So with the World Cup now little more than a beautiful memory, it is time to turn our attention to the new football season which gets under way in the next 2 weeks and with this new season we shall introduce some small changes to Bobreaksthebookies.
With this being our first full season in the business, I will be establishing a set of rules and staking plans to ensure that all of my selections are clear, easy to follow and will be based on an initial starting bankroll of 1000 Euros so at all times it should be clear what our profits are (and losses...yeah right!) I will be using bet365 exclusively for my bets so all prices and selections can be found on their website and as in the last months, I will be looking to cover or “cash out” on potential winners when they are in an acceptable profit range. Remember the end game is profit and not the glory of a 5 game acca coming in at 33/1 (although I’m sure we will have plenty of those too) and while I do not have the resources to provide a live update on when to cash out, I will try to provide some good examples so that it becomes clearer as to when and how we cover our stakes to ensure profit. I will also be using a point’s based system to dictate my stake and strength of the bet. For example, 1 point is = to 1% of the bankroll and represents the lowest confidence in a selection, with 5 points at 5% the highest. IE, if I am tipping Chelsea to win at home with great confidence, then it would be a 5 point selection whereby I am staking 5% of my bankroll and giving it the maximum confidence. Conversely, if I am picking an ambitious 10/1 treble, then it will usually be a 1 point selection. The staking plan is as follows; Starting bankroll – 1000 Euros 1 point = 1% of bankroll i.e. 10 Euros and represents minimum confidence 5 points =5% of bankroll i.e. 50 Euros and represents maximum confidence I will never put more than 5 points on any single bet so it will always be either a 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 point selection and over the course of the week I will endeavour to post selections on most if not all of the days of the week and we will never stake more than 25% of our starting balance in any one week. I will usually post a “Bo’s Best Bet” which will be 1 selection at odds between 1.75 and 2.5 and a “Daily Double” which will be 2 selections with combined odds similar to that of the “Best Bet”. Other selections will include “Bo’s Tasty Treble” which will be 3 selections at odds of between 2.0 and 3.0 and my Amazinng Accas” will be a combination of 4 or more selections at higher odds. Our focus this season will be on the EPL, The Championship (England and Scotland) BUNDESLIGA, LA LIGA, SERIE A, DUTCH EREDIVISIE and the lower leagues in England will also feature heavily in my selections and you can expect the odd left field selection from other leagues across Europe. All of my selections will be researched thoroughly using a variety of different sources and most of the statistical analysis will come from whoscored.com who provide tremendous data which makes breaking the bookies more possible than ever before. The advent of the internet must have been the bookies worst nightmare some years ago as it is hard to imagine that the amount of analysis and research done these days would have been achieved by your regular arm chair punter who would have been stuck using his own knowledge and the local paper to place his bets. But not in the 21st century and certainly not at bobreaksbookies where all of my bets will be analysed in detail. Team news, form, historical comparisons and my own intuition will all be considered when picking my selections and given our form over the summer and in the final 2 months of last season, I am thoroughly confident that this will be a fine season for Bo and all those who chose to follow the tips. Just 2 more games to go in this summer’s World Cup and while Saturdays’ 3rd place play-off would usually be nothing more than a friendly kick about as evidenced in recent tournaments where goals have not been in short supply, this year’s edition features the emotionally destroyed and shell shocked Brazilians against Holland in what could be a really entertaining and feisty contest. Before we get into all that, I should mention that I nailed the 2nd semi final by tipping a “low scoring draw” (and 0.0 to my friend Calum...) and also landed the Argies to win on penalties at 12/1 but my stakes were rather low. The 3rd place playoff, derided by some, including Duch coach Louis van Gaal is usually nothing more than a sideshow before the final but this time with Brazil suffering such carnage following their 7.1 shellacking by Germany they will be doing everything in their power to restore even the tiniest smidgen of pride back into their performance although the worry must be that the Dutch, fresh from their own disappointing exit can really punish a side that looked completely destroyed at the final whistle on Tuesday. David Luiz looked like he would not be able to leave his house for a month, let alone play in another World Cup match in front of his people and whether he or his team-mates can cope is really the key question to ask. Changes surely will be made by both coaches and the inevitability of this match is surely that both teams will score, as has been the case in almost every one of these 3rd place play offs. History tells us that 8 of the last 9 have had BTTS and there have been over 2.5 goals in all 9 of those encounters. Indeed there were over 3.5 goals in 6 of those 9 as well. BTTS is priced at ½ while over 2.5 goals is 4/7 and over 3.5 is 5/4 and this could be the best bet of the weekend. I think the Brazilians will come out fighting with less pressure on their shoulders given that things can hardly get any worse for them while the Dutch are bound to attack their fragile opponents and discard the pragmatic style that seemed to cost them the win against Argentina, and it will be interesting (and vital) to see the line up’s for this tie but goals should be in order with 2 teams ready to go home but looking to go out with 1 final positive memory. Should we do away with what seems a pretty pointless fixture? No. Even if it is pointless. It’s football! It’s the world cup and I am pretty damn sad to see the back of it so 1 more game extra which while seeming pointless on paper is actually one I am rather looking forward to. It should be an entertaining night and it is going to be very interesting to see if the Brazilian fans even bother to show up or what kind of support they give them if they do or indeed what kind of reaction there will be if (or when ) they fall behind in the match. All signs point to a certain amount of hostility and for that alone this fixture contains more intrigue and spice than ever before. I think Jo will get the nod to start for Brazil ahead of the maligned and frankly awful Fred, and he can be backed at 8/1 for the first goal or 6/4 to hit the net in 90 minutes while there is the possibility that Huntelaar will replace a fatigued and perhaps past his best Robin Van Persie in the Dutch attack but either way, I won’t be tipping any goalscorers without seeing the team news although Oscar is another who might find his way towards the Dutch net. Goals goals goals is my feeling and with it being the penultimate fixture in this fine event, I plan on enjoying it before we get ready for a German party on Sunday... Bo’s Best Bets Brazil v Holland- BTTS 1/2 Brazil v Holland – over 2.5 goals 4/7 Brazil v Holland – over 3.5 goals 5/4 Bo’s Bonkers Bet(S) Brazil 3 v 2 Holland – 25/1 Brazil 2 v 3 Holland 25/1 What more can I say about last night that has not been said. Really there is little point trying to convey my feelings on what was a staggering event and surely the most shocking sporting result in the history of sport? well certainly in my lifetime and probably in most others.and while I did predict the Germans to qualify yesterday (albeit via extra time), noone could have anticipated such a desperately sad mauling of a once great nation.
Marcelo was an absolute disgrace and played like some kind of drunken pub player on a Sunday morning while David Luiz showed that screaming your head off during the national anthem is not a gauge of passion and courage. Why did he stop fucking moving for every attack? why did he and Marcelo continue to charge forward when 5.0 down like arrogant idiots totally oblivious to the carnage their play was causing? To a man the Brazilians froze more than i've ever seen any team do in that manner, but the performance of those 2 in particular was beyond belief and while you had to feel sorry for Luiz and also Fred who may never be able to walk the streets of his home country again, it was a performance so stunningly bad that it was barely comprehensible as to what we were watching and I actually felt genuinely saddened and angry to witness the death of the greatest footballing nation whom a whole country had placed it's faith in. To see the hosts lose is one thing, but the manner of their defeat was the most shocking, disturbing thing about the result and it really does signal a true changing of the guard. The Brazilian mystique is gone and until they go back to what they used to be good at, it will remain this way. Anyways, I said I would not go on about tit and so we moved forward to tonight's semi final between Holland and Argentina which will surely be a lot tighter. Surely? Schurrle? Not much to say, except I hope we see a competitive and exciting tie and not the Titantic sinking like we did last night. I fancy a tight, low scoring draw and really I cannot say who will make the final. Bo's Best Bet NO BET (only joking) Argentina v Holland Draw 11/5. Brazil v Germany
Bo’s Best Bets Brazil v Germany – draw 11/5 Germany to win in extra time 10/1 60 games played and just 4 to go (including the ever so pointless 3rd place play/off) and in less than a week’s time the World Cup will have reached its conclusion and a new or perhaps more likely an old name will be back on the trophy, to be fought over in Rio this coming Sunday thus bringing to an end what has been a spectacular and beautiful competition packed full of emotion, drama and an overwhelming sense of occasion that will not be matched in the next 2 tournaments in Russia and Qatar and perhaps never again. But before all that, and before Bo starts to cry, the semi-finals will take place over the next 2 days and splitting them is as complicated as it would be if they were 4 frozen burgers that have been lying in your freezer for the past decade desperately waiting for a stomach to fill. Of course if you know Bo, such an occurrence is highly unlikely. First up tonight, we have the hosts Brazil taking on Germany in the beautiful Belo Horizonte and tomorrow evening Argentina and Holland will battle it out for the right to line up in Rio on Sunday and what we have in store for us promises to be tense, tight and ultimately dramatic but whether goals are a plenty remains to be seen as the history would suggest we are in for some low-scoring encounters with 5 of the last 6 semi finals producing only 4 goals in regulation play. Brazil minus Neymar and Thiago Silva have it all to do but perhaps just a little of the expectation has been taken away from them following the loss of their star forward, and their captain for tonight’s match but this is a Brazil side that cannot be written off given their imperious home record (unbeaten in 12 years) and the fact they will have such fervent support behind them gives them every chance to reach the final for the first time since 2002. As for the Germans, well, they were my backup selection for the tournament but they have flattered to deceive at times and were rather fortunate to get past Algeria in the round of 16 and have certainly missed the creativity of Marco Reus in attack although Thomas Muller continues to be a star performer at big tournaments with 4 goals to his name so far. Beaten in the last 2 World Cup’s at the semi-final stage, the Germans have the opportunity to make it third time lucky this although the scale of their task in having to win in Brazil against the hosts is enormous. It is worth looking back to 2006 when the Germans were hosts at the semi-final stage and were beaten 2.0 in a classic encounter with Italy after extra time and it is perhaps possible that such a recreation is on the cards. I am desperate to see the Brazilians make it to the final, for financial and emotional reasons but with the loss of Neymar and Silva, I have a sad little feeling that it will be the German supporters celebrating long into the night. The loss of their talisman Neymar would not be so serious if they actually had another world class attacker but with Freddie Flintstone and the less than incredible Hulk in attack, Brazil look seriously weakened and if they are to have a chance then the selection of coach Scolari will be vital. Bernard, Willian or Ramires are the3 in contention to replace Neymar and if Scolari is brave he will pick Bernard or if he prefers the pragmatic route then Ramires is the more likely to start. I think we could see something very similar to the semi-final in 2006 and as such, my main bet for tonight is the draw at 11/5 but I can see the Germans taking it in extra time. Germany to win in extra time is a generous 10/1. No matter what the outcome is tonight, all we can hope for is that this tournament gets a final surge of excitement to truly enforce the opinion that this is one of if not the best World Cup’s in the modern era and tonight’s match is a vital part in sealing the legacy and memory of what has been a super competition. It truly breaks my heart to see the end of this tournament, a World Cup I had looked forward to for the best part of 7 years and as I mentioned earlier, with the next tournaments heading to the footballing hotbeds of Russia and Qatar, it is fair to say, that for me, this is the end of the World Cup. Forever. That may sound like hyperbole and yes I am sure I will be watching again in 4 years when the circus comes to Russia but the fact remains that FIFA is a truly despicable organisation that has tainted our beautiful game in recent years with corruption, bribery, humans rights issues and a shocking disregard for the people who make the game possible, the fans... and with that little fart of a man Sep Blatter standing for re-election, the corruption and tragedy looks set to continue unabated for another 4 years at least. But that is all for another day; today is about the glory of the greatest sporting competition coming to its climax and I for one cannot wait to see what the next games have in store for us. Come on Brazil!!! Well, I had a lovely week off work and due to my being lazy and busy with the relaxation, I did not post any previews for the last 16 and last 8 ties which pretty much all went with the favourites although some of them had to play through extra time in order to qualify but ultimately, there has not been any shocks and the knockout phase has not quite lived up to the expectations that the group phase had promised.
In terms of the tournament betting, Neymar’s injury is a huge blow for the competition and destroyed my top goalscorer tip for Neymar. Fortunately however, I collected a free 20 euro bet from coral last week and I whipped it on James Rodriguez to be top goalscorer after his double salvo in the round of 16. The 11/4 odds were not huge but given it was a free bet and he went on to bag another in the quarters, I will stand to collect 55 from a completely free bet on what now looks a very likely outcome. His new price of 8/11 odds on would suggest this was a well invested freebie. Overall it has been a good tournament for the predictions with the quarter finals containing 6 out of 8 of my tips and the semis featuring 3 of 4 (Brazil, Germany and Argentina) with only Holland and Costa Rica the teams I did not expect to make it as far as they did. My top team goalscorer treble tip of Sanchez, Messi and Muller at 38/1 looks certain to return as a winner now with Sanchez already winning for eliminated Chile, and the other 2 clear of their teammates by 2 and 3 goals respectively. This is my best bet of the tournament and I will be delighted to land such a big priced winner on what looked a very solid prediction. If Brazil wins the tournament (more on that later) and Rodriguez finishes as top scorer, coupled with my top team scorer treble, then we will be looking at a return of 190 Euros based on a total outlay of just 21.50. Given that I also tipped the Germans as my backup to Brazil at 13/2 odds pre tournament and I also tipped up a Brazil v Argentina final at 8/1 odds then it’s fair to say that I have called this tournament pretty well. I spoke about James Rodriguez having the potential to “light up the tournament” although little did I realise just how good he would turn out to be and it is a real shame that the Colombians were eliminated at the quarters and not allowing young Rodriguez the chance to really set some remarkable records. As it is he may yet win the Golden Ball and the Golden Boot and that would be some achievement for a player eliminated at the quarters. Overall my pre tournament tips posted on June 11th have proven to be excellent. My pre tournament stake of £120 Euros on a multitude of bets has already returned 70 Euros for my first weekend acca, 60 Euros for my teams to win their groups bet, and if Brazil are to beat Argentina in the final, along with my top team goalscorer bet (sanchez, messi, muller) then our return would be 245 Euros from those 4 bets alone. If Muller can find a way to bag a couple of more goals in his next 2 matches then we could be looking at a very good return but either way it has been pretty decent but I will save the gloating until after Sunday’s final when i will announce my final totals. |
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