Our first group in the competition sees hosts Russia taking on former African nations champions Egypt, South American heavyweights Uruguay as well as Asian qualifiers, Saudi Arabia. Group A
The Uruguayans are group favourites @4/5 odds on and with Suarez and Cavani in their squad once more, I expect the 2011 Copa America champions to have enough to take top spot ahead of Saudi Arabia and Egypt who, with Mo Salah(fitness permitting), can upset the hosts and steal in for the second qualifying spot in the group. Russia have struggled badly in the last 2 years, falling to their lowest ever FIFA world ranking (70), winning only 6 of their last 26 matches (losing 13) and just 2 of their last 10. While they may have the backing of their home support, President Putin, FIFA, et al, I still expect them to struggle for qualification despite a relatively weak group. Indeed, the Russians actually come into the tournament as the lowest team in those rankings and while that has been affected by a lack of competitive fixtures, expectations are low following their failure to win any of their friendlies in 2018. The Russian’s main rival for qualification should come in the form of Egypt who come into the competition in decent form and if Mo Salah is fit to take his place in their team, I would fancy them to perhaps have enough to qualify ahead of the hosts who are too short for me at just 4/5 odds on to make the 2nd round. Saudi Arabia are favourites to finish bottom of the section having failed to win any of their last 10 group matches in the World Cup (since 1994), collecting only 2 points in the process. While they might be able to pick up a draw in one or maybe even 2 of the 3 matches, I still expect the Asians to finish bottom of the section @2/5 odds on. Ultimately, two things look likely in this opening group; Uruguay should win the group and the Saudis should finish bottom. The other qualification place looks likes a coin-toss to me and with Egypt odds against, and having a star like Salah, their selection may well provide the value in this section Best Bets Uruguay to win the group @4/5 - 3.5 stars Uruguay and Egypt to qualify @7/2 - 1.5 stars Russia under 5 points @6/4 - 2 stars Russia not to qualify @9/4 - 2.5 stars Group B Group B looks relatively straightforward on paper for the two European heavyweights of Spain and Portugal with Morocco and Iran unlikely to provide too much resistance for two of this year’s pre-tournament favourites. Spain starts the competition as 3rd favourites @6/1 behind tournament favourites Brazil and Germany and given the strength of their squad, I do fancy the 2010 winners to go deep in this year’s event once more. The Spaniards are unbeaten in 18 fixtures coming into the competition with only 3 defeats in their last 34 and having spanked Argentina (minus Mr Messi) 6.1 in their last friendly outing in March, they come into the tournament in fine form and I expect them to reach the semi-finals or better at 11/8 odds. European champions Portugal should join the Spanish in the knockout phase although the odds of both progressing are short @2/5. Still, it would be highly surprising if either of these sides failed to make it out of this group and i#m happy to take these two as part of a bigger qualification acca. Cristiano Ronaldo had another tremendous campaign with Real Madrid and you would have to expect him to emerge as Portugal’s top goalscorer here @8/13 odds with the World player of the year still posting some rather remarkable numbers in the goals department despite his advancing years. Indeed, Ronaldo has scored a sensational 44 goals in his last 49 appearances for Portugal having scored a relatively paltry 37 goals in his first 100 caps for his country. He actually seems to be getting more prolific with age. Prolific or arrogant? Certainly both. His overall career totals of 81 goals in 149 appearances for Portugal and 450 goals in just 438 games for Real Madrid are the stuff of fantasy. Is there any adjective sufficient for those numbers? Sensesmazingcrediblicios. That’s right. He deserves his own adjective! Still, given those stats, I'm backing Ronaldo as top team scorer @8/13 odds on. While Spain and Portugal should emerge from the group, I won’t pick a winner of the section with the two heavyweights clashing on the opening weekend of the event. A draw in that Friday evening fixture looks quite likely so it may come down to goal difference when deciding who wins the group. I do expect Morocco to provide decent opposition with the African side unbeaten in 15 coming into the tournament so I’ll take Iran to finish bottom of the section @5/6 odds as well as the two European sides to progress @2/5 odds. Best Bets Iran to finish bottom @5/6 - 3 stars Spain and Portugal to qualify @2/5 - 4 stars Ronaldo top team scorer (Portugal) @8/13 - 3.5 stars Comments are closed.
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