Attention turns to London tonight for the second of our Champions League semi-finals as Chelsea entertain La Liga leaders, Atletico Madrid in the only match of note across Europe today.
I tipped the all Madrid final on the day of the Champions League draw back in April seen below Bo's Champions League Tips (APRIL 12TH) Atletico Madrid vrs Real Madrid final - 3/1 Atletico to win the tournament - 7/2 One part of the double down and dusted, and I am not shifting on my earlier predictions of an all Madrid final. Chelsea of course are relentless at home and I do think this tie is 50/50, however, at these points, my gut feelings are impossible to ignore, and changing your mind is a betting no no. Besides, Chelsea have won it recently and Jose has been something of a prick lately (When is he not) and few will want to see him reach another final. Where there is a will, there is always a way. Of course, this matters little in the outcome of the football match and Mourinho is the ultimate big game manager and it takes a brave man to back against Chelsea, but that's exactly what I plan to do. As to whether I am brave or not? well that is perhaps debatable. Mourinho and Chelsea put on a defensive masterclass against Liverpool, but Atletico and Diego Simeone are a tougher nut to crack than the soft sweet nutella that is Liverpool and Brendan Rodgers. It was clear on Sunday that Rodgers had no tactical answer to Mourinho but Simeone is an all together more pragmatic manager and this promises to be a real chess match. Will Atletico look to play Chelsea at their own game? Almost certainly. They have been described as a mini Chelsea but this does the Spaniards a disservice on many levels. Not only are they built on a comparative shoe string budget but they are certainly not a team who like to park the bus to the extent with which Chelsea have done at points. They play a quick and direct style with tremendous discipline and organisation. At the very least they are Chelsea's equals (without the money) and tonight they can prove it. The first leg was one of the dullest football matches I have seen this season and tomorrow's could follow a similar pattern but for me the slight advantage rests with Atleti for a number of reasons. Jose is well aware that if Atletico can score then Chelsea will need 2 and Simeone's men are a well drilled machine unlikely to give up 2 goals. The only way they can win this tie, is if they score the first goal and hold on to their lead but the fact they failed to score an away goal in Spain means that they can ill afford to be overly adventurous tomorrow night. That fear of conceding an away goal will force Chelsea into a defensive pattern and given that Atletico can afford to concede and still only need 1 goal to take the tie to extra time, will allow them more freedom to attack, especially in the second half when the tension inside the stadium grows. These factors lead me to conclude that the pressure is on Chelsea tomorrow and it may well prove to be a bridge too far. My expectation is of a nervous Chelsea, unwilling to attack and an Atletico side willing to play direct and sit in tight. End result? under 2.5 goals unless Atletico can score an early goal and even then it still seems highly unlikely we are going to see a goal packed thriller tomorrow. I have a big feeling for Ateltico to get the first goal and return to Madrid to meet their masters in the final of all finals. The bookies cannot split them with both priced at 10/11 to qualify but I am happy to stick with my initial prediction and I expect Atletico to make it through. Whoever scores first will almost certainly win and I think Diego Costa can be the man to deliver. Costa is 11/2 to score first and this represents better value than the anytime price of 11/5 as I expect 1 goal could be enough. It promises to be low scoring, perhaps dirty, almost certainly niggly, scrappy, Jose style encounter but with a different outcome to the one who he has become accustomed in past years. Here are my selections. BET 1) STAKE 55 EUROS Atletico Madrid to qualify - 10/11 BET 2) STAKE 10 EUROS Diego Costa to score first goal - 11/2 BET 3) STAKE 10 EUROS Atletico to win 1.0 - 6/1 Comments are closed.
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