Any experienced punter will tell you that the weekend after midweek European competition usually brings about it's fair share of surprise results with many teams, especially those competing in the Europa League suffering what is known in the industry as a "European Hangover" No, not a cynical, dirty, Euro trash version of a silly movie that starred Mike Tyson and a tiger. Can you imagine a european version? Carl Froch and a Cobra? But enough of my nonsense for now, there is a big weekend of action to preview across the continent and while much of my analysis will need to factor in the European games this week, I am sure that there is a lot to sink our teeth into and enjoy.
Last week I really nailed the Bundesliga with 5 out of 6 correct predictions, landing 3 draws and 3 correct scores! Perhaps this week, I will consider a little more staking action on the German top flight having failed to profit from some seriously good predictions. Let us begin in Germany then where we have 6 fixtures again to consider; Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg - Prediction 1.1 - Best Bet - Draw at 15/4 Quite why Bayer are 4/11 odds on favourites is anyones guess. Yes they sit 10 places above their opponents in the league, but when you consider that they have failed to win any of their last 4 at home and with only 4 wins from 11 all season at the Bay arena they are hardly home bankers. 6 draws at home suggests this is a team who does not know how to put away their opponents. Indeed they have failed to beat the likes of Padderborn, Mainz and Werder Bremen at home and in their 4 recent fixtures in Leverkusen, they have failed to beat Dortmund, Wolfsburg, Moenchengladbach and Frankfurt. Of course the home side will be buouyed by their fine win over Atletico Madrid on Wednesday but I feel the effects of that effort will result in them struggling to break down a Freiburg side that are no mugs either with the 11th best away record in the league (defying their 16th position overall) and who with a full week to prepare, should be well set up to deal with Bayer. I won't put the house on it, but a draw at 15/4 looks a fine bet for Bo and much better value than taking the supposed home banker here. Cue a 4.0 home win. Hoffenheim vs Mainz 05 - Prediction 2.2 - Best Bet BTTS- 4/7 BTTS favourites Hoffenheim return to action at home to Mainz in a game that has BTTS written all over it. The Hoff have featured in 8 out of 11 BTTS fixtures at home with Mainz involved in the same amount in their away fixtures and at a 73% hit rate, 4/7 represents a decent price for a bet that looks to have a very good chance of winning. Interestingly, Mainz are unbeaten in 5 visits to Hoffenheim over the past 5 years and while they have only won once away from home all season, they will be optimistic of getting a result here against a team that still leak goals like they are going out of fashion (18 from 11 home games) This could be a really entertaining encounter and while I am not confident enough to back the away win, I am backing BTTS and over 2.5 goals is also worth a pop at odds of 13/20. Hannover 96 vs VfB Stuttgart - Prediction 0.0 - Best Bet - draw 11/5 The form of both coming into this one is shambolic with both sides failing to win in their last 6 fixtures and goals coming at a premium. This fixture has finished 0.0 in Hannover in each of the last 2 seasons and a hat-trick is certainly not out of the question as I expect a low scoring game with a draw being the only reasonable bet you can take from this one with Hannover drawing 3 of their last 6 and Stuttgart 2. Not one to get the juices flowing really and a match I will prefer to avoid. Hertha Berlin vs Augsburg - Prediction 0.2 - Best Bet - Augsburg to win - 6/4 While the Hoffenheim game screamed out goals, this one says quite the opposite with both of these sides rarely involved in BTTS encounters. Augsburg are having a wonderful season and currently sit 5th in the league while Hertha languish in the drop zone and look increasingly likely to drop down a division. Having lost their last 3 at home and without a goal scorer, Hertha are in real trouble and while Augsburg are a real mixed bag away from home (4 wins and 7 losses) I think they can further add to the Capital sides woes. Given that Augsburg either win or lose on the road, and that Hertha have lost their last 3 at home (and 5 of their last 6 overall) I am going to take a chance on an away win here at decent odds of 6/4. Borussia Dortmund vs Schalke 04 - Prediction 1.1 - Best Bet - AVOID Both of these sides lost in the Champions League this week with Schalke beaten comfortably by Real Madrid at home while Dortmund emerged from Turin with a better result, despite a 2.1 loss to Juventus 24 hours later. Clearly with an extra days recovery time, Schalke will be hopeful of taking something from the "ruhr derby" and while Dortmund have won their last 3, it will be a tough ask to make it 4 in this one which is always an extremely competitive and keenly fought fixture. I am really put off by the midweek European involvement for both and would not be surprised if it was 0.0 or 3.3. Had Dortmund had the full week to prepare, I would fancy them for the win but following a hard game in italy, I am not so sure so for that reason, I will probably avoid betting on this one as BTTS is not a particularly regular event for either team. Only 4 out of 10 home games for Dortmund have seen both scoring with only 5 of Schalkes away fixtures seeing that outcome. I think this one is going to be a low scoring draw although I would not be shocked with a 1.0 in either direction. Best avoided for me. Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV - Prediction 2.0 - Best Bet - Eintracht to win at Evens Our final Bundesliga fixture of the day, kicking off at 1830 CET sees Hamburg travel to Frankfurt in a fixture that has yielded BTTS in each of the last 6 seasons in Frankfurt. However, Hamburg are certainly not a BTTS team this seaon with only 1 of their 11 away fixtures going with BTTS and I don't see that changing on Saturday. Eintracht are in pretty good form at home, unbeaten in 5 with 3 wins and they should have enough in their locker to win this one and you have to imagine that Hamburg morale is at a severe low following their club record defeat (8.0) at the hands of Bayern last week. BUNDESLIGA BEST BETS Hoffenheim v Mainz - BTTS @ 4/7 Eintracht Frankurt to beat Hamburg - Evens Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg - Draw at 15/4 Augsburg to beat Hertha - 6/4 Comments are closed.
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