeed, these 2 sides have met 18 times with Atletico coming out on top 7 times to Real's 6 with 5 draws although Real have claimed the spoils in their 2 biggest matches in winning both the 2014 and 2016 Champions Leagues but domestically Atletico have an excellent record and I am backing them here @7/5 not to lose while I also expect BTTS @4/6. 17:30 Bournemouth vs Chelsea - Prediction – 1.2 Chelsea to win and BTTS – 1 Star Bet confidence - 1 star Best Bets (in order of confidence) West Ham vs Swansea – BTTS @4/6 Stoke vs Liverpool – BTTS @4/5 Hamburg vs Hoffenheim – BTTS @4/6 West Ham vs Swansea – BTTS and over 2.5 goals @21/20 RBL vs Leverkusen – Over 2.5 goals @8/11 WBA vs Southampton – Over 2.5 goals @6/5 Real v Atletico - Atletico or draw @7/5 Real v Atletico - BTTS @7/10 Home Wins Werder not to lose @Frankfurt @3/4 - WON Spurs to win to nil @10/11 WBA to beat Southampton @11/10 BTTS and Win Chelsea Atalanta Bayern Munich Draws Koln v Moenchengladbach Hamburg v Hoffenheim Real v Atletico Away Wins Werder to beat Frankfurt @12/5 Comments are closed.
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