Scotland have rather sensationally climbed to 22nd in the latest month of FIFA's world rankings, a rise of 15 places since last month and up from 72nd place at the end of 2012.
The Scots are unbeaten in their last 5 matches, conceding only 1 goal in away victories in Macedonia, Norway and Poland as well as a home win over Croatia and a scoreless draw with the USA. Under Strachan there is no question that this is a Scots outfit with an entirely different mentality and organisation. Performance levels have risen markedly under his tenure and this is a Scottish side playing with a capability we have not seen in recent years. Firstly, we can actually pass the ball and in the likes of Maloney, Snodgrass and Naismith amongst a whole host of others, we have players cable of hurting the opposition in the final 3rd. In midfield, Scott Brown has continued to grow while our talisman Darren Fletcher has returned to full fitness after a horrible illness. Under Levein, there was no organisation, no self-belief and minimal squad unity. He was hugely out of his depth and Scotland were a shambles. Strachan has straightened the mess out and actually got us looking like a proper international football team. Heady days indeed. It ha been clear for at least 2 years that this group of Scottish players had enough quality to at least compete with the B ranked nations in Europe and finally with a solid manager at the helm this is beginning to happen. 5 matches unbeaten and the positive finish in the last qualifying campaign has given renewed cause for optimisim in Scotland. And rightly so. This is a group which has no world beaters but a whole host of talented, creative and high energy players, particularly in midfield and in the wide areas and our options have not been this strong for the best part of 20 years. In Strachan we have a man capable of leading us to the next European Championships which of course is allowing for the increased number of 23 qualifiers to join France in 2 years time. With that in mind and finally having a solid manager at the helm, combined with a fine blend of younger and more experienced players really beginning to shine under the manager,whisper it...this could finally be our time. No really. It is going to be our moment. Scotland are 2/1 to qualify which is for me, at this early stage, a great price. Of course Germany are going to win the group but then we have Republic of Ireland, Scotland and Poland (potentially Georgia as well) fighting it out for 1 more automatic place and a playoff place. No question, this is our best chance in years. Our group is not formidable (outside of the Germans) and with more places up for grabs, coupled with a fine redheaded manager at the helm, blended with our widening selection pool, this is truly the moment for Scotland to go forward and bloody well qualify for a tournament. It's been far too long. BET 20)
0.75% OF BANKROLL 15 EUROS Confidence rating (1.5 units) Atletico Madrid to Qualify vrs Barcelona 5/4 Bayern and Man Utd BTTS, 5/6 Double Returns 60 Euros Winner, cashed out at 55 BET 21) 0.5% OF BANKROLL 10 EUROS Confidence rating (1 unit) Atletico and Barca to draw 9/4 Manchester United to beat Bayern, on the handicap (plus 2) 11/10 Double Returns 70 euros Lost Total Staked for night 25 euros Total Returned for night 55 euros New cashroll stands at 2519 Firstly, an apology as I made a stupid error tonight in my post. My main bet was indeed for Atletico to Qualify and Bayern and Man Utd both to score and this came home for me but I posted earlier that Man Utd plus 2 was on my main bet. As you know, my main bet will always consist of my strongest and most likely outcomes and btts was indeed a shorter price than the handicap selection which was on my 2nd, less likely bet of Atletico to draw and Utd plus 2. I advised small stakes so hopefully noone is stupid enough to follow my selections (not really) but I will take more care with this in the future. Today I was distracted with a host of minor changes and improvements to the site. But Bo has no excuses it was a bad mistake. But not too costly I hope. Unlucky for United in any case and my faith in Ateltico was rewarded with a dominant display against a Barca side that are a shadow of their great self. On to the Europa League tomorrow where stakes will be small again. After a hard week, tonight's options are limited because of a lack of games but we do have the 2 big European ties to have a small flutter on and I will be taking some of my tips from last night's preview and betting with small stakes.
To explain my handicap bet below, by backing Man Utd to beat Bayern plus 2 goals simply means if they win, draw or even lose only by 1 then the bet comes in and I am not expecting a repeat of the glory of '99 so beautifully captured in the smile of Dwight Yorke but I think they will fight bravely and keep this tie alive until the end of the match and that is why I am backing them on the handicap bet at very decent odds. In Madrid, the more I think about it, the more I can see a draw and 0.0 is certainly plausible. 0.0 would be perfect as it would bring up the draw and my Atletico to qualify bet. Let's hope for something special tonight in terms of action and enjoy the spectacle without too much focus on winning bags of cash! Come on Giggsy! BET 20) 0.75% OF BANKROLL 15 EUROS Confidence rating (1.5 units) Atletico Madrid to Qualify vrs Barcelona 5/4 Bayern and Man Utd BTTS, 5/6 Double Returns 60 Euros BET 21) 0.5% OF BANKROLL 10 EUROS Confidence rating (1 unit) Atletico and Barca to draw 9/4 Manchester United to beat Bayern, on the handicap (plus 2) 11/10 Double Returns 70 euros Last nights Champions League games were stuffed full of delicous cup tie drama with Chelsea deservedly overcoming a negative PSG side while Dortmund put in a rousing display despite falling a goal short as they were edged out 3.2 on aggregate to a Real Madrid side who just didn't show up on the night.
An early missed penalty certainly changed the course of the game in Dortmund but after that Real were second best all night, and with an exasperated Cristiano Ronaldo watching on from the sidelines, they can count them selves very fortunate to emerge from this tie and face a daunting semi final no matter who they are paired with on the evidence of their recent shaky defensive performances. In London it was a deserved victory for Jose Mourinho's men as Demba Ba sealed a late winner for a Chelsea side who were knocking on the door and the wood of the cross bar for the whole of the second half. Again the away side barely showed up and without Ibrahimovic they lacked their star power and seemed content to merely play out a 1.0 defeat. This was always going to be a dangerous manoevour by Blanc and Chelsea were able to control the second half and their winning goal had a feel of inevitablity about it, even if it did come late. Indeed it was a fine moment for the forgotten man Demba Ba as he showed Mourinho a reminder of what he can do if given an opportunity. Ba has a great strikers instinct and his winner was a great moment for a player horribly underused. by Mourinho. Given all the ridiculous talk that he doesn't have any strikers, Ba must be feeling pleased to have proved his point. and Jose could be forgiven for eating some humble pie except this is Jose and he dines only on the pie stuffed full of ego tart. However, Mourinho did get his tactics spot on tonight , and the sight of him running down the side of the pitch brought back lovely memories of that night at Old Trafford 10 years ago (yes 10 years!) when his Porto side but the wind up Fergie's squeaky bum moment with a late winner that sent Jose on the run and Fergies chewing gum to the floor in disgust. Tonight's action in the Champions League promises to be just as engrossing as Man Utd travel to face the reigning champions Bayern and in Spain, Barcelona and Atletico square off for a 4th time this season having played out 3 draws in their previous encounters. Noone has fallen asleep yet despite some fairly ordinary encounters in the league and this one should be nervy and close. Untied face an uphill task following the 1.1 draw in Manchester last week but are expected to name Wayne Rooney in their starting line up but they will be without the injured Van Persie and the cup tied Juan Mata. Meanwhile Bayern are coming off their worst run in 2 years as they are without a win in their last 3 matches, however they rested the majority of their first 11 in the weekend defeat at Augsburg and should be well prepard for this crucial encounter in Bavaria. My instinct here is that Bayern should have too much quality at home but I expect a similar pattern to last week with United defending deep and looking to hit Bayern on the counter and if they can maintain their discipline, and keep Ribery, Robben et al at bay early doors, this tie could really be a lot closer than people expect. Bayern are a very short 1/4 to win the 2nd leg. United might not win but can they score? quite possibly and BTTS pays a very decent even Money while Man Utd plus 2 goals on the handicap is 11/10 and I feel if they are to lose, it could only be by the 1 goal. I expect a valiant display from Moyes men but with Bayern edging through by 1. For goalscorers, Toni Kroos is a player I expect to have a significant role to play for Bayern tomorrow and he is 7/4 to score at anytime. For United, Rooney is 11/4 to hit the back of the net at anytime. Perhaps Danny Welbeck can make up for his miss at Old Trafford and he can be backed at 4/1 to do just that. In the other tie of the night, in Madrid, it looks sure to be a close and low scoring affair again. Much will depend on the fitness of Diego Costa who is rated highly doubtful and Barcelona will be greatly relieved if that is the case. Pique and Valdes are missing for a Barca side who have been less than convincing in recent months despite the return of Lionel Messi. My feeling for this tie, is that this could well be another 1.1 draw with the sides locked together after 90 minutes and the match heading to extra time and possibly even penalties. My gut feeling is that we will see Atletico emerge as the surprise semi finalists and are 5/4 to qualify overall and 12/5 to win without the need for any extra time. In the goalscorer market, Messi of course cannot be ignored and his price of even money is very tempting given that he is usually at odds of 1/2 at best to find the net on any other occasion but this match is going to be tight and the draw could well be the play. Under 2.5 goals also pays at 4/5. Two cracking if unpredictable cup ties tomorrow and stakes will be low but let's hope for some drama and maybe a little relief for that poor old Scot, Davie Moyes. POSSIBLE BETS FOR TOMORROW ATLETICO TO QUALIFY 5/4 BARCELONA AND ATLETICO UNDER 2.5 GOALS, 4/5 ATLETICO AND BARCELONA TO DRAW AFTER 90 MINUTES 2/1 MESSI TO SCORE ANYTIME EVEN MONEY MAN UTD PLUS 2 GOALS TO WIN, 11/10 MAN UTD AND BAYERN BTTS EVEN MONEY TONI KROOS TO SCORE ANYTIME, 7/4 BET 17) STAKE 70 EUROS 3.5% OF BANKROLL 7 UNITS CHELSEA V PSG BTTS 8/11 DORTMUND V REAL BTTS 2/5 Double Returns 168 euros LOST BET 18) STAKE 30 EUROS 1.5% OF BANKROLL 3 UNITS Chelsea to score 2 or more goals 5/6 Bournemouth v Reading BTTS 8/11 Double Returns 95 euros WINNER BET 19) STAKE 30 EUROS 1.5% OF BANKROLL 3 UNITS Real to score 2 or more goals 8/!1 Chelsea to win 5/6 DOUBLE RETURNS 94 EUROS LOST TOTAL STAKED 130 EUROS TOTAL RETURNED 95 EUROS NEW CASHROLL STANDS AT 2489 Again a disappointing night where Real and PSG did not show up and a missed penalty in Germany at 0.0 for real cost us this chance to win bet 19. The Championship was full of goals and my top selections of Blackburn, Chelsea, Derby and Watford all came home convicingly. But this remains a disappointing night and with tomorrow's Champions league matches looking hard to call, stakes will be minimal for the final bet of the week. A lot of thought needs to go into improving our recent results. BET 17)
STAKE 70 EUROS 3.5% OF BANKROLL 7 UNITS CHELSEA V PSG BTTS 8/11 DORTMUND V REAL BTTS 2/5 Double Returns 168 euros BET 18) STAKE 30 EUROS 1.5% OF BANKROLL 3 UNITS Chelsea to score 2 or more goals 5/6 Bournemouth v Reading BTTS 8/11 Double Returns 94 euros BET 19) STAKE 30 EUROS 1.5% OF BANKROLL 3 UNITS Real to score 2 or more goals 8/!1 Chelsea to win 5/6 DOUBLE RETURNS 94 EUROS A big night of action tomorrow with the 2 Champions League Quarter Final ties in Dortmund and London, and a full Championship card in England to look at as well.
Firstly to Dortmund where Borussia will need to throw the kitchen sink at Real Madrid if they are to overturn the 3.0 first leg deficit suffered last week, and this looks sure to be an open game. Klopp's men are certainly capable of scoring 1 or even 2 with top scorer Robert Lewandowski returning from suspension, but surely the tie is beyond them. Madrid will look to score to completely kill off the tie and I can see both sides scoring and over 2.5 goals as highly likely outcomes for this tie. Oh and Bale to score at 9/4 is a tempter. In London, Chelsea have it all to do if they are to overcome a 3,1 first leg defeat in Paris to Laurent Blanc's PSG and this second leg could really be a thriller. I fancy Chelsea to certainly give it a good go tomorrow night and with their formidable home record they are likely to win the night if not the tie. Chelsea to win is 5/6 while btts pays at the same price. PSG will be without the ego of Zlatan, while the other humble one Mourinho has his own problems to contend with in the shape of his misfiring strikers. Eto'o is not certain to be fit for this one. and if the pour soul Fernando Torres is forced to start then this tie could be as good as over. Chelsea need the home form of Eto'o and if he starts I fancy Chelsea to edge this 2.1 but to ultimately fall short of qualification. I am certainly not ruling it out however and I think BTTS is the logical choice again and the 5/6 price seems generous. Perhaps the bookies expect a 2.0 turnaround for Chelsea but I don't see it like that, and Lavezzi could be a good choice at 9/4 to score for the visitors while an on form Willian could be considered for Chelsea at 11/4. In the Championship in England, another BTTS selection comes in the form of Bournemouth and Reading with a lot at stake for both teams. The Cherries are the form side in this division and are mounting a late playoff challenge, and sit only 5 points behind a Reading side, that have been very good on the road lately and who can be relied upon to make this a tough test for the hosts. This could be a real cracker of a cup style play off match, and I fancy more than 3.5 goals possibly. but i will stick to the simple BTTS which pays at 4/5 TOP HOMES CHELSEA WATFORD BLACKBURN TOP AWAYS REAL MADRID DERBY ROTHERHAM BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE CHELSEA V PSG DORTMUND V R MADRID BOURNEMOUTH V READING WIGAN V MILLWALL FOREST V SHEF WED ANYTIME GOALSCORERS BALE LAVEZZI RHODES BO'S BONKERS BET BOURNEMOUTH 2 V 2 READING 14/1 TONIGHT'S SELECTIONS
BET 14) STAKE - 35 EUROS PERCENTAGE OF BANKROLL STAKED IS 1.75 % UNIT VALUE IS 3.5 POINTS Benfica minus 1 goal to beat Rio Ave. Odds - 4/5 Tottenham vrs Sunderland, BTTS (Both teams to score) Odds - 4/5 Total Staked - 35 Euros Total Potential Returns - 110 Euros WINNER - RETURNED 110 EUROS BET 15) STAKE 10 EUROS PERCENTAGE OF BANKROLL STAKED IS 0.5% UNIT VALUE IS 1 POINT Aberdeen to beat Hibs (I know!) even money Levante not to lose to Athletic Bilbao 10/11 LOST Total Staked - 10 Euros Potential Returns 38.50 Euros BET 16) STAKE - 5 EUROS PERCENTAGE OF BANKROLL STAKED IS 0.25% UNIT VALUE IS 0.5 POINTS Sunderland to beat Spurs - 11/2 Genoa v Milan - draw 11/4 Total Staked - 5 euros Total Potential Returns - 121 Euros LOST Total Staked for night - 50 euros Total returned for night - 110 euros NEW BANKROLL STANDS AT 2526 EUROS Back to winning ways with our main bet of the evening coming in rather easily. Aberdeen also went on the beat Hibs as predicted but Levante let me down for the 2nd prize of the night. It looked good for my Sunderland tip early doors but they fall apart like a deck of cards in the second half. No matter it was a small punt and they got the goal we needed for our btts selection. A solid night's work overall with Tuesday and Wednesday providing our big end to the week. TONIGHT'S SELECTIONS
BET 14) STAKE - 35 EUROS PERCENTAGE OF BANKROLL STAKED IS 1.75 % UNIT VALUE IS 3.5 POINTS Benfica minus 1 goal to beat Rio Ave. Odds - 4/5 Tottenham vrs Sunderland, BTTS (Both teams to score) Odds - 4/5 Total Staked - 35 Euros Total Potential Returns - 110 Euros BET 15) STAKE 10 EUROS PERCENTAGE OF BANKROLL STAKED IS 0.5% UNIT VALUE IS 1 POINT Aberdeen to beat Hibs (I know!) even money Levante not to lose to Athletic Bilbao 10/11 Total Staked - 10 Euros Potential Returns 38.50 Euros BET 16) STAKE - 5 EUROS PERCENTAGE OF BANKROLL STAKED IS 0.25% UNIT VALUE IS 0.5 POINTS Sunderland to beat Spurs - 11/2 Genoa v Milan - draw 11/4 Total Staked - 5 euros Total Potential Returns - 121 Euros BANKROLL STANDS AT 2416 PRE GAME. GOOD LUCK!! To enable some of our less experienced readers to fully understand my staking plan, units, percentages etc, I will attempt to explain it in layman's terms and hopefully this will make the site a little more accessible. So to recap so far, we began this process with a bankroll (a pot of money) starting at 2000 euros and the plan is to bet a percentage of our bankroll every day on football related bets. The key to remember is that we began with 2000 euros and the bankroll currently stands at 2466 euros which represents a a very decent return so far on what we had to begin with. On any given day, we will never bet more than 10-12% of our starting bankroll (2000 euros) and rarely more than 4% on any bet. It is important not to alter the bankroll when calculating a percentage to stake on any given bet. It will always be with my 2000 euro bankroll and not the bankroll as it currently stands. For example, 5% of 2000 euros is 100 euros. 5% of 2500 euros is 125 euros. No matter how much I have in my bankroll, my percentage bet will always be from the starting bankroll and not the new figure. IE DO NOT INCREASE YOUR STAKES DEPENDING ON LOSSES OR WINNERS With regards to the units, this is just a gauge at how confident I am with the bet. I will show you a simple example below and attempt to add more information to the site to help those struggling with the concept. I will also adjust my layout to make it more user friendly and will be adding descriptions of my favourite bets in due course. BET 1) (THIS IS AN EXAMPLE) STAKE - 20 EUROS PERCENTAGE OF BANKROLL STAKED IS 1% UNIT VALUE - 2 POINTS (1 BEING MY LEAST CONFIDENT BET, 10 BEING MY MOST CONFIDENT) LIVERPOOL TO BEAT MAN CITY - ODDS ARE 2/1 EVERTON TO BEAT WEST BROM - ODDS ARE 1/2 TOTAL STAKED - 20 EUROS TOTAL TO BE RETURNED - 90 EUROS So it's quite simple really, you need a bankroll, you need to know what you are betting on and you need to understand there are no guarantees in life, good days and bad days but ultimately, we are in profit after 3 weeks and long may it continue A big game for Sunderland tonight sees them travel to London to face the hapless Tim Sherwood and his merry band of expensive misfits at White Hart Lane in what is a vital match for the away side as they look to claw themselves out of relegation difficulty.
Tottenham have been a shambles recently with seemingly little in the way of tactics or motivation playing any part in their recent displays and I would not be at all surprised to see Sunderland emerge with the three points tonight and they can be backed at pretty generous odds of 11/2. Alternatively you can back them at odds of 7/5 not to lose and this really looks a decent bet. However Sunderland's recent form would suggest an away win is unlikely and while Spurs have been awful lately, Sunderland are currently bottom of the division and can hardly be backed with confidence but I have a feeling this could be a 1.1 result and so btts at 4/5 is also a contender to be on my final predictions. Spurs injury list is lengthy and Sunderland's need for points is huge and it may just be that the away side have enough about them to cause an upset. In Italy, Milan travel to Genoa in what is usually a tight and low scoring affair. History and form suggests under 2.5 goals and with Milan improving a touch recently, they could emerge with the 3 points but at odds of only evens, I would find it hard to back them to win. Btts at 5/6 looks a better option as 1.1 could well be on the cards. In Portugal, a rampant Benfica side play host to Rio Ave as they look to maintain their advantage at the summit of the Portuguese Super Liga. Benfica have been the model of consistency this season and have won each of their last 6 home games to 0 with 5 of the 6 being by more than 1 goal, and victory here will see them push 7 ahead of rivals Sporting Lisbon. History (they have scored 15 in 3 home games against Rio Ave in the last 2 years) and the form as detailed above suggest that Benfica should win this with a goal to spare, and quite probably with a clean sheet so I will be backing them at -1 at odds of 4/5 in Scotland, Aberdeen travel to a rotten Hibs side where they should pick up the points at even money but as we know, Scottish football is hard to predict at the best of times and is generally rubbish, so I think we will leave this one to the side and focus on the three games mentioned. I will post my final tips shortly and will attempt to do so with a little more clarity to help those who are having trouble understanding just how it is that BO BREAKS THE BOOKIES! GOOD LUCK TONIGHT Yes my tips were like Arsenals defence and things can only get better as Sunday was not the best day with Atalanta and Hoffenheim letting me down quite badly. Can Arsenal hold on to 4th place? Can Bo get back on track and smash the bookies ? Below are my results for yesterday in all their "glory"
BET 9) 4$ of bankroll, 8 units, 80 euros Hoffenheim at Hertha Berlin, over 2.5 goals 1/2 FINAL SCORE 1.1 Atalanta to beat Sassuolo 8/11 LOST 2.0 LOST DOUBLE RETURNS 205 EUROS BET 10) 2.5% OF BANKROLL, 5 UNITS, 50 EUROS HOFFENHEIM TO SCORE 2 OR MORE GOALS, EVEN MONEY (FINAL TALLY OF 1) VITESSE V AJAX, BTTS, 1/2 (FINAL SCORE 1.1) DOUBLE RETURNS 150 EUROS LOST (HOWEVER WITH THE AJAX BTTS COMING IN EARLIER, I WAS ABLE TO COVER THIS BET AFTER HOFFENHEIM SCORED AFTER ONLY 30 MINUTES. THIS ENABLED ME TO GET MY STAKE BACK. BET 11) 1.5% OF BANKROLL, 3 UNITS, 30 EUROS TREBLE RETURNS 115 EUROS WEST HAM V LIVERPOOL, BTTS 8/13 (FINAL SCORE 1.2 LIVERPOOL) EINTRACHT BRAUSCHWEIG V HANNOVER, EINTRACHT TO WIN (DRAW NO BET OPTION) 4/5 (FINAL SCORE 2.0) ATALANTA TO BEAT SASSUOLLO, DRAW NO BET 1/3 (LOST 2..0) LOST A real sickener here as Eintracht cruised to victory and Liverpool did the business as expected with btts but Atalanta let me down big time with their shock home loss to bottom of the table Sassuollo. This was an Atalanta side who had won 6 on the bounce against an injury ridden side who were on a terrible run of form. Sometimes the stats just don't work out. BET 12) 0.5% OF BANKROLL, 1 UNIT, 10 EUROS HOFFENHEIM TO WIN AND BTTS, 7/2 FINAL SCORE 1.1 LIVERPOOL TO WIN AND BTTS 8/5 FINAL SCORE 2.1 LIVERPOOL DOUBLE RETURNS 117 EUROS LOST So close with only 1 goal needed in Germany from the Hoff and I would have been 217 euros richer today. BET 13) 0.5% OF BANKROLL, 1 UNIT, 10 EUROS Herha v Hoffenheim, goal before 24 minutes, 5/6 Everton v Arsenal, draw 11/5 EINTRACHT BRAUSCHWEIG V HANNOVER, btts 8/13 TREBLE RETURNS 90 EUROS LOST TOTAL STAKED FOR DAY 190 TOTAL RETURNED 60 NEW BANKROLL STANDS AT 2466 It was our worst day yesterday and yet 1 more goal from Hoffenheim (who hit the cross bar in the final minutes) would have made it a good day even with the Atalanta let down. Onwards and upwards. A big night of action tomorrow with the 2 Champions League Quarter Final ties in Dortmund and London, and a full Championship card in England to look at as well.
Firstly to Dortmund where Borussia will need to throw the kitchen sink at Real Madrid if they are to overturn the 3.0 first leg deficit suffered last week, and this looks sure to be an open game. Klopp's men are certainly capable of scoring 1 or even 2 with top scorer Robert Lewandowski returning from suspension, but surely the tie is beyond them. Madrid will look to score to completely kill off the tie and I can see both sides scoring and over 2.5 goals as highly likely outcomes for this tie. Oh and Bale to score at 9/4 is a tempter. In London, Chelsea have it all to do if they are to overcome a 3,1 first leg defeat in Paris to Laurent Blanc's PSG and this second leg could really be a thriller. I fancy Chelsea to certainly give it a good go tomorrow night and with their formidable home record they are likely to win the night if not the tie. Chelsea to win is 5/6 while btts pays at the same price. PSG will be without the ego of Zlatan, while the other humble one Mourinho has his own problems to contend with in the shape of his misfiring strikers. Eto'o is not certain to be fit for this one. and if the pour soul Fernando Torres is forced to start then this tie could be as good as over. Chelsea need the home form of Eto'o and if he starts I fancy Chelsea to edge this 2.1 but to ultimately fall short of qualification. I am certainly not ruling it out however and I think BTTS is the logical choice again and the 5/6 price seems generous. Perhaps the bookies expect a 2.0 turnaround for Chelsea but I don't see it like that, and Lavezzi could be a good choice at 9/4 to score for the visitors while an on form Willian could be considered for Chelsea at 11/4. In the Championship in England, another BTTS selection comes in the form of Bournemouth and Reading with a lot at stake for both teams. The Cherries are the form side in this division and are mounting a late playoff challenge, and sit only 5 points behind a Reading side, that have been very good on the road lately and who can be relied upon to make this a tough test for the hosts. This could be a real cracker of a cup style play off match, and I fancy more than 3.5 goals possibly. but i will stick to the simple BTTS which pays at 4/5 Unfortunately the Championship has produced less goals this season and even more unpredictability than normal and tomorrow's fixtures are particularly tricky while the seconds legs of the European ties are poised in a manner that leads me to believe goals will be coming tomorrow. I expect goals at every end and TOP HOMES CHELSEA WATFORD BLACKBURN TOP AWAYS REAL MADRID DERBY ROTHERHAM BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE CHELSEA V PSG DORTMUND V R MADRID BOURNEMOUTH V READING WIGAN V MILLWALL FOREST V SHEF WED ANYTIME GOALSCORERS BALE LAVEZZI RHODES BO'S BONKERS BET BOURNEMOUTH 2 V 2 READING 14/1 BET 9) 4$ of bankroll, 8 units, 80 euros
Hoffenheim at Hertha Berlin, over 2.5 goals 1/2 Atalanta to beat Sassuolo 8/11 DOUBLE RETURNS 205 EUROS BET 10) 2.5% OF BANKROLL, 5 UNITS, 50 EUROS HOFFENHEIM TO SCORE 2 OR MORE GOALS, EVEN MONEY VITESSE V AJAX, BTTS, 1/2 DOUBLE RETURNS 150 EUROS BET 11) 1.5% OF BANKROLL, 3 UNITS, 30 EUROS WEST HAM V LIVERPOOL, BTTS 8/13 EINTRACHT BRAUSCHWEIG V HANNOVER, EINTRACHT TO WIN (DRAW NO BET OPTION) 4/5 ATALANTA TO BEAT SASSUOLLO, DRAW NO BET 1/3 TREBLE RETURNS 115 EUROS BET 12) 0.5% OF BANKROLL, 1 UNIT, 10 EUROS HOFFENHEIM TO WIN AND BTTS, 7/2 LIVERPOOL TO WIN AND BTTS 8/5 DOUBLE RETURNS 117 EUROS BET 13) 0.5% OF BANKROLL, 1 UNIT, 10 EUROS Herha v Hoffenheim, goal before 24 minutes, 5/6 Everton v Arsenal, draw 11/5 EINTRACHT BRAUSCHWEIG V HANNOVER, btts 8/13 TREBLE RETURNS 90 EUROS No time for a big write up today unfortunately but hopefully some wins can be found for us.
BET 5) 2.5% 0F BANKROLL 50 EUROS NURNBERG V B MOENCHENGLADBACH BTTS 4/7 SCHALKE V WERDER BTTS 1/2 DOUBLE RETURNS 115 EUROS LOST (HOWEVER, WITH 3 OUT OF 4 GOALS REQUIRED SCORED AFTER 30 MINUTES, I WAS ABLE TO COVER MY STAKE) BY BETTING ON NO GOAL FOR NURNBERG. NET GAIN 0 Bet 6) 2.5% of bankroll, 5 units, 50 euros DORTMUND V WOLFSBURG BTTS 4/7 HEERENVEEN V PSV OVER 2,5 goals 4/9 DOUBLE RETURNS 110 EUROS WINNER RETURNED 110 EUROS BET 7) 1.5% OF BANKROLL, 30 EUROS MAN UTD TO BEAT NEWCASTLE 11/10 BLACKBURN V IPSWICH BTTS 5/6 DOUBLE RETURNS 120 EUROS LOST BET 8) 0.5% OF BANKROLL, 1O EUROS DONCASTER TO BEAT BIRMINGHAM 17/10 REAL SOCIEDAD V REAL MADRID BTTS 4/7 BAYERN MUNICH BTTS 5/6 TREBLE RETURNS 80 EUROS LOST TOTAL STAKED 165 TOTAL RETURNED 185 NEW CASHROLL STANDS at 2596 Not a great day but i'm hopeful tomorrow will be much better. BET 4) 2% OF BANKROLL, 40 EUROS, 4 UNITS
Leicester to beat Sheffield Wednesday 19/40 Hamburg BTTS 8/13 Double Returns 95 euros Winner - Cashed out for 82 euros with 20 minutes to go with the Hamburg result secured and Leicester 2.1 up. It is a no brainer in this situation to cash out with double my staked returned. NEW CASHROLL STANDS AT 2576 EUROS Just a couple of interesting games tonight for us to focus on with Hamburg entertaining Leverkusen and Leicester taking on Sheffield Wednesday.
Short and sweet. Goals in Germany (previous meeting ended 5.3 and both are very prolific in this market) and a home win for Premiership bound Leicester will do me nicely. Not going too crazy before tomorrow's action however. BET 4) 2% OF BANKROLL, 40 EUROS, 4 UNITS Leicester to beat Sheffield Wednesday 19/40 Hamburg BTTS 8/13 Double Returns 95 euros It's Europa League action tonight and that can only mean one thing....low stakes!
A notoriously difficult competition to predict, this is a tournament best avoided but as we have reached the quarter final stage, we are left with some decent looking ties tonight along with the rather decent Andrea Pirlo. Firstly in France, Juventus travel to take on Lyon in the Stade Gerland in what should be a fairly close affair. Lyon are strong at home but are certainly not the force of yesteryear and are unlikely to win this game against a strong Juventus outfit who have effectively wrapped up Seria A and have full focus on reaching the final in this competition, set to be hosted at their home in Turin. A draw could be on the cards but I fancy Juventus to score as they almost always do (44 of last 45 matches) and with Lyon scoring in 19 out of 20 home matches this season, 1-1 looks to be the play. Btts is a very decent 11/10 but make no mistake, Juventus want this trophy badly and with Pirlo pulling the strings, it would be a shock to see them lose here. Benfica travel to Holland to take on AZ Alkmaar and I expect them to get a couple of goal in Holland to possibly edge out their hosts 2.0 or 2.1. Btts is 4/5 but I may well take a look at Benfica to get 2 or more. In Switzerland Baste will look to continue their fine run against an inconsistent Valencia side who are strong in this competition, unbeaten in their last 9. Again a close affair is expected and I would not be surprised to see this finish 1.1 as well. Btts is 8/11 Finally in Portugal, Porto host Sevilla in what should be another close encounter between two former, recent winners of this competition. Porto are strong at home and Sevilla are not the best travelers while both have been plagued with inconsistency this season so again, it's not easy to predict but I fancy Porto to edge this one tonight with Sevilla grabbing an away goal. 2.1 is my call and btts is 4/5, Stakes will be kept to a minimum tonight and I will be readying myself for a big weekend instead. Predictions Lyon 1 v 1 Juventus AZ 1 V 2 Benfica Porto 2 v 1 Sevilla Basel 1 v 1 Valencia BET 2) 0.5% OF BANKROLL, 1 UNIT, 10 EUROS PORTO V SEVILLA, BTTS, 8/11 BASEL V VALENCIA BTTS 4/5 LYON V JUVENTUS BTTS 11/10 TREBLE RETURNS 65 EUROS BET 3) 0.5% OF BANKROLL, 1 UNIT, 10 EUROS BENFICA TO BEAT AZ AND BTTS 3/1 PORTO TO BEAT SEVILLA 21/20 DOUBLE RETURNS 84 EUROS BANKROLL STANDS AT 2534 EUROS PRE GAME RESULTS BET 1) 2% OF BANKROLL, 4 UNITS, 40 EUROS
USA TO BEAT MEXICO 11/8 RETURNS 97.50 Winner = Cashed out at halftime for 82 euros Well, this turned out to be a great bet and a great decision at half time to cash out(or cover). With USA leading comfortably 2.0 at halftime, the option to cashout for 82.50 should never be ignored and so it proved with Mexico hitting back to a 2.2 draw. It is vital for bets such as these to cash out or cover depending on the unfolding scenario. Here with USA leading 2.0, the bookies were highly doubtful of a Mexico comeback so my bet was easy to cover. You have 2 options that are basically the same. To cash out is the simple option but sometimes they do not offer this for whatever reason so the other option which is always there is to cover the other 2 outcomes possible. At halftime, USA were 2.0 ahead and you could get 6/1 on a Mexico draw or win. Essentially this means you only to put on about 15 euros to cover all scenarios, thus guaranteeing profit. As the cash out option was available, this was the simpler solution and gives us a winning start to the week. NEW BANKROLL STANDS AT 2554 EUROS ahhhh the World Cup...only 2 months away and those long summer nights watching endless World Cup encounters in Brasil are almost here.
My plans are set. In something harder than stone. New TV, summer nights on my terrace in Barcelona and cashing in on some glorious World Cup bets. Who's going to win it? The toughest question to begin with. Brazil are favourites for obvious reasons and Germany, Spain and Argentina would appear to offer the biggest challenge while the likes of France, Portugal, Uruguay and Italy cannot be discounted while Colombia, Chile and Belgium will fulfil the role of the "dark horses". Prices Brazil 3/1 Argentina 4/1 Germany 11/2 Spain 7/1 Belgium 14/1 France 22/1 Uruguay 25/1 Netherlands 28/1 England 33/1 My feeling at this early stage is that Brazil or Germany will be the strongest nations and with home advantage it would be hard to go against Brasil but the value bet for me is with Germany at 11/2. Italy at 25/1 also represents some value and Chile at 40/1 will certainly be fun to watch. Winner - Brazil 3/1 or Germany 11/2 Dark Horse - Chile 40/1 Top Goalscorer? Always a fun market and history suggests the favourite rarely wins although Germany have won the award in the last 2 tournaments through Miroslave Klose and Thomas Muller. Leo Messi is the favourite at 15/2 but there are many contenders for this prize and here are some of my favorites Neymar 12/1 Aguero 16/1 Muller 28/1 Fred 33/1 (I was on Mr Fred in the Confederations Cup and this is a super price for a centre forward likely to start for the hosts and favourites) Hazard 80/1 (Great price if a little unlikely) Prices are already listed for all of the first round games and are likely to change markedly both pre and during the tournament and some of the early prices really stand out. If you fancy trying an early acca, i like the look of these for the first week. Chile to beat Australia 1/2 Uruguay to beat Costa Rica 1/3 Belgium to beat Algeria 4/11 Colombia to beat Greece 4/6 Acca pays 4.5/1 3RD WEEK IN THE SERIES BEGINS
BET 1) 2% OF BANKROLL, 4 UNITS, 40 EUROS USA TO BEAT MEXICO 11/9 BET 14) 4% OF BANKROLL, 8 UNITS, 80 EUROS
HERACLES V FEYENOORD, BTTS 1/2 YES REAL MADRID TO SCORE 2 OR MORE GOALS 1/3 YES DOUBLE RETURNS 160 EUROS WINNER BET 15) 2 % OF BANKROLL 4 UNITS, 40 EUROS UTRECHT V CAMBUUR BTTS 4/7 NO REAL MADRID TO BEAT DORTMUND 4/11 YES DOUBLE RETURNS 85 EUROS LOST BET 16) 1% OF BANKROLL, 2 UNITS, 20 EUROS REAL MADRID -1 TO BEAT DORTMUND 4/5 YES TWENTE V ADO DEN HAAG, SECOND HALF TO BE HIGHER SCORING HALF, 19/20 NO DOUBLE RETURNS 70 EUROS LOST BET 17) 0.5 % OF BANKROLL, 1 UNIT, 10 EUROS BALE TO SCORE ANYTIME 13/10 YES IBRAHIMOVIC TO SCORE ANYTIME 6/4 NO DOUBLE RETURNS 57.50 LOST TOTAL STAKED 150 EUROS TOTAL RETURNED 160 EUROS NEW BANKROLL IS 2512 Well, another night of near misses and typically it was red cards that curtailed a night that could have been so much better. Firstly, the double at evens in my first bet cruised home to guarantee the profit and my write up on Real Madrid and Gareth Bale all came to fruition in the opening 20 minutes, but it was in my other 3 bets where we just did not carry any luck. Firstly, in Utrecht where Cambuur were reducted to 10 men with more than 30 minutes still to play and unfortunately could not get the goal back we needed as they went down 1.0. In my next bet, where I required more 2nd half goals than in the first at Twente was riddled with frustration. 2 goals disallowed in the 2nd half and 2 red cards for Twente hurt our chances and the match finished 1.1 Finally, as mentioned earlier Gareth Bale netted but out good friend Zlatan was injured after 65 minutes and this after PSG were denied what looked like a good appeal for a penalty which of course Zlatan would have taken. So overall a lot of misfortune and the only comfort is that even in a day of frustration, we still emerged in profit and sit 512 euros up from our initial stake. BET 10) 3% OF BANKROLL, 6 UNITS, 60 EUROS
SOUTHPORT (PLUS 1) TO BEAT BRAINTREE 2/5 WIGAN V LEICESTER BTTS 8/11 DOUBLE RETURNS 144 EUROS BET 11) 4% OF BANKROLL, 8 UNITS, 80 EUROS MAN UTD V BAYERN, BTTS 5/6 RETURNS 145 EUROS BET 12) 1% 0F BANKROLL, 3 UNITS, 30 EUROS SOUTHPORT TO BEAT BRAINTREE 13/10 BARCELONA V ATLETICO BTTS, 5/6 DOUBLE RETURNS 125 EUROS BET 13) 1.5% OF BANKROLL, 3 UNITS, 30 EUROS Bayern to beat Man utd 1/2 Barcelona to beat Ateltico 3/5 Dumbarton to beat Morton evens Treble returns 144 euros TOTAL STAKED WAS 200 EUROS TOTAL RETURNED WAS 145 NEW BANKROLL STANDS AT 2502 Well, it was a disappointing night with Southport letting me down hugely. Unfortunately this was a tip sourced online and was down to the fact Southport had one their last 5 at home and Braintree were in the end of an incredible run of fixtures (9 in 21 days) with tonights their 4 in 8 days. However the script was torn up as Southport were smashed 4.0. Goodnight Vienna. My write up on the Man Utd game was surprisingly accurate and likewise my thoughts on the Barca game. I am just disappointed i did not add my btts in the camp Nou to the one in Manchester and we would have had a day of profit. Onwards and upwards and tomorrow night gives us two more Champions League ties to think about. FInal bets of the week, 2 more to come and we need a victory to give BET 10) 3% OF BANKROLL, 6 UNITS, 60 EUROS
SOUTHPORT (PLUS 1) TO BEAT BRAINTREE 2/5 WIGAN V LEICESTER BTTS 8/11 DOUBLE RETURNS 144 EUROS BET 11) 4% OF BANKROLL, 8 UNITS, 80 EUROS MAN UTD V BAYERN, BTTS 5/6 RETURNS 145 EUROS BET 12) 1% 0F BANKROLL, 3 UNITS, 30 EUROS SOUTHPORT TO BEAT BRAINTREE 13/10 BARCELONA V ATLETICO BTTS, 5/6 DOUBLE RETURNS 125 EUROS BET 13) 1.5% OF BANKROLL, 3 UNITS, 30 EUROS Bayern to beat Man utd 1/2 Barcelona to beat Ateltico 3/5 Dumbarton to beat Morton evens Treble returns 144 euros MAN UTD TO BE APRIL FOOLS??
It's crunch time in the Champions League as we head into the Quarter Finals and It's hard to see past Bayern Munich tonight and as such the bookies have reflected this by pricing Utd at 13/2 to win tonight's match (subsequently fluctuated down to 11/2)which is the longest price Man Utd have been at home in living memory and surely suggests an away winner is a banker...or is it? You would have to be an April fool to think Utd are going to win tonight but I am not so sure it will be the walk in the park for Bayern that everyone is expecting. Firstly, as Ryan Giggs was quick to remind yesterday's assembled press, this is still Manchester United at home in the Champions League and despite a season of woefully inadequate form, you cannot yet discount this United team from at least making a good game of it tonight. Bayern have gone 53 Bundesliga matches without defeat, dropping just eight points in their last 45 domestic matches, however their form against English sides is not quite so prolific. In the last 18 months alone, Manchester City and Arsenal have beaten Bayern, whilst Chelsea (and Arsenal again) have drawn matches against the same opposition. In fact, of their last 11 matches against English opposition, Bayern have won just four, also losing four and drawing three. Despite this, it would be a brave man to back United to win tonight and an even braver man to tip them on his blog but that's exactly what I am NOT going to do. Sorry... I do fancy United to be somewhat braver than in recent defeats and if anything being written off so hugely could be of benefit to their mentality tonight. In recent home maulings to Liverpool and City, United were still expected to perform, at least by their own support, but in tonight's match we have Man Utd taking on the role of David to Bayern's Goliath and this could well be to their advantage. Little to nothing is expected of Utd tonight; their form is woeful, especially at home and they are coming up against a Bayern side that have achieved an unprecedented level of quality in Germany for the past 2 seasons. United meanwhile have been terrorised in recent weeks by local rivals Liverpool and Man City but here, with United being forced into their own half for large periods, they could be galvanised into producing a heroic defensive display to earn them some kind of positive reaction from both supporters and media alike. This still seems unlikely in the face of overwhelming evidence but sometimes football is subject to more than form and statistics. History and honour can play a large part in reversing an expected pattern or trend when it comes to football and while Bayern are rightly priced as heavy favourites, this is still the Quarter Finals of the Champions League and Man Utd are still one of the great names in European football. Man utd were truly at a new low in the defeat to Liverpool, with no shape, invention, commitment and frankly looked clueless and disjointed throughout and it would be a real surprise if Bayern fail to grasp this tie by the scruff of the neck and emerge with anything less than a comfortable first leg victory but I have a feeling that United will score tonight and keep this tie alive to some degree. Both teams to score is priced at 8/11 and is a possible contender for my bets to be revealed later. Meanwhile in Spain, Barcelona host Atletico in a match that is really very hard to predict. If Diego Costa is ruled out for the visiting team then Barcelona can be backed with more confidence to win but seem awfully short at 8/15 to do so. Team news could be crucial here, but I cannot see many goals and I would expect either 1.0 or 1.1 in a tie that is likely to be close, competitive and possibly low scoring. Bo's Bonkers Bet Man utd 2 v 2 Bayern 16/1 First Goalscorer Wayne Rooney, 8/1 |
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